Data en su 30s reddit

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RAGE 2020 Autumn Grand Finals (Fortune's Hand) Review

2020.09.06 20:41 pukahuntus RAGE 2020 Autumn Grand Finals (Fortune's Hand) Review

RAGE 2020 Autumn Grand Finals (Fortune's Hand) Review

https://preview.redd.it/hem5h3j3vil51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=31b92ef7c0a3acd25982f45537934de8b4898dd1
With 10,000 competitors, a grand prize of ¥4,000,000 & 2 World Grand Prix spots up for grabs; RAGE is among the biggest tournaments in Shadowverse. 8 players remained, having proved themselves among the very best. Only one could be crowned Champion.

A reflection on Fortune's Hand

Approaching the mini expansion, Fortune's Hand was regarded one of the most diverse metas in Shadowverse history, featuring all 8 classes in RAGE Autumn Playoffs. This set an incredibly high standard for the rest of the expansion. Following nerfs & new cards introduced, the scene became dominated by 3 archetypes; Spellboost Rune, Evo Sword & Artifact Portal. As the most powerful, consistent decks available, a gap developed between them & Tier 2. In this situation the competitive scene will often become narrow - forming a clear triangle around these decks. see early JCG results for example
Yet over time, significant counters emerged. Spellboost Rune had grown to towering prominence, slightly favoured against both Portal & Sword. This provided the focal point for an incoming counterstrike, spearheaded by Burn Blood, Item Shop & Roach Forest.
Alongside the reemergence of Shadowcraft, these developments provided the most diverse RAGE Finals ever, featuring 7 classes, joint highest with DBNE.

The Final - "The Brainmaster" vs "Naniwa's Love Fighter"

Fee vs Shimon. David vs Goliath. Bambi vs Godzilla. Shimon had already booked his place at the World Grand Prix this year, coming Runner up in Spring with his trademark Hades Shadow. He was determined not to miss out on the trophy a 2nd time. But fee, the only player to bring Control Haven in his lineup, wouldn't let things be easy.
The set began with a rampaging start from Fee's Burn Blood. Neither player included any of the "Triangle superstars" in their lineup. Burn Blood played an influential role for both, as the highest performing archetype on the day.
Aggressive openings such as this, capitalised by Baal's unavoidable burn damage were an ongoing theme throughout.
The final set took all 5 games to be decided. Shimon clawing his way back from a 2-1 deficit. A fantastic set throughout, Shimon showing off the powerplays which bring him back to Hades Shadow expansion after expansion.
Fee did well to stifle a wince as Lara's animation played for the second time.
In the end, Fee was unable to claim a decisive victory with underdog Control Haven. It appeared to be something of a weak link in his lineup, losing back to back in the Final stage, and a fortuitous win vs Suuuum's Sword in the Semi Final. But this should take nothing away from Fee, who gained many admirers with a hard thought effort throughout. As Runner Up, he may have a chance to face Shimon again in the future World Grand Prix.
Overall Shimon deserved the Championship. Showing consistency, exemplary reading of the meta & resolute demeanour throughout the entire tournament. Finding the way to victory, even when cards may not have appeared to be on his side.
Congratulations Shimon. RAGE 2020 Autumn Champion!
Results/Decklists
Position Name Deck 1 Deck 2 Deck 3
Champion Shimon (Accel) Roach Forest Hades/OTK Shadow Burn Blood
Runner Up fee Burial Rite Burn Blood Control Haven
3rd Suuuum Evo Sword Spellboost Rune Hades Shadow
3rd 咆哮のラム Evo Sword Spellboost Rune Artifact Portal
Top 8 あられ Evo Sword Dirt Rune Artifact Portal
Top 8 mitsuya Spellboost Rune Burial Rite Burn Blood
Top 8 のん / DRS (Natura) Roach Forest Item Shop Rune Burn Blood
Top 8 すんすん Evo Sword Spellboost Rune Burial Rite

Breakdown
Visual Breakdown
Class Total Details
Rune 6 4 Spellboost, 1 Dirt, 1 Item Shop
Shadow 5 3 Burial Rite, 2 Hades
Sword 4 Evo
Blood 4 Burn
Forest 2 Roach (1 accel, 1 natura)
Portal 2 Artifact
Haven 1 Control

Match Data
Matchup results during Grand Finals. Score indicated on the right.
Archetype Matches Played Win - Loss Winrate
Burn Blood 9 7 - 2 77.8%
Evo Sword 9 4 - 5 44.4%
Roach Forest 9 3 - 6 33.3%
Spellboost Rune 8 3 - 5 37.5%
Burial Rite 7 4 - 3 57.1%
Hades Shadow 6 4 - 2 66.7%
Control Haven 6 2 - 4 33.3%
Artifact Portal 4 2 - 2 50%
Dirt Rune 2 1 - 1 50%
Item Shop 0 / /
  • Out of 30 matches, the player going 1st won 18 times (60%).

RAGE 2020 Autumn Grand Finals used a Best of 5: 3 deck, No Ban Format
For more information visit the official RAGE website: Here.
The VoD is available on Youtube & Openrec
If you'd like to read my writeup on the playoffs, click here
submitted by pukahuntus to Shadowverse [link] [comments]


2020.09.01 00:33 pog99 Out Of Africa (Not) Debunked: Richard Fuerle and "Erectus Walks Among Us".

Did a blog post as a guest author a while back regarding the absurd assertions about human origins, sadly during an era when full comprehension on topics such as DNA introgression or precise routes have been left in much ambiguity. It goes over the morphological, fossil and genetic issues.
Having now read sections of the book that deal with this, boy, where to start?
  1. Argues that African Erectus, compared to Chinese/ Eurasian Erectus, was stagnant. This is despite the fact that Ergaster showed evidence of Achulean technology well before Chinese erectus, with the percentage being far more prevalent Westward than Eastward. Same with thbe Levallois toolkit.
  2. Uses the Liujang skull as evidence to debunk OOA. Conveniently, in a related argument, I brought up evidence showing that the 150k date, as oppose to the 67k date, is unlikely. As well, a scientists groups this with 100k fossils also found in China classified as Sapiens, one pointing out how Sapiens are only recently found in Northern China. This is consistent with a Southern Route.
  3. He ignores evidence of Africans and derived groups, like African Americans, have shorter torsos and narrower chests and pelvises, similar to to the trends seen in modern Homo sapiens as opposed to Archaic humans. Archaic humans from China and Europe were very wide.
  4. Data on the Sacral Index of races, where a lower one is is "ape-like" doesn't support Richard Fuerle's pattern when one sees his more recent data provided as well as measurements done in 1886.
  5. Criticizes the African Eve and "Founder effects" due to poor math and not accounting for admixture. Critics such as Nei and Templeton eventually reviewed the evidence that ultimately validated the dates and geographical origin. See a recent example from the sub-reddit that cites a replication of the Basalness of Africans.
  6. Uses Oreopithecus to make an argument about Eurasian apes being Bipedal. Said specimen is now believe to have not been ancestral or signficiantly related to the Homo Line.
  7. Ignores large evidence of technological and abstract thinking in the African Middle Stone age (Klaises Cave or Border Cave) pointing to Human modern behavior.
  8. Rarely mentions any significant tool making industry in a comprehensive manner.
  9. Alleges that Herto and Omo Kibish lacked Modern Human behavior. That is basically incorrect.
  10. Footnote comparing distances of modern human groups to neanderthal mtdna is obviously muddled. Conflates different numbers from different methods of measuring as "variable" results.
I will discuss other issues of claims from a particular source he attributes credit to.
Here and here is the work of Ronald Fonda, whose basic explanation is that modern humans originated from Eurasia, particularly developing in the North due to "Cold Winters theory". Aside from the fact that dogs were not domesticated over 100k ago, restricting our analyses of Homo Sapiens to China shows that Northern China did not have Modern Humans until very recently, around 40k. Older derived forms of humans are mainly in Southern China.
Cold Winters Theory, likewise, is based on modern IQ and brain size data. It does not, however, use direct data on Modern or ancient Hunter-gatherers to support it's inference on Hunting verses gathering for intelligence selection. Such data would refute it.
And, despite his suggestions, the fossil record doesn't support an into Africa origin of Sapiens. Early finds in the Middle East (177-194K Israel) or Greece ( 210k, but see here, here and here) were eventually replaced by Neanderthals, while Older Sapiens fossils from the Middle Stone Age (300-200k Jebel Irhoud, Eliye Spring, Guomde and formerly Florisbad {see John Hawks Blog}) were succeed by future Sapiens populations 120k-60k ( Eysai, Aterian Dar Es Soltane, Klaises River {also see here}, Border Cave, Die Kelders, Blombos, Sibudu, Diepkloof and Laetoli ).
While Eurasia may play a bigger role in Human origins than assumed (also see the Quesem Cave and Zuttiyeh), it is certainly not in the simplistic pattern argued here.
submitted by pog99 to badscience [link] [comments]


2020.08.29 12:16 Samus_ Resumen de r/Uruguay - 2020-08-29

Método Wim Hof: se animan a probarlo? 19 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Más de 200 empresas argentinas de tecnología e importación buscan radicarse en Uruguay (en los estudios jurídicos no paran de sonar los teléfonos) 15 comentarios (1 nuevo)
¿Quién ha logrado dejar las benzodiacepinas exitosamente? específicamente Clonazepam 21 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Vengo trabajando hace tiempo en un videojuego narrativo inspirado en arquitecturas Rioplatenses e Italianas. Quería compartir un screenshot de una de mis escenas 3D, en la cual reconstruí una casa chorizo. 95 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Manini is that u ? 20 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Tengo un amigo que invento esto. Hay algún emprendedor con un pequeño capital para invertir? 57 comentarios (2 nuevos)
¿Con que país les gusta menos jugar videojuegos? 44 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Llego tarde para la nostalgia, pero se acuerdan de esto? Alguien sigue teniendo? 29 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Ke rica cola. 12 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Iconoclastas I 24 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Valor de patentes y seguros de auto en Uruguay 5 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Qué le hace falta al sub? Tenes alguna idea para mejorarlo? Este sub para la cantidad de gente que tiene es más activo que otros subs de países latinos, pero podría estar mejor. Tenes alguna idea para mejorarlo?. 37 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Esto fue hoy en ruta 5 29 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Aquella noche Colonial 2 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Rayo acaba de destruir estatua de la libertad de Plaza Rivera. Mercedes. 20 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Busco spot de fin del horario de protección al menor de los 90 9 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Arrancó #varonesdelrock, ya tengo el pop y la coca fría, todo listo para ver el mundo arder. Cuándo se vendrá el #varonesdeuruguay?. 43 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Cepal dijo que "las cifras son lo que son", aunque destacó las fortalezas de Uruguay 47 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Arranco la temporada de videos de mulitas arrastrando bichos 30 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Porque recalcan que es un femicidio? 66 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Me lo recomendó youtube... Que les parece? 12 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Jueves emprendedor. 14 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Me parece que no... Bienvenidos al sistema educativo uruguayo, en el cual la veracidad de las fuentes no se consulta en absoluto antes de publicar una prueba semestral, muchas gracias educación social y cívica :)) 34 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Campeonato Street Fighter 2 made in Uruguay 54 comentarios (15 nuevos)
@JuanchiHounie: Una partida (única) de 1500 pesos a aquellos afiliados al sindicato que participen del paro. 31 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Pasaje Policía Vieja y Bartolomé Mitre - 1920 12 comentarios (1 nuevo)
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Cumple en Uruguay be like... 33 comentarios (2 nuevos)
¿Es posible? 18 comentarios (1 nuevo)
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Gente deseando que alguien haya tenido sexo con menores para ir preso. 31 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Sindicato Médico del Uruguay dejará de llenar la historia clínica electrónica de los pacientes como medida de protesta. 48 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Que miércoles está pasando? 24 comentarios (2 nuevos)
PROBLEMA TARJETA PREX 8 comentarios (2 nuevos)
“Un presupuesto que va a hacer hincapié en las adicciones, esos miles de uruguayos por lo general jóvenes que son adictos y no tienen un tratamiento por parte del estado a su alcance.” -Lacalle 26/8/2020. "El dealer de Luis" -Argimón 19/6/2020. En fin la hipotenusa. 30 comentarios (7 nuevos)
Lacalle cumple medio año en Uruguay con los mejores datos de Covid de América 11 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Hay subreddit de Fotografía en Uruguay? 4 comentarios (1 nuevo)
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El último día de La Pasiva de 18 y Ejido 11 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Gilberto Vázquez admitió en 2006 que el Ejército ejecutó, torturó y realizó el “segundo vuelo” 16 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Uruguay recuperó solo la cuarta parte de los US$ 16 millones que gastó para solventar el juicio con la minera Aratirí 17 comentarios (4 nuevos)
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Cosse infiltrada en recorrida de Laura Raffo. 19 comentarios (5 nuevos)
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Viajar con mascotas en taxi 16 comentarios (11 nuevos)
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Disculparán mi ignorancia, pero desconocía que los Tatús son carnívoros 20 comentarios (15 nuevos)
Necesito un video de Lacalle caminando hacia la cámara. 6 comentarios (2 nuevos)
¿Limitar una moto a 200cc? 5 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Viernes de legislación. 18 comentarios (18 nuevos)
Racismo en Uruguay. 97 comentarios (97 nuevos)
Recibí insultos de una militante política 65 comentarios (65 nuevos)
[CONFIRMADO] Blackpink es de uruguay 8 comentarios (8 nuevos)
Tabletas digitalizadoras 12 comentarios (12 nuevos)
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El lado B de Yendo a la casa de Damián. 0 comentarios
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Declaración de Gilberto Vázquez ante el Tribunal de Honor para Oficiales Superiores 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
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Gilberto Vázquez y los DDHH: lo viejo, lo nuevo y lo de siempre 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
Denuncia penal de ASSE a la gestión de Álvaro Villar en el Hospital Maciel 3 comentarios (3 nuevos)
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Ya que estamos con las fotos, me presento 0 comentarios
Thread de @gusgomezgermano : Nueva sentencia de la Suprema Corte de Justicia confirma constitucionalidad de la Ley de Medios de #Uruguay: el gobierno deberá garantizar que determinados partidos de la selección uruguaya se transmitan en TV abierta 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Ya que estamos con las fotos, me presento 21 comentarios (21 nuevos)
Me recomiendan juegos singleplayer? 49 comentarios (49 nuevos)
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Renner good job con los stickers. 3 comentarios (3 nuevos)
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¿Malas experiencias con yerba canarias? (Ej. Dolor estomacal) 15 comentarios (15 nuevos)
Democracia con Voto obligatorio 2 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Visto en Twitter 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
Veo que en Uruguay se construye cada vez más con steel framing. No sé porque, pero como que no me convence. Alguno vive o a podido estar en casas construidas así? que tal son con respecto a la construcción clásica? la sensación de estar en una casa así como es? es cómoda?. 11 comentarios (11 nuevos)
Streamers Uruguay 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
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L'Uruguay es el mejor país y es masculino según Francia 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
Disputa con inmobiliaria, AITA? 26 comentarios (26 nuevos)
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El director general del Ministerio de Defensa Nacional, Fabián Martínez presentó ante la Fiscalía de Corte, la documentación relativa al Tribunal de Honor del coronel en situación de reforma Gilberto Vázquez, realizado en el año 2006. 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Me le pare de mano al presidente 16 comentarios (16 nuevos)
El tio sam aprendió que... Uuruguay es el mejor paiis 25 comentarios (25 nuevos)
¿Qué preferís que te digan? 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Se armó. 2 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Escracharon a Roberto Musso en la cuenta @varonesdelrock 49 comentarios (49 nuevos)
Uruguay es una nación masculina, bien ahí los Chad uruguayos 3 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Bien ahi Uruguay haciéndose conocer 8 comentarios (8 nuevos)
curb your enthusiasm musiquita 0 comentarios
12 ways to divide South America. Inspired by Yakov Tsetsov's "Atlas of prejudice". Made by Luis "Locoluis" González 29 comentarios (29 nuevos)
Pokémon go 9 comentarios (9 nuevos)
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El racismo uruguayo: silencioso y latente 8 comentarios (8 nuevos)
De Varonescarnaval y Varonesrock. Viene varonespolítica. 30 comentarios (30 nuevos)
Existe la brecha salarial entre hombres y mujeres en Uruguay? hay algún lugar que detalle muy bien los datos? 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
Chivito 24 comentarios (24 nuevos)
4 comentarios (4 nuevos)
VaronesCarnaval y VaronesRock 0 comentarios
Canciones uruguayas para Animal Crossing? 0 comentarios
Uruguay pegandola con los cielos 0 comentarios
Discúlpenme, pero esto me llena de orgullo. Vamo Arriba Uruguay 🇺🇾🇺🇾🇺🇾 0 comentarios
Recorrida por los laboratorios del Clemente Estable 0 comentarios
MSP aprobó nueva técnica de testeo: cómo funciona y para qué se va a usar 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
2020-08-28 07:00 - 2020-08-29 07:00
submitted by Samus_ to ResumenDeUruguay [link] [comments]


2020.08.27 02:04 menem95 Análisis The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)

Hola! Hace un par de semanas compartí una breve investigación que había hecho sobre American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) que fue relativamente bien recibida. Ahora comparto esta que hice sobre Disney (NYSE:DIS), quizás a alguien le sirva. Por supuesto recibo criticas, sugerencias, puteadas, etc.
-Link análisis AAL: https://www.reddit.com/merval/comments/i7eh5d/an%C3%A1lisis_american_airlines_nasdaqaal/

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) es una compañía multinacional estadounidense dedicada principalmente a los medios de comunicación masivos y a la industria del entretenimiento. Su sede está en Burbank, California, EEUU. La compañía cotiza bajo el ticker DIS, en Nueva York, a un precio de US$ 127,44 al 23/8/2020. Goza de un tamaño prominente, teniendo 223 mil empleados y una capitalización de mercado de 230.292M de dólares. Disney integra el índice Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) desde 1991, y también integra el S&P 100 y el S&P 500.
Evaluando más en detalle el desempeño de la acción, la acción cotiza US$ 127,44 al 23/8/2020. Hace aproximadamente un año, el 26/8/2019 la acción cotizaba a US$ 137,26 lo que representa una caída aproximada del 7,15% anual (TTM). La caída es mas pronunciada YTD, Disney cotizaba US$ 148,2 a principios de año, por lo que al día de hoy la caída seria del 14%. No obstante, la acción a recuperado bastante valor después de la caída pronunciada que sufrió en Febrero-Marzo, llegando a cerrar a US$ 85,76 el 23/3/20 (habiendo subido un 48% desde entonces). Es para destacar que desde dicha caída se vio un significativo incremento en el volumen operado del papel. Mirando brevemente las medias móviles, vemos que la cotización actual esta por encima del promedio de 30 días (US$ 122,73), del de 90 días (US$ 115,98) y de 200 días (US$ 124,12). Con respecto al mercado, al 25/8, desde comienzo de año Disney se desempeñó por debajo del S&P 500 (5,7%), y del DJIA (-2,15%), con desempeño de -12,42% YTD.[1]
La compañía fue fundada en 1923 por los hermanos Walt y Roy Disney. A lo largo de su historia, Disney se consolidó como líder en la industria de animación estadounidense y luego diversificó sus negocios dedicándose a la producción de películas live-action, televisión y parques temáticos. A partir de 1980 Disney creo y adquirió diversas divisiones corporativas, para penetrar en mercados que fueran mas allá de sus marcas insignia orientadas a productos familiares.
Disney es conocida por su división de estudios cinematográficos (The Walt Disney Studios), que incluye Walt Disney Pictures, Walt Disney Animation Studios, Pixar, Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm, 20th Century Studios, Searchlight Pictures y Blue Sky Studios. Otras unidades y segmentos de la compañía son Disney Media Networks; Disney Parks, Experiences and Products y Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer & International. A través de estas unidades, Disney posee y opera canales de televisión como ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, Freeform, FX y National Geographic, así como también venta de publicidad, merchandising y música. También tiene divisiones de producción teatral (Disney Theatrical Group) y posee un grupo de 14 parques temáticos alrededor del mundo.
Es evidente la complejidad de las operaciones de Disney, por lo que vale la pena ir un poco mas a fondo en la composición de los segmentos operativos de Disney, en base al reporte anual de 2019 (mas representativo que el ultimo reporte trimestral en medio de la pandemia), donde encontramos cuatro segmentos relevantes. El primer segmento, denominado “Media Networks”, compuesto principalmente por los canales domésticos de TV, este segmento generó 24.827M US$ de ingresos en 2019 (un 34,7% del total). El segundo segmento es el de “Parks, Experiences and Products”, compuesto por los parques temáticos, resorts y cruceros de las compañías, así como también de las licencias de los nombres, personajes y marcas de la compañía y de los productos de merchandising propios, este segmento reportó 26.225M US$ de ingresos en 2019 (un 36,66% del total, el segmento mas relevante de la compañía). El tercer segmento, es el de “Studio Entertainment” que contiene las operaciones de producción de películas, música y obras de teatro, así como también los servicios de post-produccion. Este segmento reportó 11.127M US$ (un 15,55% del total). El ultimo segmento, quizás el mas interesante es “Direct-to-Consumer & International”, donde además de contener las operaciones internacionales de TV y servicios de distribución de contenido digital como apps y paginas web, se incluyen las unidades de servicios de streaming de Disney, compuestas principalmente por Hulu, ESPN+ y Disney+. Este sector reporto ingresos por 9.349M US$ (un 13,07%, enorme incremento respecto del 5,6% que reportó en 2018).
Respecto a la distribución territorial de las operaciones, es notorio el bagaje del mercado doméstico (EEUU y Canadá) donde concentraron en 2019 el 72,6% de las operaciones. Vale destacar también que hubo un incremento significativo interanual de las operaciones en los mercados de Asia-Pacífico (del 9,3% al 11,2%) y en Latinoamérica y otros mercados (del 3,09% al 4,61%).
En lo que respecta a la política de dividendos de la compañía, encontré registros de pago constante de dividendos desde al menos 1989. El ultimo dividendo fue el 13/12, habiendo pagado $0,88 y arrojando un dividend yield anual de 1,2%. La compañía decidió omitir el dividendo semestral correspondiente al primer semestre de 2020 por la pandemia del COVID-19.[2]
Evaluando un poco la posición financiera de la empresa, a junio de 2020, según el balance presentado, Disney tenia activos corrientes por 41.330M US$ y pasivos corrientes por 30.917M US$, lo que resulta en un working capital (activos corrientes netos, activos corrientes menos pasivos corrientes) de 10.413 US$. El working capital entonces representa el 33,68% de los pasivos corrientes (Con lo cual, el current ratio es de 1,34 apreciándose una mejoría respecto del 0,9 reportado en septiembre 2019). En relación con la deuda de largo plazo, la podemos estimar en 70.052M US$ (borrowings + other long-term liabilities), dado que en septiembre 2019 la cifra era de 51.889M US$, vemos que sufrió un aumento considerable (en el orden del 35%).
Respecto a los flujos de efectivo de Disney, vemos que en lo que va del año fiscal (septiembre 2019-junio 2020) Disney reportó flujo de efectivo por operaciones por 5949M US$, casi lo mismo que reportó para todo el año fiscal 2019 (5984M US$). Viendo la evolución de 10 años del CF de operaciones:

Año (sept-sept) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CF de operaciones (mill. USD) 6578 6994 7966 9452 9780 11385 13136 12343 14295 5984
Dif. Anual % 6,32 13,9 18,65 3,47 16,41 15,38 -6,04 15,81 -58,14
Viendo la evolución en 10 años del flujo de efectivo de operaciones, vemos que en 2019 hubo una drástica reversión de la tendencia al alza que se venia reportando (con un 58,14% de caída interanual). Esto se debe en parte a la política de adquisiciones de la empresa, que vemos reflejado en el flujo de efectivo por inversiones, equivalente en 2019 a -15.096M US$ (muy por encima del promedio de 2010-2018, equivalente a -4179,4M US$).
En lo relativo a las ganancias de la compañía, para el Q2 2020[3] Disney reportó pérdidas por 4721M US$ (contra una ganancia de 1760M US$ para el Q2 2019). La situación se atenúa considerando las cifras para los últimos nueve meses (Q4 2019-Q2 2020), donde Disney totalizó perdidas por 1813M US$. No obstante, la situación del COVID-19 distorsiona nuestro análisis a largo plazo, por lo que para analizar la evolución interanual desde los últimos 10 años, utilizare los datos de los reportes anuales (datando el ultimo de septiembre 2019).

Año (sept-sept) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Income (mill. USD) 3963 4807 5682 6136 7501 8382 9391 8980 12598 11054
Dif. Anual % 21,3 18,2 7,99 22,25 11,75 12,04 -4,38 40,29 -12,26
Como se puede ver en el cuadro, pese al revés sufrido por las obvias complicaciones de la pandemia, el historial de ganancias de Disney es sólido. La compañía tuvo en los últimos 10 años, 2 años de contracción en las ganancias (2017 y 2019), pero en términos generales, las ganancias crecieron a una tasa promedio del 13,02% los últimos 10 años. Para evaluar el crecimiento general estos 10 años, si tomamos el promedio de los primeros 3 años (2010-2012) y el promedio de los últimos 3 (2017-2019), las ganancias de Disney crecieron un 125,8%.
Mirando un poco de ratios, analizaré el EPS (Earnings Per Share) de la acción. Para el Q2 2020, Disney presentó un EPS negativo, de -2,61, contra un 0,98 obtenido en el Q2 2019. Refiriéndonos al desempeño pre-pandemia, el EPS promedio anual de los últimos 5 años fue de 6,3 y el ultimo EPS anual reportado (septiembre 2019) estaba ligeramente por encima, alrededor de 6,68.[4] En lo respectivo al Price/Earning, el P/E (TTM) al valor de la acción del 23/8 es de -208,9. No obstante, si eliminamos la distorsión producto de la pandemia, calculando las ganancias promedio de los últimos 3 años (de acuerdo con los reportes anuales), es de 18,38, lo cual es un valor aceptable dada la coyuntura de los últimos años. En lo que respecta al Price-To-Book (P/B) ratio, el book value a junio 2020, es de 50, por lo que el P/B (siempre al precio del 23/8) es de 2,54, un valor razonable dados los promedios de los sectores en los que Disney tiene incidencia.[5] El ultimo ratio a analizar es Price/Assets (P/E*P/B) que, (usando P/E con promedio de las ganancias de los últimos 3 años) arroja un valor de 46,68.
Sobre el soporte institucional de la compañía, Disney tiene un apoyo considerable, calculado en el 66,42% del flotante en manos de instituciones. Los tenedores líderes son Vanguard con el 8,22%; BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) con el 6,32% y State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) con el 4,19%. Otros tenedores significantes (1-2%) son Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), MorganStanley (NYSE:MS) y Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK).[6]
En lo respectivo al management de Disney, la primera consideración importante es respecto al legendario CEO de la compañía, Robert “Bob” Iger, quien, en febrero de este año, después de posponerlo por años, decidió dar un paso al costado como CEO de la compañía, dejando a cargo al director del segmento de Parques y Resorts, Bob Chapek. Esto duró poco, y en abril Iger volvió a tomar las riendas de la compañía.[7] No obstante, es altamente probable que, una vez estabilizado el panorama Iger retome su frustrado plan de dar un paso al costado.[8] En lo relativo a la compensación, Iger cobró 47.525.560 US$, los executive officers una remuneración promedio de 11.319.422 US$ y el empleado promedio de Disney cobró 52.184 US$.[9]
Una cosa que llama la atención del balance de Disney (septiembre 2019), es el incremento notorio del goodwill (de 31.269M US$ a 80.293M US$, un aumento del 157%). No obstante, este incremento puede deberse a la política de fusiones y adquisiciones de la compañía. Disney viene llevando en los últimos años una política de adquisiciones relativamente agresiva, ideada por el CEO Bob Iger, de las cuales podemos destacar 4 o 5 operaciones clave, la primera de ellas fue la adquisición de Pixar, la famosa empresa de animación que había despegado bajo la conducción de Steve Jobs y Ed Catmull, en 2006 por 7,4MM US$ (de esa adquisición se beneficiaron sacando películas muy exitosas como Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Toy Story 3, etc.). Otra adquisición clave, fue la compra de Marvel en 2009 por 4MM US$ (La última de sus películas Avengers: Endgame, la más taquillera de la historia de Disney, vendió entradas por 3MM US$). En 2012, Disney compró Lucasfilm (histórica productora de Star Wars), por 4,05MM US$, y posteriormente anunció una muy lucrativa tercera trilogía de Star Wars. Por último, en marzo de 2019, Disney concretó la adquisición de 2oth Century Fox, en marzo de 2019, por la extraordinaria cifra de 73MM US$, sus resultados aún están por verse.[10]
Analizar la competencia de Disney es algo trabajoso, dado la variedad de sectores en los que se involucra y la falta de compañías que abarquen tantos sectores como Disney. Considero que la compañía que más se aproxima en cuanto a sus operaciones y al volumen de las mismas es Comcast (NASDAQ:CMSCA), si bien Disney compite con numerosas empresas en numerosos sectores, como podrían ser, por ejemplo Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) o Six Flags (NYSE:SIX) en el negocio de los parques temáticos; ViacomCBS (NYSE:VIAC) o Discovery Communications (NASDAQ:DISCA) en el negocio mediático; así como Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) o Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) en el negocio del streaming, sobre los cuales hablare más adelante. También compite con segmentos de negocios de conglomerados grandes como Sony (NYSE: SNE) o AT&T (NYSE:T).
Observando a Comcast, el acérrimo rival, vemos que la capitalización bursátil es similar, siendo de 198.301M US$ para Comcast y de 234.538M US$ para Disney, así como los empleados, teniendo 190.000 (CMCSA) y 236.000 (DISN). El desempeño de ambas acciones es parejo, en términos generales Comcast tuvo mejor performance, sobre todo YTD (-3,47% contra -10,26%). En los márgenes y ratios también gana Comcast, supera ampliamente en gross margin (TTM) a Disney, con 56,78% contra 27,95% y en net margin (TTM) con 10,91% frente a un pobre -1,91%. El EPS (TTM) da 2,53 para Comcast contra -0,6 para Disney. Consecuentemente, Comcast pudo mantener un P/E positivo de 17,56.
Si bien los números parecen positivos en la comparación para el lado de Comcast, me parece relevante destacar que lo mismo que fue su mayor ventaja comparativa (la composición de sus segmentos operativos), puede ser lo que la haga perder en la comparación a futuro, dada la absoluta supremacía que tiene la operatoria relacionada con la televisión, así como la falta de un segmento de negocios dedicado al streaming de video (sobre el cual también me referiré mas adelante).[11]
Para analizar el futuro, creo que es relevante hacer unas breves conclusiones sobre la actualidad. En primer lugar, los segmentos operativos mas afectados fueron el segmento de parques temáticos, resorts, etc. y el segmento de los estudios cinematográficos con lo cual los ingresos de Disney este último trimestre quedaron a cargo, principalmente, de los canales de TV (que sufrieron una breve baja del 2%) y de los servicios de streaming.
Empezando por los sectores más afectados, respecto a la producción fílmica (Studio Entertainment), me parece que la situación no es crítica, claramente la situación de la pandemia redujo fuertemente los ingresos del sector (al haberse reducido lógicamente la asistencia a salas de cine). No obstante, el manejo del sector viene siendo exitoso hace años (en los últimos 2 años lanzaron 3 de las 4 películas más taquilleras de la historia de la compañía, Endgame, Infinity War, y el live-action de El Rey León), y no hay indicios de que esto vaya a cambiar en el futuro (hay un esquema de estrenos futuros interesante).[12]
En lo que respecta a los parques, las perspectivas no son tan buenas. La caída para el Q2 2020 fue del 85% en relación al Q2 2019. Es evidente que al haber una cuestión sanitaria de por medio, el turismo va a ser uno de los sectores mas afectados, habiendo sufrido una caída increíble en la primera mitad del año. [13] Actualmente, la actividad comercial de los parques temáticos está empezando a reanudarse, habiendo reabierto las operaciones en Walt Disney World en Florida, y estando a la espera de reabrir Disneyland en California, dada la incertidumbre de la pandemia.[14] No obstante, la recuperación fue peor de lo esperado y a partir de Septiembre Walt Disney World recortará los horarios de sus parques.[15] Asimismo, comparativamente, el desempeño de Universal Studios (propiedad de Comcast), parece ser mejor que el de Disney en esta reapertura.[16] No obstante, es importante destacar el carácter de líder absoluto de Disney en este sector,[17] con una competencia que difícilmente pueda igualar su posición, con lo cual si bien el desempeño en el corto plazo puede ser inferior al de la competencia, es altamente probable que recupere su posición dominante en el mediano-largo plazo.
Es interesante ver, en tercer lugar, el segmento “Media Networks” que consiste principalmente en los canales de TV que Disney posee. Este sector no tuvo una caída significante (solo del 2% para el Q2 2020 en relacion al Q2 2019) en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo, es evidente que la tendencia del sector es a desaparecer. Las encuestas y reportes muestran un lento descenso año tras año de la audiencia, tanto de TV en vivo, TV diferida y radio.[18] Con lo cual, a largo plazo, es previsible que este segmento sufra una disminución considerable en su volumen de operaciones.
También es previsible (y así lo reflejan las encuestas), que el reemplazo de la TV tradicional sea protagonizado por los servicios de video streaming (VOD), es decir, por las operaciones del cuarto segmento (Direct-to-Consumer). Disney tiene hoy 3 servicios de streaming, Hulu, ESPN+, y Disney+ (ofrece los tres en un bundle que cuesta US$ 12,99). Como ya dijimos, el incremento de los ingresos por estos servicios durante el FY 2019 fue significante. Veamos la evolución de los subscriptores a estos servicios en lo que va del FY 2020 (es decir, Q4 2019, Q1 2020 y Q2 2020).
Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Hulu 30,4M 32,1M (+5,6%) 35,5M (+10,6%)
ESPN+ 6,6M 7,9M (+19,7%) 8,5M (+7,6%)
Disney+ 26,5M 33,5M (+26,4%) 57,5M (+71,6%)
Como se puede apreciar, el crecimiento es destacable, sobre todo de Disney+. Yendo producto por producto, cuesta encontrar competidores comparables con ESPN+, con lo cual Disney no tiene mucha competencia. Por su parte Hulu y Disney + son complementarios, la diferencia entre uno y otro radica principalmente en el catálogo (el de Hulu es un poco más ecléctico, el de D+ se centra principalmente en contenidos de marcas propias de Disney), así como también pequeñas características de Hulu que lo diferencian de otros servicios de streaming (incluyendo una versión alternativa de suscripción que incluye TV en directo). Estos dos servicios si se enfrentan a una feroz competencia, participando de la contienda denominada “streaming war” con gigantes como Netflix o Amazon Prime Video.
En ese orden, mientras Netflix tiene 193 millones de subscriptores,[19] y Amazon ostenta un numero similar o superior (habiendo ganado mas de 100M de subscriptores en un año), [20] Disney tiene solo 93 millones entre Disney+ y Hulu (nada mal, considerando que Disney+ está en su primer año de vida). Mirando hacia adelante es posible que el servicio que ofrece Disney expanda su base de subscriptores, así como también es muy probable que la competencia se recrudezca (incluyendo la incidencia de otros servicios como Apple TV+). En ese contexto, el principal motivo para pensar que Disney podría ganar la “guerra” los próximos años podría ser el amplísimo catálogo de licencias de personajes, series, y películas que posee el conglomerado (Star Wars, Los Simpson, Marvel y todos sus superhéroes, por solo mencionar algunos), que podrían tener muchísimo mas peso que las producciones originales de sus competidores. Por otro lado, el servicio de Amazon, por ejemplo, resulta mas atractivo en cuanto a pricing, porque le es ofrecido como un beneficio a todos los que cuentan con una subscripción de Amazon Prime)
A forma de conclusión, es difícil imaginar un futuro adverso a largo plazo para Disney. Sin embargo, su desempeño en el corto-mediano plazo dependerá de varios factores (quizás valga la pena analizar Comcast para el corto-mediano plazo, para el largo parece ser una desventaja fatal el hecho de que no estén compitiendo fuerte en la guerra por el streaming), en mi opinión, principalmente de la reactivación del turismo (tanto domestico como internacional) así como del desempeño de sus servicios de streaming (y el desempeño de sus competidores).
Fuentes
-Forms 10-K y 10-Q, principalmente los últimos, toda la información esta en https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/
-Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS
-Otras fuentes, especificadas en los footnotes

[1] Datos en base a gráficos de https://www.tradingview.com/chart/
[2] Datos de https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/dividend-yield-history y https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/dis/dividend-history
[3] El año fiscal de Disney comienza en septiembre, por lo que los reportes de ellos (y el orden de los trimestres del año fiscal) se presentan en consecuencia. No obstante, cada vez que me refiera a un determinado trimestre o quarter, lo hago en base al año calendario.
[4] En base a datos de los filings ante la SEC y de https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/shares-outstanding
[5] En base a una comparación con datos de https://siblisresearch.com/data/price-to-book-secto
[6] Información de https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/holders?p=DIS
[7] Información de https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/business/media/disney-ceo-coronavirus.html
[8] Si se quiere mas insight sobre Bob Iger, es recomendable la biografía de Steve Jobs que hizo Walter Isaacson
[9] Datos del proxy statement de 2020 https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/the_walt_disney_company/SEC/sec-show.aspx?FilingId=13852150&Cik=0001744489&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1
[10] Ver https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/bob-iger-forever-changed-disney-with-4-key-acquisitions.html , https://money.cnn.com/2006/01/24/news/companies/disney_pixar_deal/ , https://money.cnn.com/2009/08/31/news/companies/disney_marvel/ , https://www.bbc.com/news/business-20146942 , https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/theatrical-distributors/walt-disney entre otros
[11] Comparaciones con el screener de TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/screene
[12] Ver https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/upcoming-disney-movies/
[13]Estadísticas del sector en: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/tourist-arrivals
[14] Ver https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/experience/america/theme-parks/2020/08/10/disneyland-california-theme-parks-left-limbo-covid-19-surge/3319886001/
[15] Ver https://deadline.com/2020/08/walt-disney-world-cut-hours-september-1203008260/
[16] Ver https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/universal-sees-more-visitors-than-disney-amid-coronavirus-report
[17] Ver https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/05/23/the-worlds-most-popular-theme-parks-in-2018-infographic/#7c2354e577ac , https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/most-popular-theme-parks-world-2018/index.html , https://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_268_653730_180517.pdf
[18] Ver https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/report/2020/the-nielsen-total-audience-report-august-2020/
[19] Form 10-Q Q2 2020 Netflix: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001065280/bcff7d52-7a7d-4e0c-8265-4b6860929fb1.pdf
[20] Ver https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercsathy/2020/01/31/amazon-prime-video-the-quiet-ominous-streaming-force/#6abbe5e41f1a
submitted by menem95 to merval [link] [comments]


2020.08.24 22:36 ar_david_hh Aug/24/2020 news: / Poll: COVID, income, future / SU-25 and SU-30CM jets / Soldier wanders off / Artsakh apartments++ / Kocharyan sues Armenia / CC judge Tovmasyan's trial / People like art / U.S. sends aid / Gasprom layoffs / Employment++ / School reform / Tourism & Nature++ / Warehouse collapses

New military deal with Russia / SU-25 modernization

Defense Minister Tonoyan visited Moscow to participate in joint military-games and to discuss a new deal. He met MOD Sergey Shoygu.
 
They signed a deal to modernize and repair Armenia's Su-25 fighter jets.
Russia says they're ready to discuss the purchase of the second batch of Su-30CM jets by Armenia. Armenia wants 8 more in addition to the existing 4.
 
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194117 , https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194138 , http://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/284350/
 

A solder winds up in Azeri territory

Army: // officer Gurgen Alaverdyan went to check the outpost but got lost due to bad weather. Azeri army lies about it being an infiltration attempt. //
Azeri military confirmed that they have the soldier.
 
Armenian HRO complained about mistreatment as shown in videos published by the Azeri soldiers. Alaverdyan was handcuffed and had his eyes closed with a winter hat. He was being berated.
"The hate words indicate that the actions were due to his ethnicity," said the Ombudsman.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194107 , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/194187 , https://razm.info/145354
 

Georgian mini-bus rolls down a gorge

President and PM sent condolences to Georgia over a tragic incident that took the lives of 17 and left the other 3 injured. The bus rolled down the Shatili gorge from an 80m height. Tomorrow is a mourning day in Georgia.
https://factor.am/278404.html
 

Martuni turns 95 / Expansion plans

Artsakh's Martuni city turns 95 today. President Arayik said they plan to build 500 new apartments until 2025, to help those who suffered from the 90s war, and for new buyers.
The first step is to build a new sewer network and lay asphalt/tiles where necessary.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194113
 

Kocharyan is suing Armenia / His lawyer's wife will be the judge

Ex-president Kocharyan is suing Armenia for $4,200. He complains that "March 1st" judge Anna Danibekyan allegedly broke the medical secrecy law by publishing medical information (heart arrhythmia and Stage-3 hypertension) about Kocharyan while the latter was in the hospital and couldn't appear in court.
 
The judge in this lawsuit will be Kocharyan lawyer's wife.
 
No pRoBLem bRo 👌👌👍🆗: https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194127
 

Healthcare Minister "disappears" from internet

Sim salabim... poooof. Arsen Torosyan closed his official Facebook account. The personal account was closed 5 months ago.
 
Minister's office refused to comment on whether it's related to an earlier court order that required him to issue an apology to ex-director of St. Gregory Illuminator hospital (Serj's relative).
In 2018, the Ministry found large embezzlement and subsidy fraud at the hospital. Torosyan called the hospital's administration corrupt, while the court found it to be defamatory.
Torosyan said he would not apologize "for stating the truth". He doubled-down on it and called for reforms in "untrustworthy courts".
 
Healthcare Ministry says the Minister is currently at work and hasn't resigned.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194147 , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1025718.html
 

ex-Justice Minister and CC chief Tovmasyan's trial

Hrayr Tovmasyan recently lost his seat as Constitutional Court (CC) chief judge (remains as a standard judge). Earlier, he served as HHK's Justice Minister.
During his time as Minister, he and his godson (a workplace subordinate) allegedly committed forgery, notary fraud, property embezzlement. The two are facing abuse of power charges.
 
Today was their trial.
The prosecutor wanted the journalists to videotape the trial, but the defendant Tovmasyan objected to it because "he's a judge so recording this trial could negatively affect the judicial system".
 
The judge informed that either way the journalists are allowed to stay and write the process on paper, even if they can't videotape.
Defendant said he's OK with writing, but not OK with videotaping.
"If the trial is videotaped then I'll remain standing throughout the process because they [Pashinyan] did all this just to see me sitting on the defendant's chair," said Tovmasyan.
 
The judge prohibited journalists from audio/video recording.
 
The judge then delayed the trial until September 7th because the prosecutors sent mandatory legal documents to the defendant but it didn't arrive on time because the Post Office returned it to the sender. (👏👏👏)
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194152
 

Dali and Picasso return to National Gallery

A long line was formed in front of the National Museum in the Republic Square. 4,500 people had earlier signed up to view 260 works by Dali and Picasso, in under 4 days.
The Gallery decided to extend it by another week.
The ticket costs $1-$7 and is free for under 6yo.
The collection belongs to Alexander Shadin. He collected the 260 pieces throughout 15 years.
Photos: https://factor.am/278301.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/194168
 

COVID stats / Tourism slowly recovers

No accurate infections stats on Mondays.
A new infection hotspot was found in Vardenis city. The govt reminded residents to follow safety.
Yerevan inspectors haven't found safety violations by businesses for 10 days.
 
Nature Minister Romanos: tourism is flourishing in Tsakhkadzor again. The hotels are already 90% booked.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194109 , https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194110 , https://factor.am/278263.html
 

Poll: COVID outranks unemployment as #1 problem / Trust towards institutes

Data from July 29:
The World Bank poll says 36% of Armenians view COVID19 as the priority problem right now. 33% said the same about unemployment.
 
54% said their finances worsened due to COVID.
36% cut spending on food. 43% cut on basic necessities.
 
30% think finances will stay bad for 1 year. 25% improve. 33% worsen.
 
53% said the government's COVID aid packages were party/fully sufficient. 65% said they didn't benefit from it.
 
51% of parents are ready to send kids to school in September.
 
69% partly/fully trust the state healthcare system.
72% partly/fully trust the police.
http://arka.am/en/news/society/third_of_respondents_in_armenia_expect_their_social_situation_to_get_worse/
 

The U.S. will send more COVID aid

USAID will donate another $1.4m to Armenia against the pandemic fight, bringing it to $4m so far this year.
The new aid is for people who are stranded and homeless, agriculture, and tourism.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194136
 

Gasprom begins layoffs

Context: Gasprom's subsidiary Gasprom-Armenia took the entire burden of the price hike on its shoulders when Russian Gasprom raised the gas price on the Armenian border in 2019.
In 2020, Gasprom-Armenia asked the regulators for permission to hike the prices for regular consumers, citing the inability to swallow the entire cost by themselves.
The regulators agreed to raise it, but not for low-income users. The prices weren't raised by as much as Gasprom-Armenia had hoped. The company said they'd have to do 1,000 layoffs.
 
A few dozens inspectors/guards in Lori province were notified about their upcoming layoff today. The workers complain that their seniority and financial difficulties were ignored by the company.
The company says they lay off inspectors with low performance metrics (fewer checks per X days).
Workers said they didn't inspect often enough because many consumers were exempt from utility payments as part of govt's COVID aid package.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/194183
 

Happy real birthday, Armenia

30 years ago on August 23rd, the Supreme Council declared Armenia a sovereign state. Next year, on September 21st, Armenian voters "ratified" it with a referendum for final independence.
 
Pashinyan and President Sarkissian congratulated. "Congrats. It was a difficult task under internal and external pressures. Let's improve our institutes now."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1025632.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1025634.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1025637.html
 

Total and average sum of salaries increase

Pashinyan: the gross salary fund of all workers in July was $265m, versus $244m last year.
The number of workers rose from 606k to 613k.
The average salary per job rose from $402 to $431.
The numbers indicate that our crisis management packages helped to save jobs and preserve salaries.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194108
 

Ultra-traditionalists protest again

Members from radical "ultra-traditionalist" Kamq group held a protest in front of govt building and demanded the Education Minister's resignation. They don't like the education reforms, most notably the Lanzarote Convention which will help children to avoid becoming victims of sexual exploitation.
Activists are afraid 6-year-old children will be taught sex in schools. Ministry dismisses it, saying it's more like about teaching the child to "avoid taking candy from a white van".
https://youtu.be/dFY6_qHjDX0?t=29
 

School funding to increase as part of Education Reforms

The Edu. Min. plans to recalculate how the funds are allocated to schools beginning in 2021. The proposal was submitted for public discussion last week.
 
Ministry: besides the base funds, we want to give schools additional funds based on performance indicators. Minimum salaries will be reviewed.
The primary teacher (Դասղեկ) salary will rise 10-20% based on the number of students in the class. Some others will get a 10% raise.
https://factor.am/278254.html
 

Major road repairs in Hrazdan

For the first time, 10 Hrazdan city roads are being renovated simultaneously as part of a subsidy program.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2418148155151243&extid=i0aKD2wws0TFT4UA , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/194184
 

EU funds a gravel bike route for tourists

Khndozresk has a new bike path funded by the EU. This sport is developing in Armenia and is part of eco-tourism. Signs are being installed to inform the tourists.
https://hetq.am/hy/article/120815
 

Eco-tourism in Artavan / Mirror Lake

Those of you who like nature adventure will like Artavan and its Mirror Lake. The water's clarity gave the name Mirror, while the popularity comes from its islands that resemble the Earth's continents.
 
The local tourism began developing 4 years ago when the residents began leasing their homes AirBnB-style, in addition to hosting camping/jeeping activities for tourists.
 
High-tech is no stranger to this place. 53 families switched to solar-powered water heaters.
Some objects have QR codes that will tell you about the surroundings if you scan with a smartphone. The village also offers a VR tour.
https://youtu.be/rDAYFxFqouU
 

War on fish pouching to save Lake Sevan

Recently the Nature Ministry prohibited unregulated fishing in Sevan and hired guards to enforce it. Fishing is allowed with permits and limited quantities.
 
MP Taguhi Tovmasyan: // for years, our national treasure was ruthlessly exploited by public officials who did so by hiring ordinary fishers. It was a big business.
I received complaints from ordinary fishers about the ban, but this day was inevitable. It was overdue.
 
They raised some valid complaints, however:
The current rules define how big the fishing net holes should be to prevent catching of small fish, but the standards are off and it can still catch small ones. As a result, fishers can have legal issues.
The regulated entry points for fishing boats are too few, with bad infrastructure, and cannot handle hundreds of boats in a short period. Many fishers prefer to go there at once, on the dawn.
More needs to be done to allow more locals to fish after paying a license fee.
 
On one hand, we have years of unregulated fishing that harms the lake, on the other is the threat that the fish price could rise sharply. I think we can find a middle ground. //
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194141
 

Khosrov Forests

Caucasus Nature Foundation donated another $102k to help preserve the protected Khosrov Forests. More donations will be given to Nature Ministry soon.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/194128
 

update: Chess Olympiad

The team lost to Russia and England but defeated Egypt. The next opponent is Greece, which is the 2nd in the group. Armenia is the 3rd in the group. That match will conclude the 1/8th tour.
https://factor.am/278443.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1025657.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1025654.html , http://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/284384/
 

Դարանած վագր, անիծված սառնարան

Dzyunik Refrigerator Inc. has been trying to blow up their old Yerevan warehouse for a month now. Earlier they screwed up the placement of TNTs and part of the building didn't collapse. They tried 3 times.
 
They made the 4th attempt today. "We're doing it carefully today because it's too close to surrounding structures. It needs to collapse in two stages."
They managed to collapse the frontal part this morning, while the backside remained standing, albeit significantly weakened and leaning.
 
Then a cursed miracle. As everyone was walking around and minding their business, the remaining part collapsed under its weight, causing widespread panic and a huge cloud of dust that swallowed the surroundings.
Everyone began running around. "Vazgen was inside! Vazgen was inside!"
"No, he wasn't."
"Where is he?"
"Here he is, ara. Here he is."
 
Mission Accomplished.
https://youtu.be/Uhef8ajK8K4 , https://factor.am/278510.html
 
You've read 2003 words.

Disclaimer & Terminology

1) The accused are innocent until proven guilty in the court of law, even if they sound guilty.
2) Currency in Armenian ֏ unless specified otherwise.
3) NSS/SIS/SOC = law enforcement agencies. QP = Civil Contract Party. LHK = Bright Armenia Party. BHK = Prosperous Armenia Party. HHK = Republican Party. ARF = Armenian Revolutionary Federation Party
4) ARCHIVE of older posts by Idontknowmuch: PART 1 ; PART 2 ; PART 3 ; PART 4 ; PART 5.
5) ARCHIVE of older posts by Armeniapedia.
submitted by ar_david_hh to armenia [link] [comments]


2020.08.21 08:27 rogert2 Star Trek: Generations - You Can't Dynamite a Gravity Well Edition

A new plot hole! (Or at least, one that I think hasn't already been posted here or covered by Mr Plinkett.)
The villain's plan is to destroy a few stars in order to alter the trajectory of The Ribbon, "a conflux of temporal energy" that looks like a rippling wave of electricity flowing through space like tides on the surface of the ocean.
He wants to alter its trajectory because he intends to intercept The Ribbon physically, in person, so he can go to The Nexus 1. For reasons that are not clear (but are certainly dumb) he believes this requires causing The Ribbon's path to intersect with a planet, and so he's destroying stars to arrange that scenario.
This isn't my main point, but I don't understand why he can't simply fly a starship into The Ribbon. Both he and Kirk were on a starship when The Ribbon first spirited them away to The Nexus. So it seems to me that the surest course would be to recreate that situation, not to arrange for a first-ever planetside rendezvous. For all he knows, the planet could interfere with The Ribbon or even destroy it. Or if he can't get his hands on a starship, why not charter a transport and then launch himself (in a space suit) into The Ribbon's path?
When I first saw Generations in the theater (regrets: I haz them), I assumed it would be about a guy trying to hijack a starship, because that is obviously the safest bet. I guess I don't know anything about Ribbons.
Anyway...
By what mechanism is destroying a star supposed to alter The Ribbon's path? The movie makes it clear that mechanism is gravity.
In "the stellar cartography scene"*, Picard and Data note that "the destruction of the Amargosa star [the villain's first target] has altered gravitational forces throughout this sector." From this, they conclude (correctly) that the bad guy is destroying specific stars in order to modify local gravity in an attempt to divert The Ribbon to a place of his choosing.
* To clarify: the scene is about stellar cartography, and it is kind of tedious.
We know their hypothesis is correct for two very good reasons:
  1. It accurately predicts where the villain will be, which Picard confirms by experiment: he goes there and finds the villain in flagrante.
  2. Generations has a small amount of time-travel, so we actually see that the villain's plan succeeds perfectly unless interfered with.
So, the villain is manipulating gravity by destroying stars with missiles. The movie really doesn't leave any wiggle room on this point, which is a shame because it's so stupid.
The movie makes it pretty clear that the missile "destroys" the star by extinguishing it: the missile reaches the star, which then grows dramatically dimmer, and then The Ribbon materializes on its altered course which intersects perfectly with the villain's tiny metal platform. (Maybe the planet stopped rotating when the star went out? Like, in shock?)
At one point Worf explains that trilithium is a "nuclear inhibitor." I think they don't elaborate, but it seems consistent with what we see later to interpret that to mean it stops nuclear fusion.
The problem is that that's not how stars and gravity work. Gravity is a curvature of spacetime, and spacetime is curved by mass. Stars have powerful gravity because they are massive, not because they "burn." I mean, Earth has gravity and it's not burning (except for Australia and the Amazon and California and Canada, and polluted rivers, and tap water contaminated by hydraulic fracturing...)
My point is that the only way to change the strength of a star's gravity is to change how much matter is in the star. A gravity well is not an object that can be destroyed with explosives, because gravity is a function of mass, and explosions can't violate conservation laws. Luminosity doesn't enter into it. Hypothetically, if you compressed a star below its Schwarzschild radius -- that is, if you crunched it down until it turned into a black hole -- it would still have precisely the same gravitational force as the original star because its mass would be unchanged.
But the villain's plan works. We see it with our own eyes. So allow me to introduce you to the device capable of substantially altering a star's mass in an instant: the Trilithium Solar Probe (NB: working title).
We don't see any technical specs, so let's charitably assume it's physically similar to the LGM-30 Minuteman ICBM: 20 meters long, and 40,000 kg.
So how does a 4e4 kg mass change a 2e30 kg mass like Sol?
There are really only two options: (A) annihilate, or (B) move some of the star's matter. Magically stopping fusion would have no effect whatsoever on the star's gravity, even if it were possible.
In the annihilation scenario, we're probably talking about matter-antimatter annihilation, in which energy is conserved. I take that to mean that one mass eliminates another, equal mass. Let's assume the entire missile probe is antimatter, and see what effect that would have:
2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg matter (star) - 40,000 kg antimatter (probe) = 1,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,960,000 kg
I had to use Wolfram Alpha to double-check that result because my laptop says that 2e30 - 4e4 = 2e30. The difference is so small it doesn't even register.
But maybe we're not giving this guy enough credit. Perhaps his probe can annihilate 10 100 10,000 times its equivalent mass. Let's crunch those numbers again...
= 1,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,600,000,000 kg matter (star)
For reference:
810,000,000,000,000 kg matter (Mt Everest)
VERY LATE EDIT: according to this post, the mass of Mt Everest is approximately equivalent to "1 tablespoon of star matter." Just to highlight how negligible the very generous annihilation scenario is. In terms of "stellar cuisine," this qualifies as "a pinch."
It seems like that would still not be a big enough difference to alter the trajectory of something moving faster than the star's escape velocity. Maybe someone out there wants to theydidthemath on the gravity, but IIRC gravity operates according to the inverse square law, so I'm not going to hold my breath. And you'll probably be making up most of the numbers because the movie doesn't give us any details of The Ribbon's original trajectory in relation to the star.
I'm not going to talk about the implausibility of the probe increasing the star's mass. It's not a Grow a Monster.
Finally, let's consider the possibility that the missile probe redistributes the star's mass.
Imagine trying to empty a lake of water by throwing in a stick of dynamite. You'll make a big splash, but the water will just fall back into the lake bed and you'll accomplish nothing. If you use lots of dynamite you'll probably succeed in throwing the water further, but that's where the metaphor breaks down. In space, the lake bed extends for millions of miles in every direction.
So imagine it's a small lake in the center of a giant canyon shaped like a funnel. An explosion in the lake simply can't throw the water far enough to prevent it from falling to the canyon floor and collecting back in the center.
This is essentially the problem faced when using a missile probe to diminish a star's gravity by pushing its material around. To weaken the star's gravity, the missile probe would need to accelerate a significant portion of the star's matter to escape velocity.
And even if we accept the idea that an explosive payload of 4e4 kg could displace enough matter to weaken the star's gravity, it's still true that the displacement (and thus the gravitational effects) would not be instantaneous.
How long would it take? We don't have to guess: in a supernova, an unimaginably powerful pressure wave propagates from deep within the star, ultimately flinging it apart. This is exactly the kind of mass redistribution that our villain needs. According to phys.org, it takes that shockwave hours to travel from the core of the star to the surface. And at that precise moment, when the shockwave reaches the surface, all of the star's matter is still effectively where it always was, which means the star's gravitational effects will not have changed yet.
So maybe the missile probe accelerates all the star's matter to the speed of light within a matter of seconds? An omnidirectional explosion is not an efficient way to generate thrust, and pretty much the core premise of the Star Trek universe is that the only way to travel at or above c is by using a warp field. And that's just starship-like masses. A star will have the mass of several hundred thousand planets. (E.g. Sol is ~333,333 the mass of Earth.)
So I guess the villain created a warhead probe that explodes probes so hard that it can blow a quarter of a million planets into a warp-speed explosion in normal space. That seems to be the only interpretation the movie permits, because like so many doomsday weapon plots, this guy's plan comes together at the last second. It's not like he blows up the star in March and then returns in November when The Ribbon arrives on its changed course.
It would have made more sense if they said Soran was an evil wizard.
1 People overtaken by The Ribbon are transported to The Nexus, which is essentially an eternal paradise of one's own design. His ultimate goal is to be reunited with his dead wife -- who wouldn't go down on him -- and his dead kid -- who couldn't hold onto his retainer if he was stapled to it -- because the PG interpretation of "eternal paradise" is precisely your regular boring life with the regular boring people who are already in it. I guess everyone can see paradise by the dashboard light. It's farting in bed next to you and pretending not to hear you when you ask it to empty the dishwasher. How many dishwashers do you think Jim Kirk emptied over the 78 years he spent in The Nexus?
EDIT: Thanks for the gold, kind stranger!
submitted by rogert2 to plotholes [link] [comments]


2020.08.17 08:26 Worm2120 A complete timeline of relevant events on 09/11/2001.

Lets see if this post gets buried and downvoted instantly like my last post.
V: A building is a symbol, as is the act of destroying it. Symbols are given power by people. Alone, a symbol is meaningless, but with enough people, blowing up a building can change the world.

years leading up to 09/11/2001:
MILITARY SIMULATIONS AND TRAININGS:
-1991: White House Is Protected From Airplane Attack During Gulf War
While a battery of surface-to-air-missiles remains permanently on the roof of the White House, the rest of these defenses are apparently removed after the war is over. Yet even though counterterrorism officials later call the alerts in the summer of 2001 “the most urgent in decades,” similar defensive measures will apparently not be taken.
- 1998: Training Exercise Held at the White House, Based Around Militants Using a Plane as a Weapon
Counterterrorism “tsar” Richard Clarke chairs a tabletop exercise at the White House, involving a scenario where anti-American militants fill a Learjet with explosives, and then fly it on a suicide mission toward a target in Washington, DC. Officials from the Pentagon, Secret Service, and FAA attend, and are asked how they would stop such a threat. Pentagon officials say they could launch fighters from Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, but would need authorization from the president to shoot the plane down, and currently there is no system to do this. The 9/11 Commission later states: “There was no clear resolution of the problem at the exercise.”
- 1999-September 11, 2001: NORAD Exercise Simulates Crashes into US Buildings; One of Them Is the World Trade Center
One of these imagined targets is the World Trade Center. According to NORAD, these scenarios are regional drills, rather than regularly scheduled continent-wide exercises. They utilize “[n]umerous types of civilian and military aircraft” as mock hijacked aircraft, and test “track detection and identification; scramble and interception; hijack procedures; internal and external agency coordination; and operational security and communications security procedures.” The main difference between these drills and the 9/11 attacks is that the planes in the drills are coming from another country, rather than from within the US. Before 9/11, NORAD reportedly conducts four major exercises at headquarters level per year. Most of them are said to include a hijack scenario.
- Between October 24 and 28, 2000: Military Holds Exercise Rehearsing Response to a Plane Crash at the Pentagon
Pentagon and Arlington County emergency responders assemble in the office of the Secretary of Defenses conference room in the Pentagon for a mass casualty exercise (“MASCAL”). The exercise involves three mock-scenarios. One is of a commercial airliner crashing into the Pentagon and killing 342 people, while the other two involve a terrorist attack at the Pentagons subway stop and a construction accident. The exercises are conducted using a large-scale model of the Pentagon with a model airplane literally on fire in the central courtyard of the building. An Army medic who participates in the mock attack calls it “a real good scenario and one that could happen easily,” while a fire chief notes: “You have to plan for this. Look at all the air traffic around here.”
- May 2001: Medics Train for Airplane Hitting Pentagon
The Tri-Service DiLorenzo Health Care Clinic and the Air Force Flight Medicine Clinic, both housed within the Pentagon, train for a scenario involving a hijacked 757 airliner being crashed into the Pentagon. It is reported that the purpose of the training is “to fine-tune their emergency preparedness.”
- April 17-26, 2001: Joint Chiefs of Staff Holds Exercise for Continuity of Government if US is Attacked; Proposal to Simulate Airliner Crash into Pentagon Rejected
The Joint Chiefs of Staff holds a large, worldwide exercise called Positive Force, which focuses on the Defense Department's ability to conduct large-scale military operations and coordinate these operations. The 2001 Positive Force exercise is a “continuity of operations exercise,” meaning it deals with government contingency plans to keep working in the event of an attack on the US. Over a dozen government agencies, including NORAD, are invited to participate. The exercise prepares them for various scenarios, including non-combatant evacuation operations, cyber attacks, rail disruption, and power outages. Apparently, one of the scenarios that was considered for this exercise involved “a terrorist group hijack[ing] a commercial airliner and fly[ing] it into the Pentagon.” But the proposed scenario, thought up by a group of Special Operations personnel trained to think like terrorists, was rejected. Joint Staff action officers and White House officials said the additional scenario is either “too unrealistic” or too disconnected to the original intent of the exercise.
- June 1-2, 2001: Military Conducts Exercises Based on Scenario in which Cruise Missiles Are Launched against US
Bin Laden is pictured on the cover of the first Amalgam Virgo exercise. 📷 The US military conducts Amalgam Virgo 01, a multi-agency planning exercise sponsored by NORAD involving the hypothetical scenario of a cruise missile being launched by “a rogue [government] or somebody” from a barge off the East Coast. Bin Laden is pictured on the cover of the proposal for the exercise. The exercise takes place at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida. The next Amalgam Virgo exercise, scheduled to take place the following year, will involve two simultaneous commercial aircraft hijackings. Planning for the exercises begins before 9/11.
poster for event on June 1-2, 2001 feat. Osama Bin Laden.
- Early August 2001: Mass Casualty Exercise at the Pentagon Includes a Plane Hitting the Building
A mass casualty exercise, involving a practice evacuation, is held at the Pentagon. General Lance Lord of US Air Force Space Command, one of the participants in the exercises, later recalls: “[It was] purely a coincidence, the scenario for that exercise included a plane hitting the building.” Lord will also say that on 9/11, “our assembly points were fresh in our minds” thanks to this practice. People and organizations involved: Lance Lord

Did you catch that? re-read the above bold statement. There are no coincidences.
3
WARNING SIGNS AND PROOF OF NEGLIGENCE:
Every event that took place before 9/11 COULD be considered a coincidence by almost all people who believe the MSM narrative of 9/11. Therefore, I will mostly be focusing on a classified (at the time) military intelligence task force known as Able Danger.
Able Danger was a data mining software started by LIWA after finding a large presence of Chinese corporations fronting as US companies to mine data inside the US and gain intel. Able Danger was the United States counter to this Chinese data mining issue.
In the fall of 1999, Able Danger was officially created to gain information on Al-Qaeda on the orders of 4 star General Peter Schoomaker and Hugh Shelton, leader of SOCOM.
Using computers, the unit collects huge amounts of data in a technique called “data mining.” They get information from such sources as al-Qaeda Internet chat rooms, news accounts, web sites, and financial records. Using sophisticated software, they compare this with government records such as visa applications by foreign tourists, to find any correlations and depict these visually.

January-May 2000: CIA Has Atta Under Surveillance

Hijacker Mohamed Atta is put under surveillance by the CIA while living in Germany. [Berliner Zeitung, 9/24/01; Focus, 9/24/01; Agence France-Presse, 9/22/01] He is “reportedly observed buying large quantities of chemicals in Frankfurt, apparently for the production of explosives [and/or] for biological warfare.” “The US agents reported to have trailed Atta are said to have failed to inform the German authorities about their investigation,” even as the Germans are investigating many of his associates. “The disclosure that Atta was being trailed by police long before 11 September raises the question why the attacks could not have been prevented with the man's arrest.” [Observer, 9/30/01] A German newspaper adds that Atta is able to get a visa into the US on May 18. According to some reports, the surveillance stops when he leaves for the US at the start of June. However, “experts believe that the suspect [remains] under surveillance in the United States.” [Berliner Zeitung, 9/24/01] A German intelligence official also states, “We can no longer exclude the possibility that the Americans wanted to keep an eye on Atta after his entry in the US” [Focus, 9/24/01] This correlates with a Newsweek claim that US officials knew Atta was a “known [associate] of Islamic terrorists well before [9/11].” [Newsweek, 9/20/01] However, a congressional inquiry later reports that the US “intelligence community possessed no intelligence or law enforcement information linking 16 of the 19 hijackers [including Atta] to terrorism or terrorist groups.” [9/11 Congressional Inquiry, 9/20/02] In 2005, after accounts of the Able Danger program learning Atta's name become news, newspaper account will neglect to mention this prior report about Atta being known by US intelligence. For instance, the New York Times will report, “The account [about Able Danger] is the first assertion that Mr. Atta, an Egyptian who became the lead hijacker in the plot, was identified by any American government agency as a potential threat before the Sept. 11 attacks” (see August 9, 2005) . [New York Times, 8/9/05]

January-February 2000: Secret Military Unit Identifies al-Qaeda ‘Brooklyn’ Cell; Mohamed Atta is a Member

Its clear by now that Able Danger has Identified an immense amount of data on the future hijackers living in New York, over a year before the attacks and after being seen purchasing chemicals for chemical warefare.

April 2000: LIWA and Able Danger Face Trouble After LIWA Connects Prominent US Figures to Chinese Military

A 1999 study by the US Army's Land Information Warfare Activity (LIWA) to look into possible Chinese front companies in the US seeking technology for the Chinese military created controversy and was ordered destroyed in November 1999 (see Mid-1999-November 1999). However, apparently Rep. Curt Weldon (R) protests, and the issue finally comes to a head during this month. One result of this controversy will be what Maj. Erik Kleinsmith will later call “severely restricted” support for Able Danger, including a temporary end to LIWA support (see April 2000) In an April 14, 2000 memorandum from the legal counsel in the Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Capt. Michael Lohr writes that the concern over the LIWA data mining study raises privacy concerns: “Preliminary review of subject methodology raised the possibility that LIWA ‘data mining’ would potentially access both foreign intelligence (FI) information and domestic information relating to US citizens (i.e. law enforcement, tax, customs, immigration, etc... ... I recognize that an argument can be made that LIWA is not ‘collecting’ in the strict sense (i.e. they are accessing public areas of the Internet and non-FI federal government databases of already lawfully collected information). This effort would, however, have the potential to pull together into a single database a wealth of privacy-protected US citizen information in a more sweeping and exhaustive manner than was previously contemplated.” Additionally, the content of the study is another reason why it caused what Weldon calls a “wave of controversy.” The study had connected future National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Defense Secretary William Perry, and other prominent US citizens to business transactions with Chinese military officials.(see Mid-1999-November 1999). [Washington Times, 10/9/05; Washington Times, 9/22/05; New York Post, 8/27/05; Curt Weldon Press Conference, 9/17/05; Erik Kleinsmith Statement, 9/21/05] One article on the subject will comment, “Sources familiar with Able Danger say the project was shut down because it could have led to the exposure of a separate secret data mining project focusing on US citizens allegedly transferring super-sensitive US technology illegally to the Chinese government.” [WTOP, 9/1/05] A massive destruction of data from Able Danger and LIWA's data mining efforts will follow, one month later (see May-June 2000).
KEEP READING!!!!!!!!

May-June 2000: Army Officer Told to Destroy Able Danger Documents

Maj. Eric Kleinsmith, chief of intelligence for the Land Information Warfare Activity (LIWA) unit, is ordered to destroy data and documents related to a military intelligence program set up to gather information about al-Qaeda. The program, called Able Danger, has identified Mohamed Atta and three other future hijackers as potential threats (see January-February 2000). According to Kleinsmith, by April 2000 it has collected “an immense amount of data for analysis that allowed us to map al-Qaeda as a worldwide threat with a surprisingly significant presence within the United States.”
The representative also acknowledges that regulations would have probably allowed the Able Danger information to be shared with law enforcement agencies before its destruction. Asked why this was not done, he responds, “I can't tell you.” [CNET News, 9/21/05] The order to destroy the data and documents is given to Kleinsmith by Army Intelligence and Security Command General Counsel Tony Gentry, who jokingly tells him, “Remember to delete the data—or you'll go to jail.” [Government Executive, 9/21/05] The quantity of information destroyed is later described as “2.5 terabytes,” about as much as one-fourth of all the printed materials in the Library of Congress. [Associated Press, 9/16/05] Other records associated with the unit are allegedly destroyed in March 2001 and spring 2004
i MEAN WHAT MORE INFO DO WE NEED????
2.5 TERABYTES IN THE YEAR 2000. The amount of data that was destroyed... and of course it was just a joke, but Kleinsmith was told hed be fired if he didnt destroy all of it.
Okay now I could speculate for hours and hours on the amount of foreknowledge but i'd like to move to another section of our story:

-Tuesday, September 11th, 2001.

(6:00 a.m.): Bush Interview or Assassination Attempt?

President Bush has just spent the night at Colony Beach and Tennis Resort on Longboat Key, Florida. Surface-to-air missiles have been placed on the roof of the resort (it is not known if this was typical of presidential security before 9/11, or if this was related to increased terror warnings). [Sarasota Herald-Tribune, 9/10/02] Bush wakes up around 6:00 a.m. and is preparing for his morning jog. [MSNBC, 10/27/02; Daily Telegraph, 12/16/01; New York Times, 9/16/01 (B)] A van occupied by men of Middle Eastern descent arrives at the Colony Beach Resort, stating they have a “poolside” interview with the president. They do not have an appointment and they are turned away. [Longboat Observer, 9/26/01] Some question whether this was an assassination attempt modeled on the one used on Afghan leader Ahmed Massoud two days earlier (see September 9, 2001). [Time, 8/4/02 (B)] Longboat Key Fire Marshal Carroll Mooneyhan was reported to have overheard the conversation between the men and the Secret Service, but he later denies the report. The newspaper that reported this, the Longboat Observer stands by its story. [St. Petersburg Times, 7/4/04] Witnesses recall seeing Mohamed Atta in the Longboat Key Holiday Inn a short distance from where Bush was staying as recently as September 7, the day Bush's Sarasota appearance was publicly announced.
Why would a van of middle eastern men want to meet with bush on this particular morning... when bush has increased security for no reason...
(6:30 a.m.): NORAD on Alert for Emergency Exercises
Lieutenant Colonel Dawne Deskins, regional mission control chief, begins a large scale exercise known as: Vigilant Guardian. -THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN GLOBAL GUARDIAN WHICH IS ANOTHER EXERCISE I WILL COVER SHORTLY-
In contrast to the 9/11 Commission Report - Michael Ruppert has characterized Vigilant Guardian as "a hijacking drill, not a cold war exercise". He cites direct quotes from participants which indicate "that the drill involved hijacked airliners rather than Russian Bombers". General Arnold, Tech. Sgt. W. Powel and Lt. Col. Dwane Deskins have stated that when they first were informed about hijacked airliners they thought it was "part of the exercise".[1]

(6:45 a.m.)

“Approximately two hours prior to the first attack”, at least two workers at the instant messaging company Odigo receive messages warning of the WTC attack. This Israeli owned company has its headquarters two blocks from the WTC.
(6:47 A.M.) Fire alarms in WTC 7 placed to "test mode".
While these extra security measures were being implemented, another anomalous event occurred at WTC 7, a 47-story office building located 370 feet north of the North Tower. Specifically, every morning for the seven days before September 11, the building's fire alarm system was placed on "test condition." On September 11, it was again put on test condition, at 6:47 a.m., and only returned to normal monitoring, automatically, eight hours later, at 2:47 p.m.
Around 8 A.M. "Dancing Israelis" First seen in New Jersey Parking lot
The five men were detained by Sergeant Scott DeCarlo of the New Jersey Police Department around 4pm on September 11th.[7]. The police and FBI field agents became suspicious when they found maps of the city with certain places highlighted, box cutters (the same items that the 19 hijackers supposedly used), $4,700 cash stuffed in a sock, and foreign passports. Police also told a New Jersey local paper, The Bergen Record, that bomb sniffing dogs were brought to the van and that they reacted as if they had smelled explosives. According to the Jewish Weekly Forward the FBI later determined that at least two of the Israelis (Sivan Kurzberg and Paul Kurzberg) were agents of the Mossad.[8][9]

(After 8:37 a.m.)

NORAD gives the command to scramble fighters after Flight 11 after being notified (see (8:37 a.m.)). Lt. Colonel Dawne Deskins at NEADS tells Colonel Robert Marr, head of NEADS, “I have FAA on the phone, the shout line, Boston Center. They said they have a hijacked aircraft.” Marr then calls Major General Larry Arnold at NORAD's command Center in Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida, and says, “Boss, I need to scramble [fighters at] Otis [Air National Guard Base].” Arnold recalls, “I said go ahead and scramble them, and we'll get the authorities later.” Arnold then calls NORAD headquarters to report. [ABC News, 9/11/02, Independent Commission Report, 6/17/04] Then, seeing the proper authorization, NEADS calls Canadian Captain Mike Jellinek at NORAD's Colorado headquarters. Jellinek is sitting near Canadian Air Force Major General Rick Findley, director of combat operations there. Findley's staff is “already on high alert” because of a joint US-Canada exercise known as Vigilant Guardian (see (6:30 a.m.)), and another joint exercise known as Operation Northern Vigilance (see (9:00 a.m.))

MAN WHAT A COINCIDINKLE THAT ALL MAJOR US MILITARY BRANCHES ARE ENGAGED IN SIMULATIONS THAT INVOLVE HIJACKED AIRPLANES ON THIS MORNING HUH???!?!!?

The Icing on the cake: 5 israeli men arrested with a van packed with explosives on George Washington bridge.
This event has nearly been memory-holed from the population. And I deem it my responsibility to remind the population what happened on this horrific day.
CNN video of reporting.
ABC report as well
Anyway, all reports have the same story: 2-3 men being arrested on the George Washington bridge PACKED with explosives. Reports state that amount of explosives could've "done severe damage to the bridge". Now I cant find a source for what was said after the Israeli men were arrested, but I can remember from memory what was said, i'd love if someone can confirm my picture perfect memory correct on this:
"We are not the enemy. The Palestinians are the problem. We are your friends."
something along those lines were said to the arresting officer. In FOIA requests of this event, it has been deemed "Top Secret".

Other interesting facts and videos:
3 facts that PROVE controlled demolition.
48 disturbing facts about 9/11
Very important information on WTC 7.

9/11 single handed, proves that we as the people are brainwashed into believing everything you see. This needs to be known.

One last thing...
https://nypost.com/2002/02/13/911-link-eyed-in-fiery-death-of-crooked-dmv-worke
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/terror-links-in-tenn-mystery/

Terror Links In Tenn. Mystery?
Shortly before 1 a.m. on Feb. 10, witnesses saw flames erupt from the back seat of a 1992 Acura Legend as it crawled along a two-lane road skirting farm fields in the little Tennessee town of Piperton.
The driver breathed in the flames, her lungs searing, as the car veered off the road and came to rest against a utility pole near the Mississippi state line. There were no skid marks or furrows in the grass to indicate the driver had hit the brakes.
A witness rushed up and pulled open the car door, but the driver was not moving. She appeared to be already dead. When the first volunteer firefighters arrived, the car was engulfed in flames.
wait for it...
Shortly after she showed up for work, a man from the Toyota, Khaled Odtllah, a native of Jerusalem, joined the morning rush into the building. According to an FBI affidavit, he was clutching four signed driver's license applications.
WAIT. FOR. IT.
With Odtllah, police found Mostafa Said Abou-Shahi, Mohammed Fares, Sakher Hammad and his cousin Abdelmuhsen Mahmid Hammad. An unnamed juvenile was also taken into custody.
A few months ago, the contets of Sakher Hammad's wallet would have seemed innocuous: Two video rental cards; two major credit cards; a card designating him a “charter member” of Team Ford Racing; a New York plumber's business card.
And a pass, dated 09/05/01 that gave him access to the lower basement of One World Trade Center.
UH OH
Authorities say Sakher Hammad told them he is plumber, and that he and his cousin were in the tower to work on the sprinkler system. New York authorities have no record of a plumber's license for either cousin.
A business card in Sakher Hammad's wallet was for a Magic Plumbing & Heating Inc. in Brooklyn. It advertises “custom kitchens, bathrooms, water heaters, boilers, repiping” - generally residential in nature.
A call to the business produced only a full voice-mailbox for someone named “Rocky.” Using a reverse telephone directory, the AP found a list of phone numbers at the company's street address, all of them for individuals, among them Sakher Hammad.

Family members have refused to talk. A wary elderly neighbor said, “I believe somebody killed her.”
Let me leave you with this thought: This woman engulfed in flames out of no where and was burned beyond recognition before the car even halted to a stop, gently I might add.
Isn't it weird that the twin towers just collapsed out of no where, with molten steel spewing for weeks to months after the attacks?
Kinda makes you wonder if those "middle eastern men" had some left over presents from their WTC visit to "fix the sprinkler system" from 09/05/2001.

Let me know if I left anything out. Honestly, I could make infinite amounts of posts about 9/11 because of the amount of info here to grasp. Yet, none of what Ive posted has been disprove yet... hmmm.
Wow I havent checked this since last night before I went to bed. Thank you so much everyone for the feedback and rewards!!(:
I love you all.
submitted by Worm2120 to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2020.08.16 07:53 Samus_ Resumen de r/Uruguay - 2020-08-05

Bancos digitales 9 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Seguro para el hogar? 8 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Armado de PC - Amazon - UY - Courier y costos 8 comentarios (1 nuevo)
El problema de Argentina, y de Uruguay en menor medida también 41 comentarios (1 nuevo)
¿Cuál es la función de un ejército en Uruguay? 122 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Ese momento en que te das cuenta que este video se grabó en Uruguay 50 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Cuánto demora el trámite de homologación en la URSEC? 22 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Hablar sobre Mujica aún vende: publicó este TikTok hace cinco días y ya tiene 1.4 M de vistas 9 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Lorena Ponce de León: “Yo no estoy atrás de Luis, yo estoy al lado” https://www.montevideo.com.uy/Noticias/Lorena-Ponce-de-Leon--Yo-no-estoy-atras-de-Luis-yo-estoy-al-lado--uc760267 10 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Hice un bot que hace un scraping de la pagina del registro civil para poder pedir una cita 20 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Denuncias sobre violencia de género y acoso contra Alvaro Villar. Comunicado de un grupo feminista. 56 comentarios (9 nuevos)
Sobre Antel y Dedicado, consulta 18 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Lunes de los sueños. 15 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Futuro de Antel en disputa: polémica por fibra óptica 95 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Tarjeta Itaú internacional: Transacciones negadas. 25 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Si 31 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Uy recibirá medicamento contra Covid 28 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Antonio Ladra on Twitter: La casa en construcción en la playa La Serena, Rocha tiene como titular a Lorena Ponce de León 33 comentarios (4 nuevos)
[Serio] Costo de mantener un auto en Uruguay? 33 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Partido Nacional vs Partido Colorado 19 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Fuentes renovables abastecen el 98% de la generación eléctrica en Uruguay 28 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Los políticos quieren danette 26 comentarios (6 nuevos)
Adeom protestó por creación de 1.000 puestos y reclamó el ingreso de 400 trabajadoras 4 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Precio de vacuna para gatos? 7 comentarios (2 nuevos)
¿Dónde pedir un buen chivito? 12 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Neon Genesis Pou 10 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Solidaria.. 10 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Hice un video de alguna de las veces que Uruguay aparece en películas de Hollywood. Por ahí a alguno le interesa jeje 16 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Del país del Arroyo seco y Punta gorda 4 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Perros en freezers, denuncias de zoofilia y torturas: requisa por maltrato animal 7 comentarios (2 nuevos)
No vengo a mangear encuesta, pero la duda existencia que tengo es: Cúal es el mejor alfajor??? 17 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Países por afiliación religiosa. 39 comentarios (19 nuevos)
Minuto 8:50 “el peor presidente de Uruguay”. 18 comentarios (6 nuevos)
Lacalle Pou le bajó el pulgar a Manini por Ley de Caducidad: "Muchos sectores necesitan respuestas" 8 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Todos los dias desde las 20:30 voy estar enseñando aprendizaje automatico en youtube con python 17 comentarios (5 nuevos)
comprar por ebay 4 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Sectores del Frente Amplio 29 comentarios (18 nuevos)
Sobre propinas 22 comentarios (11 nuevos)
Contendiente a Maneco y Bonanza en Minas. Barba falsa y vuela. Tas loco. 5 comentarios (1 nuevo)
Batnini 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
"Dios nos mandó a Manini Ríos y tenemos un nuevo general" para guiarnos. 8 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Luna Llena / @astropolo_ 22 comentarios (11 nuevos)
Me recomiendan algun corto uruguayo? 9 comentarios (3 nuevos)
A quien no le pasó? 4 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Otra vez Instagram no me decepciona. 15 comentarios (6 nuevos)
La casa en construcción en la playa La Serena, Rocha tiene como titular a Lorena Ponce de León. Cuando creas un Ministerio de Ambiente y en simultáneo tenes la habilitación para construir una casa en medio de las dunas, a pocos metros del océano. ESO SÍ ES AMBIENTE SUSTENTABLE! 10 comentarios (6 nuevos)
Pregunta más estupida del mundo 9 comentarios (4 nuevos)
lo aman o lo odian. edificio ciudadela, 1958 - 1963, sichero bouret, 12 comentarios (9 nuevos)
From Little Havana to the sub 13 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Buenas que es mejor la salud publica o las mutualistas? 22 comentarios (22 nuevos)
Soledad, amigos y adolescencia. 30 comentarios (30 nuevos)
¿Saben de algún lugar donde podría conseguir una conexión rápida de internet? 16 comentarios (16 nuevos)
Martes de RANT. 33 comentarios (33 nuevos)
Antel recibió el premio al mejor Data Center de América Latina 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
Dirigentes del FA y el PN coinciden con el presidente en mantener actual estructura de la Fiscalía 9 comentarios (9 nuevos)
Informe ambiental sobre la casa de Lacalle Pou 14 comentarios (14 nuevos)
Soy un vende patria 16 comentarios (16 nuevos)
Sartoridilios, preparándonos para la Invasión de Argentinos 0 comentarios
Só Lula pode nos salvar do golpe 0 comentarios
Tacuarembó suma otro dinosaurio carnívoro del Jurásico: con ustedes el Ceratosaurus 11 comentarios (11 nuevos)
Four loko en Uruguay 0 comentarios
Manini sobre algunos fallos: "Ni Jack El Destripador es perseguido 40 años después" 18 comentarios (18 nuevos)
La nueva medida que permite a los free shops vender mercadería en stock a uruguayos 14 comentarios (14 nuevos)
Zona en disputa con Brasil - Artigas? 8 comentarios (8 nuevos)
Uruguay, desde el punto de vista de un migrante. 101 comentarios (101 nuevos)
Si sos joven (o no) leete esto...filosofada que me hizo entender y me sacó de muchos pozos... 8 comentarios (8 nuevos)
Platzi, Udemy, Coursera ¿Cual recomiendan y porque? 16 comentarios (16 nuevos)
Richard Read: “El PIT-CNT está como un surfista caminando por las calles de Bolivia” 11 comentarios (11 nuevos)
Mujica: “No acepto que me digan ‘pero vos vivís con una pobreza’. . .te vas a cagar”. 9 comentarios (9 nuevos)
Bo 27 comentarios (27 nuevos)
Manini criticó fallo de CIDH por caso Gelman: "Reivindicamos nuestra soberaní­a nacional" 6 comentarios (6 nuevos)
Gral. Flores - 1948 4 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Una vez lei que estaba Bill Gates ahí, sin dudas unos de los mitos más grandes de internet, que para averiguar cuesta U$$ 5,99. 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Comunicado de prensa MRREE - MEF- MGAP: Publicación en cuenta oficial de Twitter de Naciones Unidas respecto de la producción de carne 13 comentarios (13 nuevos)
(NSFW) A la pipeta! 6 comentarios (6 nuevos)
INDDHH determinó que hubo “violación a los DDHH” en operativo policial en Malvín Norte 15 comentarios (15 nuevos)
asklatinamerica es tremendo cringe 23 comentarios (23 nuevos)
Manini busca instalar "agenda que defiende a acusados de violaciones, torturas, asesinatos", dijo diputada Mato 34 comentarios (34 nuevos)
Bergara: gobierno "ahorra en plena crisis" y está "lejos" de "proteger a más vulnerables" 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
RENUNCIA, LARRY!!! 10 comentarios (10 nuevos)
Experiencias trabajando en Sura? 3 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Saben jugar al truco? 19 comentarios (19 nuevos)
Murga son las mil esquinas... 2 comentarios (2 nuevos)
ONU: Cierre de escuelas por virus afecta a 1.000 millones de estudiantes. Gráfica y mapamundi que visualiza la situación. 0 comentarios
Telos 20 comentarios (20 nuevos)
Tu defecto es el mio. Cover NTVG 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
Para su puro entretenimiento ,compré unos auriculares Bluetooth a 86 pesos en la cuenta oficial de Energy Sistem ,llegarán ? Apuestas . (Si no llegan voy a apelar a la ley de derecho al consumidor ya que en este país es una de las pocas cosas excelentes que nos quedan y por lo menos paso el rato) 42 comentarios (42 nuevos)
gracias sanma 0 comentarios
equisde 2 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Encontre este juego peruano sobre carpinchos en kickstarter 4 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Migrantes cubanos ven como un problema que Uruguay exija test de Covid- 19 para ingresar al país 23 comentarios (23 nuevos)
Consejos para agarrar trabajo en TI 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Natalie Yoffe indignada por "lista negra" de actores que votaron multicolor 19 comentarios (19 nuevos)
Larrañaga sobre el policía asesinado: "Los honestos de este país estamos de luto" 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
En Rick & Morty hacen referencia al accidente de los Andes 6 comentarios (6 nuevos)
Tips para concentrarse? 11 comentarios (11 nuevos)
imac 3 comentarios (3 nuevos)
Buscan castigar con hasta dos años de prisión a quienes generen peligro por incumplir las normativas sanitarias 7 comentarios (7 nuevos)
Pregunta 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
Creen haber hallado un caparazón de gliptodonte en “La Guitarra”, Kiyú 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
Opiniones de la ORT y becas 4 comentarios (4 nuevos)
Real Estate Buyers Social Distancing As Far Away As Uruguay 9 comentarios (9 nuevos)
Qué pasó con esa tienda de las converse en instagram? 2 comentarios (2 nuevos)
Soy yo o no hay comerciales de McDonalds, Burger King o Starbucks 10 comentarios (10 nuevos)
No puedo llamar al 911¿? Desvío de llamada condicional¿? 5 comentarios (5 nuevos)
Viste el Vídeo de la Explosión en Beirut, Libano 0 comentarios
car wash 0 comentarios
No debo ser el primero en darme cuenta, pero "The Great Sun" de Witcher me suena de algo 1 comentario (1 nuevo)
Lacalle cantando big time rush 0 comentarios
2020-08-04 07:00 - 2020-08-05 07:00
submitted by Samus_ to ResumenDeUruguay [link] [comments]


2020.08.12 03:55 removalbot 08-12 01:55 - 'Daily Rundown and Discussion for Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Tuesday 11th August' (self.unitedkingdom) by /u/rrixham removed from /r/unitedkingdom within 3-13min

'''
Post Summary:
Post Notes:
Figures above are counted from 10-Aug-20. Today's results from NI and Scotland are listed below. NHS England not counted: cases where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate and no positive test result was received therefore, not included in the official daily count. Asterisk\* waiting for new data will update when it becomes available.
Updates:
[ Tuesday's Figures 1: hospital deaths and backlog (NHS England) ]13
[ Tuesday's Figures 2: breakdown by nation ]14
[ England comparison for previous Tuesday's (NHS) ]15
[ Actual date of death in England (hospital) ]16
[ Deaths of patients split by age-band (hospital) ]17
[ Deaths of patients split by region (hospital) ]18
[ NHS England: Actual daily deaths and backlog changes. ]19
[ Cases in England by Age & Sex ]20
[ Cases in Scotland by Age & Sex ]21
[ Weekly rate of Covid-19 cases per 100,000 population Pillar 1 and 2 by UTLA (England) ]22
[ Daily excess all-cause deaths in all ages 01-Jan to 29-Jul ]23
[Download the Data]24
[ Deaths involving Covid-19 in Care Home Residents By Place of Occurrence 17-Apr to 7-Aug ]25
[ Deaths involving Covid-19 occurring in Care Homes 14-Apr to 7-Aug 20 ]26
[ ONS: Weekly provisional figures on deaths (England & Wales) ]27
[ Excess Deaths England & Wales (ONS) ]28
[Download the Data]29
[ Excess Deaths in Scotland (NRS) ]30
[ Tuesday's figures 3: Tests Processed in the UK ]31
[ UK testing for all 4 pillars ]32
[Download the Data]33
[ New Infections vs Latest Deaths (UK) Today's deaths NA ]34
[ Situation Update Worldwide ]35
Excess Deaths:
Additional News and Updates:
Please remember:
Thanks for viewing, I'll be back again tomorrow. Please stay safe :)
'''
Daily Rundown and Discussion for Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Tuesday 11th August
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: rrixham
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c*vid1**phw*tatement.*hs.wal*** 54: *w*.gov.*k*governme**/publica***ns/national-covid*19-s**v*il***ce-**ports 55: www*gov.uk*gove*nment/pub**cat***s/**c*ss-mortality*in-*ngland-we*k*y-*ep*r** 56: *ww.go**uk/gove*nment/c***e*t*o*s/n*s-t*st-and*trace-stati*t*c*-england*w**kly-r*p**ts 57: w*w.*e**graph*co.uk/n**s/c*ronav*r*s-uk***s*s-deaths-w**ld-map-*ive/ 58: w*w*nh*.u*/cond*****s/coronavir*s-*o*id-19/sy*ptoms/ 59: w*w.nh*.uk/c***ition***or*navirus-covi**19/*e*ting-*or-cor*navi*u*/ 60: www.gov.scot/p**l*ca*i*ns/*or**a*irus*co*id-*9**est*an*-*rot**t/pages/in*r*duction/ 61: *ov.wale*/a***y-co**n*virus-test 62: www*publ*ch*alth.hsc*i.n**/c**i*-19-c*ro*aviru*/te**in*-and-tra*ing**ovi**1*/t**ting-covid-19 63: www.gov*uk*gov*rnment/news*statem*nt-fr**-the-u*-*h*e*-m*dic*l-o*fice*s-on-*xt*ns*o*-of-s***-*sol*tion-per*o****-jul*-2020
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2020.08.10 23:49 menem95 Análisis American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL)

Hola, buenas! primero que nada, aclaro que soy medio nuevo en esto (leí varios libros y demás pero no soy ningún especialista). Hace unos días venia leyendo notas de portales y diarios que aconsejaban comprar esta acción, y el hype despertó mi curiosidad, por lo que estos últimos días dedique un rato a hacer mi humilde investigación, para ver que onda. Dejo acá lo que hice, quizás a alguno le sirva. Podrán ver que el approach es puramente análisis fundamental y me base en cosas que aprendí de los libros de Graham y similares, si alguno quiere corregirme cosas (que debe haber varias) o contarme que cosas agregarían a la hora de investigar y analizar empresas estaría muy agradecido.

-American Airlines Inc. (AAL)

American Airlines Group Inc.[1] (conocida como AA o simplemente como “American”) es una corporación basada en Forth Worth TX, EEUU. La acción cotiza bajo el ticker AAL en el NASDAQ a un precio al cierre del 6/8/2020 de $13,04 dólares por acción.
Su principal operación es el transporte aéreo, tanto de personas como de carga. A través tanto de sus aerolíneas propias subsidiarias como de las aerolíneas regionales que operan bajo el nombre de “American Eagle” (tanto propias como 3ros), el Grupo opera un promedio de 6800 vuelos por día a mas de 365 destinos en 61 países. American Airlines tiene un tamaño prominente, es actualmente la aerolínea mas grande del mundo bajo varios parámetros (pasajeros transportados, tamaño de flota etc.). En cuanto a la competencia, en el ámbito doméstico, las rutas son altamente competitivas, aerolíneas como Delta, Frontier, Southwest o United son una fuerte competencia. También compiten con aerolíneas charter y de carga y, sobre todo en segmentos mas cortos transporte terrestre y ferroviario. La competencia de las low cost va in crescendo. Asimismo, AA provee servicio internacional a una variedad de destinos. El grupo tiene una capitalización de mercado de 6632 millones de USD.
Respecto a la posición financiera de la empresa, a junio de 2020, la empresa tiene activos corrientes por 13789M de USD y pasivos corrientes por 18000M de USD (por lo que el current ratio es de 0,766 lo cual representa una mejoría respecto al 0,444 de diciembre 2019). El working capital por lo tanto es negativo, igual a -4211M USD (contra la figura negativa de -10105M de USD para dic-2019). La deuda de largo plazo es de 28698M USD (representando un fuerte incremento contra 21454M USD en dic-2019 y 21179M USD para dic-2018).
Respecto a las ganancias de la compañía. AAL reporto una pérdida de 4308M de USD (1S 2020), contra una ganancia de 847M USD para 1S 2019. Si miramos el historial de ganancias netas de los últimos 10 años, el historial de American Airlines es irregular, tiene 4 años de perdidas (2010-2013), con muy malos prospectos para 2020, no obstante, los últimos 5 años sin contar 2020 (por la situación excepcional del COVID), resultaron en ganancias netas para AA.

Año (ene-dic) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Income (M USD) -471 -1979 -1876 -1834 2882 7610 2676 1282 1412 1686
Dif. Anual (%) ------- -320,17 5,2 2,24 257,14 264,05 -64,84 -52,09 10,14 19,41

Si evaluamos la evolución y crecimiento de las ganancias en 10 años, teniendo en cuenta el net income promedio de los últimos 3 años y los primeros 3 años, así como el promedio de las acciones circulantes bajo el mismo criterio, el EPS evolucionó un 151% de -6,12 a un EPS de 3,14.[2] No obstante esta evolución se ve truncada por la crisis que atraviesa actualmente la empresa, bajo la cual, actualmente una acción de AAL tiene un EPS de -8,02. Para el Q2 2020 AAL tiene un EPS de -4,82, mientras que para Q2 2019 había tenido un EPS de 0,67. Anualizado el EPS es de para el ultimo año de -8,07 (con pérdidas estimadas en 3461M para el conjunto de S2 2019 y S1 2020).
La caída de la empresa (y de la industria aeronáutica en general), debido a la crisis del COVID-19 este último trimestre es dramática, American tuvo ingresos por transporte de pasajeros de 11.011M USD en el Q2 2019, que se redujeron a la exigua cifra de 1.108M USD en el Q2 2020, una caída del 90%. En transporte de carga la caída fue inferior (del 41%) pero su incidencia es mínima, ya que paso de 221M USD a 130.
Evaluando un poco mas la fuerza financiera de la empresa, y nos referimos al flujo de efectivo proveniente de operaciones, encontramos que AAL recibió 2295M en el 1S 2020, contra 2335 en 1S 2019 (-1.7%). Evaluando la evolución en 10 años de este parámetro:

Año (ene-dic) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CF de Operaciones (Mill. USD) 1241 743 1285 675 3080 6249 6524 4744 3533 3815
Dif. Anual (%) ------- -40,13 72,95 -47,47 356,3 102,89 4,4 -27,28 -25,53 7,98
Podemos ver en el cuadro que el cash Flow de operaciones evoluciono de forma irregular, si bien se observa un crecimiento sustancial en los últimos años en relación a los primeros. Respecto a la estructura de capital de la empresa, el total capital (deuda de largo plazo + total shareholder equity), al 30 de junio, este valor se encontraba en el orden de los 25529M USD (reportaron stockholder equity negativo por 3169 M de dólares), por lo que la deuda de largo plazo resulta el 112% del total capital. Para peor, hasta 15.134M de la deuda (54%) puede estar sujeta a tasas variables.
Respecto a la política de dividendos, hay registro de pagos constantes de un dividendo de $0,4 (anual) por acción desde al menos 2014.[3] Mirando algunos ratios el P/E, de acuerdo con la ganancia de los últimos 3 años, bajo un precio de $13,04 es de 4,16. Ahora, si consideramos el resultado nefasto del ultimo semestre, el resultado es de -1,62. El Price to Book ratio también es negativo, de -1,76.
Cabe hacer un par de consideraciones y comparaciones en relación al sector en el que el grupo opera, la industria aeronáutica es complicada, el mismísimo Warren Buffett expreso sus reservas a la hora de invertir en aerolíneas (no es que no lo haga, de hecho, Berkshire es uno de los top holders, con el 8,24% al 30/3/2020).[4] Como dijimos, AAL es una empresa líder en el sector, y sus competidores más fuertes son Delta, United, Southwest, y la alemana Lufthansa (entre otros de menor peso). Haciendo una pequeña comparación[5] con estas empresas, American es la que peor EPS tiene a la fecha (TTM), con -8,17 (United, Delta y Lufthansa oscilan entre -5,23 y -6,10, Southwest pudo mantener un EPS positivo con 0,41). El performance de las acciones de estas compañías va en la misma línea, Southwest fue la compañía que menos perdió (-38,35% YTD), contra desempeños en el rango de -47,85% (Lufthansa) y -61,03% (United) de las otras compañías, AAL se ubica en el medio de estas otras compañías con -54,57% de perdida YTD.
Si miramos el current ratio, el 0,77 de American esta en la línea de las demás (Lufthansa tiene 0,54, United 0,61 y Delta 0,94) pero se ve ampliamente superada por el 1,7 que ostenta Southwest. En cuanto a la deuda, American esta en desventaja, tiene deuda neta por casi 30MM USD, mucho mas que cualquier otra empresa en la comparación (la que le sigue es United con 17,39MM). En el margen operativo tambien se la ve en desventaja, ya que tiene un -10,68% de margen, contra márgenes entre el -2,13% (Delta) y -5,18% (Lufthansa) de las otras empresas. El margen neto de beneficios es similar al operativo para American (-10,40%), y en las otras empresas oscila entre -10,74% (Delta) y 0,99% (Southwest). Otro punto de comparación es la nomina salarial de American, dato no menor en estos tiempos de pandemia, ya que esta empresa tiene 133,8 mil empleados, mientras que las otras empresas tienen entre 138,35 mil empleados (Lufthansa) y 60.800 (Southwest).
Respecto al management de la compañía[6], en abril 2020, en atención a la situación excepcional del COVID 19, se decidió reducir en un 55% el salario del presidente (Robert D. Isom) y en 50% el salario de los vicepresidentes y el CEO. Para 2019 la compensación total anual del CEO fue de $11.571.714, mientras que para todos los otros empleados la remuneración anual promedio fue de $61.143. La compensación anual total del CEO se redujo un promedio de 2,5% anual desde 2017 a 2019, mientras que la compensación total de los otros executive officers no mostró cambios significativos, pese a que los ingresos de la empresa crecieron esos años.
Considerando todo esto, será vital la recuperación que se viene en el futuro cercano. Esta recuperación podría iniciar pronto, pero hay indicios de que va a ser lenta. Uno de esos indicios es que el Congreso de EEUU estaría viendo con buenos ojos una extensión del programa de ayuda al pago de salarios (PSP) por otros 6 meses.[7] En ese sentido, el approach de la empresa es claro, se vienen recortes en la plantilla de American, ante el inminente final de la primer edición del PSP en octubre, informándose un potencial recorte de hasta 28000 empleados, incluyendo alrededor de 2500 pilotos.[8] En el futuro turbulento que se viene, un punto positivo es la alta exposición de AAL al mercado domestico (en 2019 de 42010M USD ganados por transporte de pasajeros, 30881M USD, el 74% es en este mercado), que parece que reanudara su actividad mas rápido que las rutas internacionales. La empresa parecería haber relajado sus expectativas de corto plazo y prevé que la capacidad máxima para Agosto estará en el 60% de los niveles de agosto 2019.[9]
A forma de conclusión, es evidente que el sector fue uno de los mas afectados por la pandemia del COVID-19, y no es claro cuando se va a producir ni cuanto va a tardar la recuperación, hay indicios de que va a iniciar pronto,[10] pero es claro que va a ser difícil compensar el impacto provocado por esta crisis. Comparativamente, American no esta en una buena situación, fue (de las empresas que compare) la que mas se endeudo durante la pandemia. No obstante, el motivo por el que analice esta empresa fue que había cierto hype, se incremento el volumen operado de sus acciones, y se empezó a aconsejar su compra en diversos portales especializados.[11] American no deja de ser una compañía altamente endeudada, y los trimestres que viene van a ser críticos para la definición de su futuro (hay analistas que no descartan incluso un concurso preventivo o quiebra).[12] Por todo esto, si se decide apostar a las aerolíneas, quizás sea aconsejable analizar las empresas de la competencia (Southwest sobre todo), para ver mas a fondo sus situaciones particulares y moverse con prudencia.
Fuentes:
Form 10-K (31/12/2019): https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/static-files/d46a00e3-db05-4a91-af7a-fbe0fc2a7f08 (también Form 10-K de años anteriores, presentes en la pagina de IR de AA)
Form 10-Q Q2 2020: https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/static-files/30362e5e-3869-4171-a4c3-80ce327d09dc
Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAL/
Otras fuentes especificadas en los footnotes.

[1] Dado que se presentan estados financieros separados de American Airlines así como de American Airlines Group, salvo aclaración en contrario los datos pertenecen a esta última.
[2] Data de: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAL/american-airlines-group/shares-outstanding
[3] De: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aal/dividend-history
[4] De: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-warren-buffett-couldnt-own-airline-stocks-now-and-still-be-a-true-value-investor-2020-07-06
[5] Las comparaciones se hicieron con el screener de TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/screene
[6] Datos del proxy statement de la reunión anual de accionistas 2020: https://www.proxydocs.com/branding/965250/2020/
[7] Ver https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/08/a-payroll-support-extension-for-airlines-seems-inc.aspx y https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2020/08/07/airline-labor-unions-with-republican-backing-are-poised-for-another-historic-win/#3a177f752698
[8] De https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2020/08/04/american-airlines-inks-deal-with-pilots-as-it-tries-to-get-more-employees-to-take-leave-and-buyouts/
[9] De https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-getting-back-into-formation-for-coming-turbulence-11595521485
[10] Por ejemplo: https://www.forbes.com/sites/grantmartin/2020/08/09/american-airlines-brings-warm-food-back-to-airport-lounges/#24ef2f0764fc
[11] Como https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/08/09/stocks-this-week-buy-american-airlines-and-apple/#566d4b591c66 o también: https://investorplace.com/2020/07/aal-stock-buying-opportunity-below-its-sotp-value/
[12] Por ejemplo https://finance.yahoo.com/news/little-reason-optimism-american-airlines-100144310.html
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2020.07.21 17:20 OneSpookySneakySquid [SUMMARY] Definitely Not Assembled by Child Labor! Chinese Export Catalogue 2034

AERIAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Fighter Jets

 
Nomination Type Cost
J-20 5th Gen Jet Fighter US$72m
J-31 5th Gen Multirole Strike Fighter $60m
Chengdu ​JF-17B Thunder 4th Gen Multirole ​US$38m
Chengdu J-10A Single Seat Multirole US$30m
Chengdu J-10B Upgraded, AESA, IRST US$40m
Chengdu J-10C Upgraded, true 4th+ Gen US$60m
Shenyang J-11A Based on Su-27 US$45m
Shenyang J-11B Indigenous J-11. Also available in twin seat variant US$50m
Shenyang J-15 Carrier Variant of J-11 US$55m
Shenyang J-16 Twin Seat, Twin Engine Strike Jet US$55m
J-8T BVR Interceptor with JL-10A X-band radar, WP-13B-II engines US$25m
 
Light Attack Jets Cost
Guizhou JL-9 US$5m
Guizhou JL-9G US$9m
Hongdu JL-8 US$5m
Hongdu L-15 US$15m
Nanchang Q-5 US$15m
 

UAV and UCAV

There are a lot of them, but here is a list of the best and most exportable ones:
UCAV Type Cost
Hongdu GJ-11 MALE Stealth Jet UCAV, 3,000kg payload $20m
AVIC Cloud Shadow MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CAIG Wing Loon II MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CASC CH-7 HALE UCAV Stealth Jet UCAV, 2,500kg payload, not in production yet $Unknown
Guizhou WZ-2000 MALE Jet UCAV, 80kg payload $9m
UAV Type Cost
SYAC Divine Eagle HALE Recon UAV, with AESA, Optronic cameras and thermal imaging $8m
Guizhou Soar Dragon MALE Recon UAV, AEWAC $9m
GAIC Harrier Hawk MALE SARV $6m
BZK-005 Sea Eagle Maritime Catapult launched Recon UAV $5m
 

Larger Aircraft

 
Bomber Cost
Xian H-6 US$26m
Xian H-6K US$30m
[Xian H-20 $450m
 
Maritime Patrol Cost
​AG-600 (TA-600) ​​US$22m
Y-8 MPA US$15m
Y-8GX6 US$25m
HX-21 $135m
 
Transport Cost
Harbin Y-12 US$5m
Shaanxi Y-8 US$15m
Shaanxi Y-9 US$19m
Shaanxi Y-30 $30m
Xian Y-20A US$160m
 
ISR Cost
KJ-200 AEW US$70m
KJ-2000 AEW US$90m
KJ-3000 AEW US$180m
 
EW/ELINT Cost
Shenyang J-11D US$45m
Shenyang J-16D US$70.00 mln
​Y-9G ​ US$25.00 mln
Y-30G $38m
 
In Air Refuelling Plane Cost
RFY-21 $130m
Y-30Y $55m

Helicopters

Helicopter Type Cost
CAIC Z-10 Attack Helicopter $24m
CAIC Z-18G Utility / Transport $20m
CAIC Z-18J ASW / Naval $24m
CAIC Z-18M MEDEVAC $12m
Harbin Z-19 Light Attack/Eecon $12m
Harbin Z-20 Transport / Utility $10m
CAIG Z-50 Advanced Attack $30m
Avicopter AC-330 Super Heavy Transport $28m
 

NAVAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 
Carriers Cost
Type 002 CV US$1,800m
Type 003 CV US$2,800m
Type 004 CVN US$3,500m
Drone Destroyer $2,000m
 

Amphibious Naval Craft

 
Designation Type Cost
Type 075 class LHA US$750m
Type 081 class LPD US$500m
Type 071 Yuzhao class LPD US$300m
Type 072A class LST US$105m
Type 073 IV Yunshu class LSM US$80m
Type 074A Yubei class LSM US$55m
Jingsah II class LCAC US$15m
Type 726 Yuyi class LCAC US$35m
Type 067 Yunnan class LCU US$3.5m
Type 068 class LCU ​US$5m
Type 271III LCU US$4.5m
Type 271IIIA LCU US$9m
 

Major Surface Combatants

 
Cruisers Cost
Type 055 class US$1,250m
Type 055B class US$1,600m
Type 065 Class US$2,000m
 
Destroyers Cost
Type 051C Luzhou class US$800m
Type 052B Luyang I class US$500m
Type 052C Luyang II class US$800m
Type 052D class US$1,150m
Type 062 Class $1,500m
 
Frigates Cost
Type 053H3 Jiangwei-II class US$200m
Type 054 Jiangkai-I class US$375m
Type 054A Jiangkai-II class US$450m
​Type 054B Jiankai-III class ​ US$500m
Type 054C US$650m
Type 058 Optionally Manned Frigate US$650m
 
Corvettes Cost
Type 056 Jiangdao class US$45m
Type 056A Jiangdao class ​ US$60m
Type 057 $110m
 
Missile Ships Cost
Azmat class FACM* US$22m
Houdong class FACM US$25m
Type 022 Houbei class FAC US$15m
Type 023 Fast Missile Boat $25m
 
Patrol / Coast Guard Cost
1,000t class Type-I cutter US$14m
1,000t class Type-II cutter US$20m
1,500t class cutter US$45m
3,000t class cutter US$65m
Pattani class OPV US$45m
Type 718 class cutter US$30m
Zhaotou II 15,000 ton cutter $60m
 

Submarines

 
SSK Cost
Type 039G Song class US$340m
Type 039G1 Song class US$350m
Type 041 Yuan class US$600m
 
SSN Cost
Type 093 'Shang' class US$1,200m
Type 093G 'Shang' class US$1,400m
Type 095 class US$1,600m
 
SSBN Cost
Type 043 'Q US$750m
Type 094 'Jin' class US$1,500m
Type 096 'Tang' class US$2,500m
 
MSV Cost
Daijang class DSRV US$70m
 

Support Ships

 
Auxiliary Cost
Dajiang class AO US$120m
Dandao class AO not in production
Danlin class AO not in production
Dayun class AOR US$165m
Fuchang class AO US$70m
Fuchi class AOR US$230m
Fuijan class AO US$65m
Fulin class AOC US$45m
Fuqing class AO US$215m
Fusu class AOR US$325m
Fuzhou class AOC US$40m
Hongqi class AOC US$60m
Leizhou class AOC US$50m
Qinghaihu Class AOR US$433m
Shengli class AOC US$40m
Yantai class AOR US$165m
 
Transport Cost
Fuxianhu class Troop Transport US$150m
Qiongsha class troop transport US$96m
Type 904 class transport US$100m
 
Hospital Ship Cost
Daishandao class AH US$125m
Qiongsha class AH US$96m
Shichang class AGF US$225m
 
Icebreaker Cost
Yanbing class icebreaker US$75m
Yanha class icebreaker US$55m
 

MISSILE SYSTEMS EXPORT

 
ICBMs Cost
DongFeng 31 US$12m
DongFeng 31A US$14m
DongFeng 41 US$20m
 
IRBMs Cost
DongFeng 16 US$12m
DongFeng 26 US$15m
 
MRBMs Cost
DongFeng 21D US$6m
DongFeng 25 US$8m
KT-II US$6m
KT-IIA US$6.5m
KT-III US$7.5m
 
SRBMs Cost
B-611 US$6m
Dong Feng 15 US$2.9m
 
Tactical Missiles Notes Cost
CJ-25 Air Launched Cruise Missile, 500kg warhead $900k
DF-10B Ground-launched cruise missile. Speed limited to Mach 4.5 with low-observable features and a more precise guidance system built into the launch vehicle. Range of 1,200km $20m per system, $400k per missile
YJ-200 VLS LAunched Cruise Missile, range of 800km $600k per missile
YJ-22 VLS-launched Antiship Missile, range of 550km $500k per missile
YJ-22A Submarine launched Cruise Missile, range of 550km $550k per missile
YJ-22B Land Attack Cruise Missile launched from shipping containers, range of 700km $5m per system and $600k per missile
YJ-22C Ground-launched Antiship Missile, range of 700km $18m per launcher and $500k per missile

Air Defence

Missile Defence System Summary Cost
Taikong Mubiao Daodan Ballistic Missile Defence Brigade (20 Vehicles) $2.5 bn
Terminal Interceptor Battalion Mobile Modular BMD (10 Massive Vehicles) $1 bn
[HQ-29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants ABM SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $600m
HQ-19 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $400m
HQ-9 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $200m
HQ-7 SHORAD Battery (22 Vehicles) $120m
HQ-7 FM-80_Self-Propelled) Single SHORAD Vehicle $8m
LW-30 Laser Point Vefence Vehicle $12m
DY-90 Towed SHORAD Missile Launcher $2.5m
 

LAND SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Armoured Vehicles

Main Battle Tanks Cost
Type 102 $8m
Type 90-IIM US$4m
Type 96 US$5m
Type 96G US$6m
Type 99 US$2.5m
Type 99A US$4.5m
Type 99A2 US$5m
 
Light Tanks Cost
Type 63A US$2.5m
Type 92A2L US$3.5m
​VT5 ​ US$4m
ZBD2000 (105mm) US$5m
 
Tank Destroyers Cost
PTL02 US$1m
​ZTL09 ​ US$3.5m
 
APCs Cost
Type 92 APC US$1m
ZFB-05 US$400k
 
IFVs Cost
Type 92 IFV US$1.75m
Type 97 IFV US$4m
YW 307 US$500k
ZBD-04 US$4.75m
ZBD-08 US$5.5m
ZBL-09 US$6.25m
ZBD2000 Airborne IFV US$6.5m
ZLC2000 Airborne IFV US$7.25m
 

Artillery

 
Artillery Cost
PLZ-09 155mm SP Howitzer $4.5m
PLZ-07 122mm SP Howitzer
AH-4 Lightweight Towed 155mm US$3m
[PLL-01](military-today.com/artillery/pll_01.htm) 155mm Towed Howitzer US$1.25m
Type 59 howitzer US$750k
Type 60 Field Gun US$600k
Type 66 howitzer US$600k
Type 83 howitzer US$750k
Type 86 howitzer US$1m
Type 89 122mm SP howitzer US$1.2m
 
AA Guns Cost
PGZ-07 US$15m
Type 59 (57mm) US$1.25m
Type 74 (37mm) US$1m
Type 80 US$3m
Type 85 US$1m
Type 87 US$1.5m
Type 90 (35mm) US$2.75m
Type 95 SPAAG US$12.5m
 
ATGM 4x4 Cost
Type 89 ATGM US$2.25m
Type 92 ATGM US$2.25m
 
Heavy Misc Cost
WS2100 Series 6x6 $60k
WS2200 Series 8x8 $140k
WS2300 Series 6x6 Offroad $300k
WS2400 Series 8x8 Offroad $520k
WS2500 Series 10x10 $1.2m
WS2600 Series 8x10 Offroad $1.7m
WS51 and 52 Series $2.4m
TA5380 Series Average $1.9m
 
Light Misc Cost
QL550 US$75k
8M US$1.25m
QD2008 US$1m
VP3 US$1m
BJ2020 US$15k
BJ2022 US$25k
EQ2050 US$20k
NJ2045 US$25k
NJ2046 US$30k
 
 

CIVILIAN PURCHASE INFORMATION

Company Industry
Cosco Group Commercial shipping
China Merchant Holdings int. Port Development
Guangxi LiuGong & XCMG Heavy equipment
CNPC Exploration & Development Company Energy exploration
China Three Gorges Group Renewables (solar, wind, hydro)
China State Grid Corp Power Grid
China Railway Group & China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation Rail
China Railway Corporation High Speed Rail
China National Nuclear Corporation Nuclear energy
 

NUCLEAR REACTOR EXPORTS

Product MWe Cost
CAP1400 1400 US$7.5bn
HCPR-1 1170 US$6.5bn
ACPR-1000+ 1050 US$13.6bn
HTGR-200 200 US$2.2bn
 

High Speed Trains

Model Speed (op/max) Cost
CR400AF/BF 300/468 km/h US$2.1m
CRH380A 350/486 km/h US$1.8m
CRH6 200/346 km/h US$1.2m
 

SATELLITE EXPORTS

Communications Sats Cost
Fenghuo US$525m
Shentong US$125m
Earth Observation Sats Cost
Yaogan Optical US$700m
Yaogan SAR US$1,350m
Huanjing SAR US$1,150m
 

If you would like to place an order for any civilian or military items, this is the only location to buy them.

Credit where it is due to S01780 and Spummydue
submitted by OneSpookySneakySquid to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]


2020.07.17 23:37 GIJoeVibin Touch the sky

Hello, I promised a supplemental to my currently ongoing series, so here it is. If you've never read any of my stuff before, and enjoy this one, why don't you check out said series after you're finished? This story happens parallel to the latest installment, but won't feature any spoilers, so it's fine to read this first.
Nothing else to plug, comments questions complaints are appreciated, because I have nothing else to do with my time than read them.
Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Harris strode out onto the asphalt, with his Recon Systems Officer, Major Jack Cleaver trailing. Today was a special day, the kind of day he had been expecting for close to a decade now.
Today he got to fly his pride and joy.
He moved towards his craft. It was all black, with short wings that stretched back, terminating with twin tails on it’s tips, creating a sort of stretched triangle shape from above. The central bulge, which housed the cockpit, was covered in technicians who were checking and rechecking every centimetre of the plane for any possible defects, as well as it’s various flight systems.
Harris was passed his helmet by a technician, which he then sat on his head. He checked the seals, finding no problems. At the altitudes he’d be flying at, it could be a matter of life and death. He came up to the ladder, which he rapidly climbed, and then inserted himself into the cockpit. It was filled with buttons, dials, and levers. None of this came as a surprise to Harris of course, who had flown many times before. He’d just never flown the plane over a hostile power. Nor a hostile power that was capable of putting interceptors into the sky. Especially not an alien hostile power.
A technician double-checked Harris’ suit, finding no problems. He gave a thumbs up, then connected the suit to an air hose. Another test, and the technician was satisfied. He saluted, then retreated down the ladder.
“Cleaver, you good?” Being a Lieutenant Colonel, and having the rare skills to fly such a highly prized aircraft, allowed Harris a heavy degree of leniency in the way he conducted radio communications with Cleaver, who sat in a separate cabin behind him.
“All good here. Systems check complete. We’re good for takeoff.”
“Contacting ATC now.” Harris switched frequencies. “ATC Groom Lake, this is Jaguar, we’re ready for takeoff, over.”
“Understood Jaguar. Ground crew are clearing you now. Standby. I’ve been told to inform you the president is watching closely, over.”
Unsurprising really. This was a big mission, and of course the entire chain of command would be interested. Idly, Harris wondered whether previous presidents had even been aware of this plane. Plausible deniability was extremely common for projects like this.
“Jaguar, runway is clear. You are clear for takeoff. Good luck.”
Harris smiled, and began to throttle the engine. The aircraft began to move on the runway, slowly at first. Well, slow relative to what it could go at. The speed built and built as the plane accelerated along the 2.2 mile runway, until it’s landing gear gently decoupled from the asphalt. The speed only continued to grow as the gears were retracted, the plane rapidly leaving it’s base behind. Harris directed his craft into the sky, careful not to exceed Mach 1 yet. That would come later.
Traditionally, he’d have had to carefully manage his flight path to avoid commercial flights. That wasn’t a problem now, with commercial pilots being drafted en masse, and all aircraft fuel being diverted to air forces. Tonight was a chance to luxuriate in an airspace with only military jets in his way.
As the plane shot off into the sky, a veteran project watcher camped out on one of the many mountains near Groom Lake saw it’s climb. He smiled, happy that in this time of great uncertainty and upheaval, one thing was certain. The Aurora had flown again.
“Nosing her in for a fill up now Cleaver. Anything to report?” Harris asked almost half-heartedly, his attention fixated on the KC-10 as he navigated the Aurora towards the refuelling boom. It was escorted by 4 F-16s, which seemed a bit overkill this far from alien fighters, but then again who knew what they’d get up to?
“Nope, nothing from command. We just passed over CSG 13, transmitting a test photo to command now to check our systems.” Carrier Strike Group 13 was a jumble of nations. It centred on the HMS Queen Elizabeth, supported by 2 of the 3 surviving Astute class subs, and escorted by a mix of out-of-mothballs US Navy destroyers, Canadian frigates, and Australian destroyers. They worked mostly as a convoy escort group, too messy to be patrolling the North Sea where they were at risk.
“Test photos have been successfully received by UNCO, no issues with our equipment.” That was comforting. Any problems now, would require an abort of the mission for repairs.
“Very good.” Harris pushed a button with his left hand as he moved the Aurora closer. Though he could not see it, he knew the result: a small panel behind the cockpit retracted, exposing the refuelling receptacle. He then switched to the assigned tanker-craft radio channel.
“Jaguar we’re seeing your navigation lights. You’re 20 feet to the left and back 50 feet, adjust accordingly.” Due to the black paint of the Aurora, it was necessary to use navigation lights, otherwise it would be impossible to see in the pitch black of night.
“Understood zero-seven-five-niner, moving in.” His HUD, flush with information from the sensors of the Aurora, displayed small distance markers, informing him of the necessary changes he’d need. That was one ‘upgrade’ Harris didn’t think was worth the millions spent on development, if you asked him.
The counter on the left ticked down as he manouvered the Aurora in line with the boom, until it reached 0. Now, he focused on the number in the centre, throttling the aircraft in gentle increments, after having activated the limiter to prevent a minor change going too far.
“50. 40. 30. 20. 10. 5. Contact.” The boom connected with the receptacle perfectly, and fuel began pumping in to the Aurora’s huge tanks. They’d only been partially depleted by it’s flight north, but the plane wouldn’t receive another refuelling until it was back over the Atlantic when it’s mission was over, so it was best to be sure now.
The refuelling went by silently, the boom operator clearly not daring to ask any questions that might be above his pay grade. Eventually the boom retracted, and Harris simply passed a quick “thanks” before sealing the receptacle again.
“Harris, you think we should give them a nice surprise? Speed off right now?”
“No better place to throttle up. We’re over Greenland now, altitude 70,000 feet.
“Negative, we’re all good.”
“Great. All safeties offline, prepare for hypersonic speed.” Harris flipped the safety switches, designed to prevent over-excited pilots from putting the Aurora to it’s max without proper preparations. Then he accelerated.
The Aurora sped up extremely rapidly, reaching Mach 1, and then 2, at the kind of rate that required heavily classified technology to accomplish. It didn’t stop, of course, there were still much higher speeds to go for. The coating of the plane began to reach unimaginable temperatures, so hot Harris would be cooked alive in his cockpit without the cooling systems working. The skin, corrugated whilst on the ground, had long since expanded to create a perfectly smooth surface that cut through the air.
“Cleared Greenland now. We’re about 1.5 thousand miles out. All or nothing now.”
Harris kept the throttle down, Aurora now surpassing Mach 5. He made sure that the plane was climbing for it’s target altitude of 90,000 feet.
“Coming up on Mach 6 now!” In real terms, Mach 6 meant that they were gaining 1 and a bit miles for every single second of flight. They still had more than a thousand miles to go, but they were crossing that distance at speeds most civilians couldn’t dream of. “ETA 14 minutes until we reach the target area.”
Harris reached with his left hand for one of the food tubes contained inside a small box in the cockpit. He placed it into the feeding port in his helmet, not having checked what it was first, and was pleasantly surprised to find the taste of beef and gravy. He kept squeezing for a minute or so, until the tiny throngs of hunger in his stomach had gone away, before removing it from the port and placing it back in the box. A quick squirt of a gatorade drink tube, and Harris was feeling back to normal.
“We’re coming in over Glasgow now. ETA to target, under 2 minutes.” His radar display informed him of 13 separate interceptors in the skies along his path. The Aurora had limited stealth abilities despite it’s advanced design, relying instead on sheer speed and altitude to make it impossible to intercept.
“Correction, we were over Glasgow when I said that.” Harris never got tired of that particular joke.
Quick job. Fly over the target zone, take pictures, transmit them, go home. UNCO analysts would pour over the pictures and scans in the thousands, allowing them to decide whether to launch or cancel their planned meeting with Resistance fighters on the ground. Harris was just glad he wasn’t one of those down there, taking on an alien army with whatever they could scrape together.
Harris could feel his blood pumping. This was it. The moment of truth. Could the best of American engineering outdo the work of this alien power, the 'Hekatians' they were called?
The nearest alien interceptor began accelerating, in a bid to catch the Aurora. Simultaneously, he picked up 12 Hekatian anti-air-missiles. None of it mattered though. By the time the missile salvo had reached their maximum speed, the Aurora was half a dozen miles away, having already passed over the missiles. The interceptor did a better job of it, firing two of it’s own missiles, and attempting to target the higher and faster craft with it’s plasma weaponry. At this point, however, it was a doomed endeavour. While the interceptors had a top speed that beat the Aurora, their acceleration meant the Aurora would be over friendly territory before they could catch up.
Just keep the plane flying straight on and soon it would be time to finish up. The ground below sped by, as did the fighter craft vectored onto his position. 70 miles, 50 miles, 25 miles.
“Turning now!”
Harris performed a near impossibly tight turn, for a plane travelling at Mach 6. The Aurora hooked right, it’s vast array of classified equipment hard at work cataloguing everything on the ground. Harris noted the detection of a radio beacon, as he skilfully navigated along the coastline, so as to ensure near total coverage of the ground below.
Another warning popped up on Harris’ HUD, this time informing him of 3 more missiles being added to the collection. Still no worry, they were too far away to make the interception, and would end up just falling back to Earth. He just hoped no one would be hit by them.
“We’re getting everything, no troubles!” Cleaver was extremely happy as he operated the surveillance equipment. “
Harris grinned. It may not be as action packed as flying a fighter jet, but by god was it fun. Spurn Point rapidly approached, signalling the end of their recon mission.
The HUD informed him of a suddenly appearing threat from above, interceptors. They formed a cone around him, cutting off his planned escape route, and they’d been accelerating to catch him, narrowing his window for escape. Not good. He’d been too soon to grin, committed the mortal sin of feeling happy while flying.
“All data collected, we’re good to get out of here!”
“Roger, putting us out over the North Sea, we got 7 hostiles closing in!” Harris directed the plane eastwards, with another stunningly precise turn. He put as much thrust into the Aurora as possible in order to escape the ambush, a pair of missiles punching through the air he’d previously occupied just seconds earlier. One interceptor, diving to trade altitude for speed, flashed for just a fraction of a second in front of him. In that time, he could see it’s distinctive outline, the long and thin cockpit where it was believed the pilot laid down, it’s short wings that contained it’s micro-missiles, and it’s Harrier-like exhausts that made it a VTOL.
“They’re gaining pretty good, all at Mach 4 and increasing!” Damn, must have had a pretty good start.
“I’m aware Jack, give me a minute to think of something!” In a pure race like this, he wouldn’t be able to manage it, not with them having started off near-hypersonic. They could make Mach 7, and would make it before he reached the safety of the European coastline, so Harris would have to hope to god that UNCO had fighters this far out.
With the quick precision only possible through a decade of training, Harris reached for the emergency transmitter, activating it. If something Human was out here, he’d be able to get their support. Then, mentally, he kicked himself. He was at 90,000 feet, very little could aid him up here.
“I’m gonna put her in a dive to 30,000 feet, brace yourself!” This was all the warning he gave Cleaver, before the Aurora’s nose was pointed near-vertical, diving straight at the North Sea.
The HUD’s altimeter flashed and disappeared, sensor inputs overwhelmed by the sheer speed at which the dive was occurring. Harris’s radar showed the interceptors still following, and worse, still gaining. Reflexively, he levelled the Aurora, which had achieved something close to Mach 6.5 in it’s dive, managing to bring it in at 27,000 feet above sea level.
A new contact appeared on his radar, then another, and finally two more, coming from the southeast, at a speed of Mach 3. They rushed through the night sky, towards the speeding alien fighters, which were now firing their missiles. Harris released his flare and decoy package, misdirecting them and granting him a precious few more seconds.
His question as to the identity of the contact was rapidly answered, as the first disappeared in front of the lead interceptor, knocking it’s radar contact offline. The second unidentified similarly downed another interceptor. Clearly, a Human SAM battery had just blown 2 of the interceptors to pieces, although sadly the 3rd and 4th had missed their targets.
Harris couldn’t stop to consider this, instead having to keep the speed up as he closed upon the coastline of the Netherlands. The next thing he noted was the sudden appearance of 8 small missiles, seemingly from mid air, just a few miles away from him.
“Fox two, fox two!” Captain Reed pulled the nose of his F-22 straight up, as he participated in the ritual chant of any good fighter pilot. Behind him, the rest of his flight similarly climbed and chanted, preparing to pounce on any interceptors that survived the swarm of Sidewinders bearing down upon them.
The Hekatians deployed countermeasures and attempted to break off, all but one of them failing to do so, having been completely ambushed. 2 missiles per target tore each of the unlucky interceptors to shreds, the remnants of the craft spiralling down into the sea.
“Splash three!” The cry came from Reed’s wingman, Barclay.
“Hostiles appear to be heading our way, slowed to mach 3!” Reed was counting on the F-22’s latest stealth upgrades to provide the edge. They couldn’t outmanoeuvre or chase the twin targets, so they’d have to ambush them as they screamed past.
Sure enough, the targets didn’t change their altitude, instead charging in at full speed to where their sensors had told them the missiles had originated from. Then, the 4 F-22’s dived from above, each unleashing two of their AMRAAM missiles upon the pair. This time, they successfully downed another, but it’s compatriot used a lifetime’s worth of luck and dodged the missiles sent it’s way.
“Splash another!
The last interceptor seemed to have some sort of a death wish, turning almost on the spot to engage the F-22’s bearing down upon it. It fired it’s twin guns, plasma lances knifing through the air towards Barclay’s fighter.
Reed thumbed the control for his 20mm, causing the covering to retract, exposing it’s muzzle to the night sky. He then fired a 3 round burst, and another, and another, keeping going until he had pumped 60 SAPHEI rounds into the target. Explosions rippled across the armour, puncturing it’s wings. Reed then fired another pair of AMRAAMs, which were now just barely above their minimum engagement range. At this range, it was completely impossible to dodge, and as a result the interceptor was vapourised by the blasts.
“Good kill, good kill!” Barclay’s words echoed over the radio as the debris rocketed towards the ground.
“Well done Lt Colonel, UNCO got all the pictures they wanted. You just made a lot of analysts very happy with your work.” Harris returned the salute given to him by Brigadier General Moore, as the Aurora was wheeled back into the special hangar it was normally imprisoned in. Cleaver had gone to the barracks immediately after landing at Groom Lake, mumbling something about his “need to change, now”.
“Thank you sir. Was a bit hairier than I’d expected it to be.”
“Indeed. We’re looking into how they pulled that ambush off now. If it’s any consolation, some F-22s got the buggers after you got out.”
“That’s good to hear sir. Send my thanks to them and the Patriot crew, they got two by my count.”
“Ah, well, those were Russians there, with S-400s, not Patriots. Those would have been Su-57’s covering your backside, as well, but the F-22s got there first.”
“Give them my thanks all the same, even if you have to use a translator, sir. If I can ask a question: will I be flying again?”
“Andrew, don’t you worry, we’re going to find you so much work in this war. If we couldn’t kill you this time, we’ll keep going.”
submitted by GIJoeVibin to HFY [link] [comments]


2020.07.12 23:39 mrmanager237 I am once again asking for your financial support: how Argentina botched its coronavirus response

I am once again asking for your financial support: how Argentina botched its coronavirus response
After writing a post on the topic in the early days of the coronavirus outbreak, I have decided to rdo a part two about the consequences of the uber strict lockdown and future consequences.

Coronavirus containment

So Argentina has, by many indications, one of the world’s strictest social distancing schemes: people have been under stay at home orders for over 100 days, all forms of travel are heavily restricted, if not banned outright, and wearing face masks outside the house is mandatory. Anecdotally, I have only left the house seven or eight times in over three months, longer than the time I had a wound in my foot and couldn’t leave.
Have these measures been successful? Maybe. The country has had about 70 thousand cases (daily graph here) of coronavirus and about 2000 deaths. The vast majority of cases are concentrated in just two provinces: the City and Province of Buenos Aires, which make up about 45% of the population. So far, the city had partially relaxed some of its measures in May, including allowing for daily walks and letting certain shops and restaurants to open under strict conditions; this coincided with a big jump in cases (mostly due to the authorities ignoring their own forecasts about the peak of infections happening by the end of May and early June), so the measures were rolled back. The lockdown has been extended and toughened, for this reason, until the second week of July.
Somewhat worryingly, 45% of tests come back positive, according to Our World in Data (aka neoliberalism dot com), which is probably indicative of severe undertesting, since the country’s tracking and tracing system is very recent and not as efficient as would be desirable.
The lockdown, and the government, have so far enjoyed widespread support, and social distancing measures have generally been sustained across party lines - most divisions appear regarding how to respond to the economic consequences. Despite support for the President having reached nearly 95% in the early days of the quarantine, there are signs that public opinion is slowly turning - extending a stringent lockdown only gets a small majority according to some polls, rather than near-unanimous consensus as it used to. This has mostly been due to exhaustion and to the economic fallout, which will be explained shortly.
This exhaustion also has an unseemly underbelly: the economy is devastated, and the poorest people in the country can no longer afford to stay at home and not work, under insufficient government aid and mounting debts.

Income and labor

For the last decade, both economic growth and the labor market have remained stagnant, while real wages remained basically constant, all three of which stedily and slowly deteriorated since the recession started in 2018 . This dynamic obviously worsened this year, although the data is still out; wages are growing below inflation (after a small recovery), and both activity and employment are still obviously going to fall, as even the most optimistic bounce predictions for May and June would still be a solid 20 points below 2019 and 15 below February.
https://preview.redd.it/o92ixvfopha51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b0ac45c524671ceda63a2a9e0417178a2e5a4e2
So far, the coronavirus pandemic has not been good for personal finances, as might be expected. During the first quarter, the unemployment rate was already 10.4%; employment fell 0.5% every month since March (-3% throughout the year and -1.5% during the lockdown), and registered private sector payrolls fell behind 6 million for the first time in over a decade: 230 thousand people lost their jobs in April alone, and another 90 did in March. The bulk of these job losses seem to have come from the private sector (69%), and 26% from self-employed workers (public sector employment increased 0.4%, meanwhile). Some losses are due to seasonal differences in agriculture, fishing, and other resource-focused activities; nonetheless, almost all sectors of the economy have lost jobs.
A recent UCA report indicated that up to 860 thousand people may have lost their jobs during the lockdown (up to May, at least), and that 70% of those (602 thousand) were unregistered workers (who only make up 35% of the total workforce). That nearly 900k figure points to, if accurate, at least a 4% hike in unemployment during the second quarter alone. The government tried to prevent job losses by banning firing people and by providing assistance for wages; this has the rather unfortunate effect of only helping registered workers (about 50% of the workforce) while doing barely anything for self-standing workers (15%) or informal workers- who also have much lower incomes.
UCA also has put out one of their hard to parse poverty estimates (extremely petty critique here), at 45% (or 10 points higher than currently), and some of the country’s most respected experts claim it’s already gone over 40% for sure - for example, during May the poverty rate could be estimated at about 39.8%, using income distribution data and the official poverty line. This would be the highest level since 2007 (or 2003,poverty data is squirrely), and the biggest jump since both the 1989 hyperinflation and the 2001 collapse (more information here).
As for wages, 19.8% of workers in the Buenos Aires metro area had no income to speak of, and 44.2% had lower wages; 39.3% of workers aren’t working or were suspended, and 8.2% lost their job altogether. A recent survey points to 80% of the population having lost income during the pandemic; a later study points to 45% having done so afterward, and even more recent studies point to 53% of the population having endured "significant" income losses. Following official data, real wages have decreased for three consecutive months in May: they stagnated last year,and were growing above inflation until March ; then, they fell well behind (0.1% in wages vs 1.5% inflation) in May. Part of this was intentional: to prevent job losses, the largest unions and the biggest corporations agreed to a 25% pay cut for workers who weren’t going to work; still, this doesn’t bode well for the labor market as a whole. Nevertheless, this won’t nearly be enough even before 2020, income was already 20% lower than in 2018, and a similar 18% drop is estimated for GDP per capita after 2020. During the lockdown, 70% of the population made less than 20 thousand pesos (about 200 dollars) a month while income inequality skyrocketed.
Looking at the job market as a whole, it doesn’t get much better: a full third of companies are planning on laying off some employees after it is allowed, 70% are unsure about whether or not they will be able to afford any pay raises during the second semester, and 64% of workers are afraid of losing their job in 2020 - with 51% saying that they owuld be laid off if their employer was seriously affected by the pandemic.
Even if the labor market fully recovers, which it is probably not going to, there’s still the issue of debt: almost 90% of people fell behind on payments in May, and 86% in June especially utilities and rent (since evictions were also banned). This means that even if the job market and the economy recover, people are bound to not spend their money on consumption to boost the economy anyways - and a good signal to see how expensive stimulus might be is that two thirds of adults are already receiving money from the government.

Economic activity and real output

Economic activity will definitely take a beating in 2020. GDP had already gone down 5.4% in the first quarter of 2020 (that is, before any type of lockdown) and looking forward it doesn’t get pretty: there was a 10% annual drop in March and a 25% drop in April, leading to the same level of output as in 2004:
Economic activity, 1993-2020
The chart actually points to something interesting - since 2011, the country has basically remained stagnant, growing about 1% until 2017 and then de-growing 0.2% throughout the decade. Stagflation, the combination of no growth and high inflation, has obviously weakened the country's ability to recover - and some even venture to say GDP might not exhibit any genuine growth until 2023, since April saw the largest drop in activity recorded anywhere in the last 120 years.
Only 28% of companies have been fully active during the lockdown: a quarter has had trouble paying salaries, 40% couldn’t pay suppliers or utilities, and two thirds have fallen behind on their taxes; 43% expect to lay off workers, and 88% expect to see profits fall. This points into a larger trends: businesses don’t expect to do well at all in this environment. Just going back to the February status quo is expected to take between half the year and 18 months, with a full quarter of companies believing it will take at least two years to recover. 65% of companies expect to be doing worse off in the third quarter than they were, with significant concerns over actually being able to pay off salaries. And some reports estimate that 30 thousand companies will go out of business in 2020, with chances of a recovery (per the latest Leading Index report) put at a meager 4%. Since March, in fact, 19 thousand companies have gone out of business, with about 290 thousand workers being affected in some shape.

The largest sectors in the economy

The activities that have seen the largest losses account for a large share of employment, and over 900 thousand have already been laid off. On a sector-by-sector basis, activities responsible for 70% of employment collapsed by almost 40% in March alone. Industry and commerce in particular have been hit particularly hard, with revenues (according to said report) plummeting by 50%, in sectors employing over a million people each (or, put together, about 35% of the entire workforce).
In fact, the most heavily affected sectors were construction and hotels and restaurants (the latter, for obvious reasons); the two largest sectors, retail and industry, have also taken a beating in 2020. So I’ll focus on those sectors (retail, industry, and construction) one by one, since after all, they account for about 40% of both GDP and employment; another 10% goes to farming, which will be examined more closely as it relates to food prices (obviously relevant to inflation), and exports.
Let’s start with industry. According to government data, industrial production plummeted by -27% in May and -33% in April, with the biggest drops in cars (-100 in April, since none were produced and -85% in May), steel (-72% and -56%), metals (-65% and -44%), textiles (-60% and -34%), and, with a huge chasm, chemicals (-11% in both months ) and food (-1% and -5%). Since these industries account for a majority of output in the sector, it helps paint the dire portrait it is going through right now: two thirds of factories could not operate normally in April and half in May, with a breakdown by sector that points to the trends previously exhibited. A recent report by the Industrial Union shows that production has decreased by 30% in April (and 17% compared to March), exports have plummeted by 58%, and employment has decreased by 2.4% (or about 40 thousand jobs lost in the past 12 months, with a tenth of that in April alone). Other estimates for industrial output, by FIEL (a well regarded think tank) has industrial output continuing to decrease in May, with an 18% drop (compared to -13% in April and -8% in March) - and with consumption goods staying strong (5% growth in durable goods and 10% in non durables) compared to cratering industrial input production (-13% in parts and -57% in capital goods); as a result, consumption goods have fared relatively well, recovering quickly and even thriving, but industrial inputs like parts and capital goods have plummeted by at least 20% in all three months. Nearly 60% of industrial capacity was idle in April, and that number soars to over 80% for steel and metals, and over 90% for textiles and cars - but food and chemicals still held strong. 80% of industrial companies expect layoffs, although they also expect a small bounce in activity moving forward.
Looking at the big sectors, it doesn’t bode too well either for the biggest parts of industry either. Car production was literally 0 in April, and fell by 47% in June, 84% in May, and 20% in March. Car sales also plummeted, falling by 45%, 74%, and 19% respectively (sales may have bounced 2% back in June, but they are still far behind 2018 or 2017 levels). Steel production fell by 30% in June, 50%the previous two months in a row, and 32% in March; and metal production plummeted by 23% in March, 50% in April, and 37% in May.
Industrial production, base 2016, and idle capacity (right axis)
Regarding construction, it’s in an even worse position. Construction activity plunged by 45% in May, 75% in April, and 45% in March. Home sales have plummeted, from over a thousand in March to just 7 in April and 700 in May; the supply of homes to rent is going down, while demand is going up, and a new rent control bill could, paradoxically, raise rents by up to 20% and already has increased them by 4% (double the monthly inflation rate) in June in anticipation; rent control measures will simultaneously reduce demand because of rent increases (“real” rent went down in 2019, as housing costs increase by only 33% compared to 55% annual inflation), and supply by creating enough restrictions to contracts. Employment in March has gone down a third in April, between 2019 and 2020, which means 65 thousand construction workers lost their job in 2020 so far (and that’s only counting registered workers) - and 57 thousand of them did so in March and April alone. For an indication of how things might move in May, both sales of construction materials and cement shipments fell 33%, although they both exhibited a significant recovery regarding April.
90% of construction companies have had their revenue reduced by at least 20%, and almost a third did not have any revenue, 86% rate the lockdown as (very) negative. It also has negatively impacted 94% of realtors, 90% of builders, 84% of architects, and 89% of developers.
Construction activity indicators, base 2012
Both construction companies and industries expect the third quarter to be a slight improvement, but 2020 would still be the worst year on record for both, with widespread closures and massive employment losses.
Retail sales have also been affected in extremely negative ways: as previously noted, up to 100 thousand stores may close this year, and 17 thousand workers have already been laid off. According to sectoral data, retail sales were 35% lower than in 2019 in May, and 50% lower in both March, April, and May - resulting in their lowest levels in 11 years. Supermarket sales stayed above water in March and April, mostly boosted by a big increase in February and March - but sales still crashed 14% in April. Shopping centers suffered greatly, with sales dropping 50% in March and 97% in April - and the sector estimates that 15% of all stores in shopping centers have already closed, and that 41% of stores in smaller malls may close this year.And speaking of stores, anywhere up to a 100 thousand of them may close during 2020 - so far, 24 thousand have. VAT revenue, considered a general indicator of how consumption is doing, has stayed below inflation for five months in a row, having accumulated an 11% reduction since February and dropping nearly 40% in real terms (adjusted for inflation, which is in the 45% range) for four consecutive months. Consumer confidence, in general, has deteriorated significantly since the pandemic outbreak began (with a small bounce in June), although trust in the government has exhibited the opposite behavior.

Inflation

https://preview.redd.it/nqg90yggiha51.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=7add2c22d909286ae1663763012c5bd1871d0bed
Argentina has had, for the longest time, an inflation problem. I don’t want to get too tangled up in it, but it probably has three main causes: the government, for a variety of reasons, has consistently spent more than it can possibly raise, therefore resorting to seigniorage systematically (i.e. printing money, MMT style); secondly, a cluster of institutional and historical factors make saving and holding pesos risky and unreliable; thirdly, and as a consequence, the country has an incredibly high demand of US dollars. This results in a perverse dynamic where monetary expansions that aren’t coupled with high interest rates (or just positive; the country has also had a tendency of having a negative real interest rate) end up draining the Central Bank’s reserves (under a fixed peg) or devaluing the currency (under extremely rare floating regimes); as a result, the exchange rate has an incredible amount of power in controlling the inflation rate.
After big devaluations in 2018 and 2019, the US dollar has been kept under control by increasingly stricter currency controls; at the same time, the Central Bank’s reserves have dwindled, from their highest levels in decades in 2018 to about a quarter of that now. The other side of this policy is that the real exchange rate, especially compared to leading trading partners like Brazil and Chile, has suffered and recent boosts to competitivity that improved the trade balance are slowly withering away (more on that later).
The other factor that has contained inflation is the quarantine: the demand of local currency is much higher because people are holding more pesos to remain liquid in times of great uncertainty, while the velocity of spending has dwindled due to, you know, nobody being able to leave the house. This, added to widespread price controls and utility freezes (to protect consumers), have kept price increases at a breezy 1-2% a month until restrictions are lifted.
The real question is: is this actual disinflation, or has inflation been repressed? Dynamics haven’t actually changed, and as soon as the lockdown is over, inflation will “reheat” as every single one of the measures that contained it is lifted or proven unsustainable.
The price controls, especially on food, have started taking their toll on producers, as costs have increased and many hadn't increased their prices since January to boost sales in the summer ;though the government has recently softened the price caps, a quarantine that is sustained for much longer could risk food shortages. Utility freezes are a particularly thorny issue, since hikes are massively unpopular but the costs start piling up: in 2015 they accounted for three quarters of a 6.6% deficit, and since the exchange rate is lagging, soon the oil sector will lose profitability and imports will soar, worsening the trade balance significantly.
https://preview.redd.it/dgpn42cliha51.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=49a95a41a019193388abe3c3370bbcdc06ca72de
The second big issue is the currency market: exchange controls have made the US dollar “cheaper”, and the proliferation of parallel and black market rates has exploded the gap between the two (the “FX gap”) to the point where it was over 80%. This created incentives to buy US dollars for purely speculative reasons, even in the official market: the number of currency buyers doubled in May (from 1.2 to 2 and a half million), and in March and April it was still 50% higher than in the summer - the average purchase was USD 190, ten bucks below the maximum allowed amount (to a total of 500 million dollars form Central Bank reserves). A consquence is that a low real exchange rate both increases imports and reduces exports; this means that a strategy to protect the local currency will ultimately weaken it by draining Central Bank reserves (even with no domestic purchases) and hastening a devaluation.
Seignorage as a percentage of GDP (I didn't make this one)
The final factor to keep in mind is monetary emission. The government has, in 2020, nearly doubled the monetary base, from 1.3 to 2 trillion pesos; most of this has occurred during the lockdown, resulting in an annual growth of 77%. So far the money didn't cause any trouble; as soon as restructuins end, and considering the real interest rate is in the double digit negatives, the excess cash could simply go into the currency market until the Central Bank has no other resort than to devalue the peso. This has resulted in both grave concerns from economists and the government already promising it will “vacuum” these pesos and consider raising interest rates and reducing credit, which would have a negative impact on economic activity.
Repressed inflation is already estimated at 20%, and as soon as the quarantine ends the government will have to handle some incredibly tricky tradeoffs between inflation, output, and competitivity. A likely case is a big shock to inflation because the government would not simply allow a prolonged recession (which is already on track to be the worst in the country's history). Currently, 2020 could reach a level well below 40%, with the nasty side effects being punted off into 2021 if the quarantine drags on long enough. So far wages have behaved properly (as mentioned, real salaries have decreased in line with wage-cutting agreements by the unions) but a high inflation, deep recession scenario would also restart struggles between unions and business leaders regarding price and wage levels - potentially, added to a big devaluation, spiraling the country’s price level out of control, but not into hyperinflationary territory.

Fiscal policy

https://preview.redd.it/r5mwm5uwiha51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d1926bc9a66ec480e40a452486c37a539e689f6
During the quarantine, spending has increased and revenue has plummeted as a result of lower economic activity, so 2020 is on track tohave the largest primary deficit since the 14% recorded in 1975 - anywhere from 5.5% to 8% of GDP, defined mostly by how long the quarantine (and the corresponding stimulus) drags on.
Compared to last year, the deficit is ten times higher, having reached 260 billion, and overall spending has doubled to 597 billion. This has also meant that, as previously mentioned, the Central Bank has printed a trillion pesos so far this year to finance government sending, and the debt market has dried up. This has resulted in the Central Bank handing out 8% of GDP in monetary emission to the Treasury - which has been described as a ticking time bomb for inflation by most serious economists. Currently half of all spending is financed by printing money, which means the government will have a horrific choice once the quarantine ends: either cut back on spending to reduce its reliance on the money machine, or basically allow inflation to accelerate - and both options could nip any recovery in the bud.
Compared to most other countries, the fiscal stimulus package has been small: only 5% of GDP has been dedicated to counteracting the effects of the pandemic, consisting on 2.7% of fiscal aid and 2.3% of low interest credits to allow businesses and self-employed workers to pay off salaries and other expenses. This stimulus package has a vital flaw at its core: it doesn’t reach the right people, regardless of size. Currently, two main facilities exist: a very means-tested program for the government to cover up to half of an employees’ salary and a 10 thousand lump sum payment per household in which no adult is a registered worker. The obvious flaw is that this only covers the absolute poorest people and registered private sector employees, but nobody else - with a big gap that masks a variety of precarious economic situations that are not being addressed. Credit to firms, on the other hand, has been criticised by “friendly” voices such as ECLAC for being too small.
Why is the government only funding itself through the money printer, when most of its neighbours have taken advantage of low international rates to fund more generous packages through debt? Due to a high debt burden, the country has decided to restructure its sovereign debt (largely in US dollars) with creditors. The government’s plans pointed to wrapping up the issue by April; instead, after a disastrous first offer to creditors, negotiations dragged out for three months as the government unveiled bad faith proposals that under 40% of bondholders accepted, since they implied cuts of over 50% to interest payments. Finally, the country caved and unveiled a final (this time apparently for real) offer, which only reduces payments by 47%, saving the country thirty billion dollars (or around two billion per year for 15 years) and, contrary to the government’s own intent, payments start in February of next year rather than in 2023.
A worrying aspect is that and that the government played hardball for two months over an amount under 6 billion dollars - spread out over a decade and a half. The biggest concern right now isn’t that the country will default (it already technically has, since the April deadline coincided with the maturity of a bond that had to be paid) but rather how credible the restructuring offer is, especially on terms of future fiscal responsibility: creditors are wary that, as has happened three times already, if the current President doesn’t start making part of the effort to pay , then nobody ever will - leading to a fourth debt restructuring in 20 years.

International trade

2020 will have the largest trade surplus in 110 years, surpassing 20 billion dollars. This means that the Central Bank will increase its reserves, as exporters are legally bound to sell their hard currency (and they actually pay hefty export taxes, so the Bank makes a profit buying the dollars).
https://preview.redd.it/q8i5kctziha51.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cb3ce40fc61e1e70fe1c157703104b638e04ebe
The problem with this is where this surplus comes from: for the last 2 years, imports have fallen at a breakneck pace, while exports basically stayed at the same level. This follows a longstanding pattern: when the country grows, imports (for capital goods and especially parts and inputs) grow too, and faster; if you add in a lagging exchange rate and fuel subsidies (which result in higher fuel consumption, lower local production, and higher fuel imports all at once), you can very quickly see a trade deficit coming. A second aspect is clearly that a lower real exchange rate reduces incentives to export, so the trade balance also worsens that way. If you break up exports and imports on quantity and price, you can see a worrying trend: the amount of imported goods decreased due to the recession, but the quantity of exports basically plateaued and then dropped because of lower output in the past three months.
The big risk moving forward is that, once the country starts recovering, a non-real trade surplus will vanish as imported parts pick up; there’s also the fact that two thirds of exports are industrial goods (about half of that agricultural products, mostly soy and corn derivatives, and half manufactured goods, led by chemicals and metals) and that commodity prices are, at best, not increasing, and at worst, collapsing.
Exports and imports (left axis, in millions of USD) and real exchange rate (base 2001, right axis)
The goose with the golden eggs is the agricultural sector, considering 55% of exports are either commodities or industrialized products; the problem is that high export taxes and an uncompetitive exchange rate (soy exporters got paid about 45 pesos per dollar, compared to an official rate of 70 and a black market rate of 120) have led everyone to put off sales, which have stagnated or even decreased in a similar, or even larger, harvest, to wait out the government until lack of reserves forces a devaluation.
The fact that many of the country's trading partners in the region, especially Brazil, have sharply devalued their currencies and we have not is also cause for concern: as the real exchange rate worsens from domestic appreciation, it also loses its power if our trading partners are also more competitive.

Conclusion: an L shaped recovery

So far, the picture I’ve painted seems bleak. A stagnant economy who’s had the same GDP for an entire decade, while inflation slowly and steadily picks up, has to confront a massive economic shock. The 2018-2020 (at least) recession seems to be the longest one on record in the country’s history, going on for 10 quarters strong, and of an unprecedented intensity: the country seems to be on track for its largest ever drop in GDP, since the IMF expects a 9.9% contraction, the World Bank and the OECD about 8% each, and local economists predict a recession of 11.6%.
GDP, in billions of pesos, and annual economic growth
The problem is not so much the recession, which is kind of priced in at this point, but the recovery: the government is currently modelling its efforts on the 2003 program, where a vibrant external sector, high spending, and a primary surplus created by a mix of export taxes and frozen pension spending would result in a boom and “Chinese rates” of growth peaking at the double digits. This vision has a number of problems that make it unrealistic: for once, inflation wasn't a problem back then, since it had been around 1% with the occasional deflation for a decade. The public sector also had half the size it currently does (23% of GDP vs 42%) and a balanced budget rather than the largest deficit in 40 years. The international panorama was also much better for export-led growth.
As previously stated, the fundamentals are also stacked any recovery achieved through consumption and government spending: the Treasury is all but bankrupt, and it has to actually renegotiate its sizeable debts with the IMF and the Paris Club as well; high debt means stimulus checks are going straight to landlords and utility companies for a while. The painful dynamics of inflation mean that seigniorage to fund spending is a non starter, and the Central Bank doesn’t have the firepower to sit on the exchange rate for another full year.
The likeliest scenario is more of the same: tepid growth only made possible with a frozen dollar and an overstretched state, while no real growth occurs and there is only a series of equally sized contractions and recoveries that are perfectly timed so the good parts are on election years.
If the country is to succeed, it will actually be forced to be sensible for once: sustainable fiscal policy, focused on small deficits or balanced budgets, and achieved through changes in the tax code and another reform to the massive pension system. The next logical step would labor reform, by allowing for simplified processes of hiring and firing and by creating incentives for employers to actually register their “illegal” workers. Reforming the external sector by keeping it competitive, and without preventing local companies from importing basic inputs they need is also a must to preserve Central Bank reserves and allow the government to pay off its debts.
Reasonable fiscal policy isn’t so much a matter of “running the government like a company” or “tightening the belt”: long term, only weaning the Treasury off the money printers and creating an actual local market for investment, debt, and bonds will stop prices from getting out of control.
submitted by mrmanager237 to neoliberal [link] [comments]


2020.07.04 12:08 AD-LB Android R might eventually cause a lot of harm for backup and file-manager apps on rooted devices: can't read from /data/data

Note: eventually, this is false alarm, as it's still possible. However, the developers need to change their code to still make it possible.
----
Original post:
Yes, that's right. I've tested it this week (link here and here, video to prove it here), and on a rooted device, if the app targets Android API 30, it can't see anything that's inside the /data/data/ folder.
The app Mixplorer, for example, can't reach it. If you try (and again, using root, of course), this is what you will get:
https://i.imgur.com/KZBjkXA.png
So, if an app targets API 30 (and eventually Google forces all apps on the Play Store to do so), your favorite backup apps and file manager apps won't be able to read from this folder, hence you won't be able to backup apps anymore and won't be able to do look into those folders.
If the app targets API 29 or below, however, you can get access to this folder, for some reason.
Hopefully this is a bug, because the whole point of rooting is to be able to reach all files on the file system.
That's why I wrote about this to Google, here and also asked here on reddit about this.
That's in addition to a weird behavior I've noticed on my app, which might have existed on Android 10 too, that if I remove a system app (using root or adb), after a restart it comes back. This I've written here and here, and requested to still be able to do it here.
Each time Google puts a new restriction, I see people say : "That's for the common user anyway. Power users who have root will have what they wanted".
Well now it got for rooted devices too. You won't be able to backup apps (at least not right on the device) and you won't be able to uninstall system apps (or at least not on some stock ROM, such as of Google).
In the beginning of Android, each version I was excited "What will they come up next? Which features will be added?" . Over the past recent versions, it's the opposite: "What will the ruin/restrict next?". :(
BTW, If you know of an alternative way (in code) to reach the /data/data/ folder and/or uninstall system apps for reach, please let me know.
------
TLDR : If you care about this, please consider starring/upvoting :
- Being able to access /data/data/ folder using root : https://issuetracker.google.com/issues/160395302
- Question to Google on reddit, about reaching /data/data/ : https://www.reddit.com/androiddev/comments/hk3hrq/were_on_the_android_engineering_team_ask_us/fwqxb4b/
- Being able to remove system apps that can be disabled anyway, at least via adb/root : https://issuetracker.google.com/issues/160399710
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EDIT: OK was told that it should probably be possible. Not sure how exactly. As for system apps removal, this is possible via Magisk modules. Not sure if possible without them.
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EDIT: seems I was told the answer that it's actually possible, but needs an extra step which apps should perform before. If using topjohnwu's "libsu" library, you just need to set the flag "FLAG_MOUNT_MASTER". For example, to get the list of the files on "/data/data", you can do as such:
Shell.Config.setFlags(Shell.FLAG_MOUNT_MASTER) val result = Shell.su("ls -l \"/data/data/\"").exec().out 
Not sure how to do it without the library, but seeing that it's indeed possible, I'm happy :)
App developers such as the one of Mixplorer should just add this flag before starting to do anything using root.
submitted by AD-LB to androidapps [link] [comments]


2020.06.29 01:41 diyexageh Banca internacional #04 PT MT – Banca e inversión, mitigando PT withholding tax.

Este contenido fue publicado originalmente el 19/08/2019 - Aca
Posts anteriores de la serie

Background


Los que siguen los posts de -Banca Internacional- y los freelancers IT con los que estuve charlando en /Merval estaban esperando otro post con información con respecto a “Export de servicios, incorporación, DTAs y residencia fiscal.”. Ese post está al 90% sin embargo visto y considerando la situación por la que paso Argentina post elecciones primarias y las reacciones de pánico de inversores vía este medio me parece más relevante ofrecerles información que les proporcione soluciones a problemas del ahora.


Introducción


La banca internacional no viene libre de problemas para el residente fiscal de la República Argentina ya que se tributa en su ingreso mundial y se deben declarar cuentas en el extranjero a la AFIP. A contrariedad de lo que quieren hacer creer a la gente, la sola posesión/operación de cuentas domiciliadas en el extranjero no es ilegal. Ilegal es la evasión fiscal. El problema se genera cuando las jurisdicciones donde el cliente se bancariza y existe algún impuesto sobre depósitos o dividendos y surge la doble tributación. Con el fin de este inconveniente existen los Double Taxation Agreement/Treaties (DTA/DTT) o Tratado de Doble Imposición en español.

Los que invierten o están bancarizados en Estados Unidos tienen claro que entre EEUU y Argentina no hay tax treaties, así que tienen deducciones de 30% (withholding tax). Este framework no es exclusivo de EEUU, en otros países como los de la Unión Europea es común y las tasas varían entre si, inclusive dentro del mismo país pueden ser diferentes. Un buen ejemplo de esto es Portugal, país que va a ser centro del presente artículo.


Portugal (on-shore) impone un withholding tax del 28%, mínimamente por debajo del impuesto por EEUU. Sin embargo Madeira (Portugal off-shore) impone un 22%.


¿Podemos abrir una cuenta en un banco domiciliado en Madeira y hacer uso del descuento en la tasa de 6%? Si, podemos, pero no es lo que vamos a hacer ya que esto requiere un time frame superior. Para bancarizarnos en Madeira necesitamos documentos apostillados y en algunos casos visitas personales , couriers.... Quizás en este momento ese 6.5% no amerite los requerimientos cuando podemos mitigar el 28% en su totalidad.


Argentina está pasando por una situación difícil de entender para quien no haya vivido una experiencia similar en primera persona. Los ahorristas quieren mover sus capitales lo antes posible y evitar así seguir perdiendo poder adquisitivo, poder acceder a una banca que ofrezca mejores servicios y a mejor costo. Poder mover fondos sin tener que justificar destino y en lo posible invertir como para tener retorno.


Regulación


Como aprendimos anteriormente Portugal impone un withholding tax de 28% en intereses. Visto que residentes fiscales en Argentina tienen que tributar sobre su ingreso mundial, sería de importancia intentar evitar la doble imposición. Ya que no existe DTA/DTT entre Argentina y Portugal hay que mitigarlo de otra manera. Evitando invertir en Portugal e invertir en una jurisdicción dentro del Area Economica Europea y preferentemente área SEPA donde los intereses se paguen net/gross.

Enter Malta. Malta es considerado un centro financiero semi-shore (como Singapur, Hong Kong, UAE, Bahrain). Si no fuese tan engorroso bancarizarse en Malta evitaríamos Portugal.


Entonces el fin de nuestro esquema es Banca en Portugal y Banca de inversión/depósitos/plazo fijos en Malta. Preferentemente multi currency y con acceso a transferencias sin costos SEPA para minimizar el costo de capital y mantenimiento. La razón por la cual necesitamos la banca en una jurisdicción on-shore en la Union Europea es porque para poder acceder a servicios de inversión/plazo fijos en (algunos) proveedores Malteses, es un requerimiento “una cuenta a nombre del inversor en una institución de crédito de la Union Europea”. Cuentas en Channel Islands/Jersey/Isle of Man no son válidas. Irónicamente cuentas de ciertos bancos en Kuwait si (más de esto después).


De esta manera la institución de Malta puede remitir los intereses/depositos vía SEPA sin costo, a la institución en Portugal donde el usuario puede hacer uso del capital vía tarjetas de débito, otras transferencias SEPA a un Exchange de Cryptocurrencies, o así mismo transferir dichos fondos vía un servicio de pagos tipo TransferWise a Argentina o cualquier otra jurisdicción.


Modus operandi

El proceso es simple, para hacer uso de este esquema, como explique con anterioridad, es necesario iniciar dos relaciones bancarias. Una en Portugal (retail) y otra en Malta (inversión).


Debajo esta la lista de los bancos Portugueses que operan con no residentes pero que además hacen el on-boarding del cliente de manera digital. Aspecto clave de nuestro esquema. Funciona con otros bancos también, esto esta resumido a los servicios que entre otras cosas, aceptan argentinos, on-barding remoto y que probé personalmente, con la intención de escribir este articulo.


Una vez abierta esta cuenta, con nuestro IBAN Portugués a mano, podemos proceder al registro de la cuenta de inversión en Malta, La cual requiere de un poco más de trabajo manual. Es un 70% digital y un 30% analógico pero también se puede hacer a distancia.


Por una cuestión de simplicidad voy a incluir dos bancos en Portugal y dos instituciones del mismo grupo inversor en Malta. Se puede abrir una cuenta bancaria a distancia también pero hay que tener más paciencia/tiempo ya que requiere papeleo.


Instituciones de interés


BANCO ATLÂNTICO EUROPA S.A. - Portugal
https://www.atlantico.eu
Atlantico Europa es un banco con sede central en Lisboa y regulado por el Banco central de Portugal bajo licencia #189 (https://www.bportugal.pt/en/entidadeautorizada/banco-atlantico-europa-sa), Comisión de Mercado de Activos (SEC Portugues licencia #343) y Banco central Europeo (ECB). En Europa no es un banco de gran antigüedad, la subsidiaria Europea data del 2009 y posee Sucursales en Portugal y Namibia y Angola. Similar al Caso de Standard bank en Jersey. El banco trabaja con residentes y no residentes retail, privado y corporate.
CRS: Si, compliant.
Withholding tax: 28%, Puede reducirse vía DTA.
Deposito mínimo: 0 EUR.
Deposito mínimo requerido para apertura: 250 EUR
Balance mínimo: 0 EUR.
Costo Mensual: 0 EUR.
Underfunding: 0 EUR.
Divisas: EUR, CHF, GBP, USD.
Tarjetas de débito: Si, en EUR.
Tarjetas de crédito: Si, en EUR.
No residentes: Si.
Divisas exóticas: No.
Seguro de depósitos: Si, ECB standard. EUR 100.000 x cliente x banco. https://www.fgd.pt/sistema-europeu-de-garantia-de-depositos
Inversiones: Si. Bonos, fondos, acciones, ETFs, FX y otros. No todos disponibles en todas las jurisdicciones.
Limitaciones: La web y la App suelen mezclar Ingles y Portugues pero no es una situacion imposible. Las tarjetas de debito y credito estan disponibles inclusive para no residentes pero hay un catch, el delivery es a la sucursal o dentro de portugal. Se puede usar una "mailing address" en Portugal or ir de manera personal.


Banco BPI S.A. - Portugal
https://www.bancobpi.pt/
Banco BPI S.A. establecido en Lisboa en 1995. Supervisado por el Banco central Portugues bajo licencia #10 (https://www.bportugal.pt/en/entidadeautorizada/banco-bpi-sa) y el ECB.
CRS: Si, compliant.
Withholding tax: 28%, Puede reducirse vía DTA.
Deposito mínimo: 0 EUR.
Deposito mínimo requerido para apertura: 0 EUR.
Balance mínimo: 0 EUR.
Costo mensual: 3.5+Tax a 7.5+Tax EUR.
Underfunding: 0 EUR.
Divisas: EUR, CHF, GBP, USD.
Tarjetas de débito: Si, dos ofrecidas en el paquete en EUR.
Tarjetas de crédito: Si, en EUR.
No residentes: Si.
Divisas exóticas: ZAR, CAD, NZD, SGD, JPY, AUD, NOK, DKK, SEK, PLN.
Seguro de depósitos: Si, ECB standard. EUR 100.000 x cliente x banco. https://www.fgd.pt/sistema-europeu-de-garantia-de-depositos
Inversiones: Si. Bonos, fondos, FX y otros. No todos disponibles en todas las jurisdicciones.
Limitaciones: N/A.


easisave - Malta
https://www.easisave.com
easisave es un producto de FIMBank PLC. Consecuentemente no es en si un banco sino que nos ofrece cuentas de fácil acceso con onboarding digital. Solo ofrecen cajas de ahorro y plazo fijos. Se puede abir únicamente una caja de ahorro sin embargo un plazo fijo requiere una caja de ahorro (donde se pagaran los intereses). Las cuentas son libres de costo.
FIMBank P.L.C. es un banco con sede central en Malta (Licenciado por Malta Financial Services Authority bajo licencia C17003 (https://www.mfsa.mt/financial-services-registeresult/?id=2195), su otra sede se encuentra en el Dubái International Financial Center opebando bajo licencia #273 (https://www.difc.ae/public-registefimbank-plc/) y operan mayoritariamente global trade finance, import/export cartas de crédito y banca offshore para compañías de una tercera jurisdicción. Además hacen servician a clientes personales bajo el producto de nombre FIMBank Direct.
FIMBank PLC es una compañía publica incorporada bajo las leyes de Malta y listada en la bolsa de dicho país. Quien esta detrás de la firma? Tiene solo dos accionistas, United Gulf Holding Company B.S.C (Banco establecido en 1991, EMEA) y Burgan Bank K.P.S.C. (Banco establecido en 1975 Kuwait/GCC/Jordania). Estos dos bancos además son subsidiarios de KIPCO (www.kipco.com) Kuwait Investment Projects Company fondo de inversión soberano del estado de Kuwait. Fundado en 1975 y con activos superiores a USD 30 Billiones.
CRS: Si, compliant.
Withholding tax: 0%, El cliente declara y paga acorde a su jurisdicción de residencia fiscal.
Deposito mínimo: 0 EUR.
Deposito mínimo requerido para apertura: 50 EU 50 USD.
Balance mínimo: 50 EU 50 USD. EUR 1000 para plazo fijos.
Costo mensual: 0 EUR.
Underfunding: N/A.
Divisas: EUR, USD.
Tarjetas de débito: No.
Tarjetas de crédito: No.
No residentes: Si.
Divisas exoticas: No.
Seguro de depósitos: Si, ECB standard. EUR 100.000 x cliente. Maltese Depositor Compensation Scheme http://www.compensationschemes.org.mt/
Inversiones: Si. Caja de ahorros, plazo fijos.
Limitaciones: Si. Para registrarse como cliente es imperativo tener una cuenta domiciliada en la Unión Europea excluyendo dependencias de la corona pero incluyendo a Reino Unido y Gibraltar. La cuenta no puede ser un EMI y debe ser una cuenta en una institución de crédito. El IBAN de la cuenta es chequeado al momento del registro.
Individuals (Maltese nationals and non-Maltese nationals) who are 18 years and over, holding an account with a credit institution within the European Economic Area (EEA), which currently includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark (excluding the Faroe Islands and Greenland), Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and UK (excluding Channel Islands and Isle of Man) or an account with Burgan Bank in Kuwait, Turkey or Jordan.
Para registrarse en easisave y hacer uso de los plazo fijos hay que abrir primero una easisave savings account donde se deposita el mínimo requerido al momento de la apertura.
Depósitos y extracciones de la cuenta easisave son posibles únicamente y exclusivamente desde/hacia el IBAN usado al momento del registro y a nombre del cliente. Los intereses se pagan gross/net a la easisave savings account haciendo uso del 0% withholding tax Maltes.


FIMBank PLC - Malta
https://www.fimbank.com/direct/
https://www.fimbank.com/direct/fim/customer-guidelines.html
FIMBank Direct es el nombre que se le da a la banca Online de FIMBank. La diferencia principal con easisave es que vía esta entidad se pueden abrir cuentas corrientes, las cuales no requieren una cuenta en otra entidad de crédito domiciliada en la Unión Europea para operar o dar servicio. El catch es que los costos son mas altos que lidiar con easisave directamente. Sin embargo ofrece mas flexibilidad. Hay que leer los costos con atención, cuando están en USD aplican a operaciones no en euros. Los pagos SEPA desde una cuenta easisave son gratuitos cuando en otro caso tienen costo. Otra diferencia es que requieren mas papeleo que el requerido para easisave.
Fees: https://www.fimbank.com/en/standard-tariff-of-charges
CRS: Si, compliant.
Withholding tax: 0%, El cliente declara y paga acorde a su jurisdicción de residencia fiscal.
Deposito mínimo: 50 EUUSD.
Deposito mínimo requerido para apertura:
Savings account 50 EUUSD.
Current account 5000 EUUSD.
Balance mínimo:
Savings account 50 EUUSD.
Current account 2500 USD.
Costo anual: 100 USD.
Underfunding: 100 USD.
Divisas: EUR, USD, GBP.
Tarjetas de débito: No.
Tarjetas de crédito: No.
No residentes: Si.
Divisas exoticas: Si bajo pedido.
Limitaciones: La caja de ahorro tiene la misma limitacion que easisave (ya que es el mimo producto) donde se debe tener una cuenta en la Union Europea en una entidad crediticea. Lo mismo que la limitacion de easisave. Esta limitacion no existe para la cuenta corriente.
Seguro de depósitos: Si, ECB standard. EUR 100.000 x cliente. Maltese Depositor Compensation Scheme http://www.compensationschemes.org.mt/

Happy banking.

Donations.
Token Wallet address BTC 19xvUdQoZosrzYKNaTCK834zRkg5Bogop BCH qqqmyqjspnq0fazk9wvv0elc8vxdp2rkvgfqs3s87x LTC LKNvBgwEtE3w7oEUYiSVb96qCe7xFDBvp8 ETH/DAI 0x1cbbcf2ca8849893ad7feac5ef5c735f6d91fa4e XMR 44AXEt8ZkmjgGuUrPaoNTzBGhp92L3HozSYxAip7dz8qL6A3neJBriLRSjC8Qnam4tEhfw2yXzcXsbZ2dJiWHDC7Ji8nBvx 
submitted by diyexageh to LATAM_PersonalFinance [link] [comments]


2020.06.16 07:29 peter_j_ [SUMMARY] Chinese Export Catalogue 2030:Now with fancy new 5th Gen VTOL Jets!

AERIAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Fighter Jets

 
Nomination Type Cost
J-20 5th Gen Jet Fighter US$72m
J-20C 5th Gen Carrier Multirole $80m
J-31 5th Gen Multirole Strike Fighter $60m
J-31C 5th Gen Carrier Multirole Strike $65m
J-28 5th Gen VTOL $100m
Chengdu ​JF-17B Thunder 4th Gen Multirole ​US$38m
Chengdu J-10A Single Seat Multirole US$30m
Chengdu J-10B Upgraded, AESA, IRST US$40m
Chengdu J-10C Upgraded, true 4th+ Gen US$60m
Shenyang J-11A Based on Su-27 US$45m
Shenyang J-11B Indigenous J-11. Also available in twin seat variant US$50m
Shenyang J-15 Carrier Variant of J-11 US$55m
Shenyang J-16 Twin Seat, Twin Engine Strike Jet US$55m
J-8T BVR Interceptor with JL-10A X-band radar, WP-13B-II engines US$25m
 
Light Attack Jets Cost
Guizhou JL-9 US$5m
Guizhou JL-9G US$9m
Hongdu JL-8 US$5m
Hongdu L-15 US$15m
Nanchang Q-5 US$15m
 

UAV and UCAV

There are a lot of them, but here is a list of the best and most exportable ones:
UCAV Type Cost
Hongdu GJ-11 MALE Stealth Jet UCAV, 3,000kg payload $20m
AVIC Cloud Shadow MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CAIG Wing Loon II MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CASC CH-7 HALE UCAV Stealth Jet UCAV, 2,500kg payload, not in production yet $Unknown
Guizhou WZ-2000 MALE Jet UCAV, 80kg payload $9m
UAV Type Cost
SYAC Divine Eagle HALE Recon UAV, with AESA, Optronic cameras and thermal imaging $8m
Guizhou Soar Dragon MALE Recon UAV, AEWAC $9m
GAIC Harrier Hawk MALE SARV $6m
BZK-005 Sea Eagle Maritime Catapult launched Recon UAV $5m
 

Larger Aircraft

 
Bomber Cost
Xian H-6 US$26m
Xian H-6K US$30m
[Xian H-20 $450m
 
Maritime Patrol Cost
​AG-600 (TA-600) ​​US$22m
Y-8 MPA US$15m
Y-8GX6 US$25m
HX-21 $135m
 
Transport Cost
Harbin Y-12 US$5m
Shaanxi Y-8 US$15m
Shaanxi Y-9 US$19m
Shaanxi Y-30 $30m
Xian Y-20A US$160m
 
ISR Cost
KJ-200 AEW US$70m
KJ-2000 AEW US$90m
KJ-3000 AEW US$180m
 
EW/ELINT Cost
Shenyang J-11D US$45m
Shenyang J-16D US$70.00 mln
​Y-9G ​ US$25.00 mln
Y-30G $38m
 
In Air Refuelling Plane Cost
RFY-21 $130m
Y-30Y $55m

Helicopters

Helicopter Type Cost
CAIC Z-10 Attack Helicopter $24m
CAIC Z-18G Utility / Transport $20m
CAIC Z-18J ASW / Naval $24m
CAIC Z-18M MEDEVAC $12m
Harbin Z-19 Light Attack/Eecon $12m
Harbin Z-20 Transport / Utility $10m
CAIG Z-50 Advanced Attack $30m
Avicopter AC-330 Super Heavy Transport $28m
 

NAVAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 
Carriers Cost
Type 002 CV US$1,800m
Type 003 CV US$2,800m
Type 004 CVN US$3,500m
Drone Destroyer $2,000m
 

Amphibious Naval Craft

 
Designation Type Cost
Type 075 class LHA US$750m
Type 081 class LPD US$500m
Type 071 Yuzhao class LPD US$300m
Type 072A class LST US$105m
Type 073 IV Yunshu class LSM US$80m
Type 074A Yubei class LSM US$55m
Jingsah II class LCAC US$15m
Type 726 Yuyi class LCAC US$35m
Type 067 Yunnan class LCU US$3.5m
Type 068 class LCU ​US$5m
Type 271III LCU US$4.5m
Type 271IIIA LCU US$9m
 

Major Surface Combatants

 
Cruisers Cost
Type 055 class US$1,250m
Type 055B class US$1,600m
Type 065 Class US$2,000m
 
Destroyers Cost
Type 051C Luzhou class US$800m
Type 052B Luyang I class US$500m
Type 052C Luyang II class US$800m
Type 052D class US$1,150m
Type 062 Class $1,500m
 
Frigates Cost
Type 053H3 Jiangwei-II class US$200m
Type 054 Jiangkai-I class US$375m
Type 054A Jiangkai-II class US$450m
​Type 054B Jiankai-III class ​ US$500m
Type 054C US$650m
Type 058 Optionally Manned Frigate US$650m
 
Corvettes Cost
Type 056 Jiangdao class US$45m
Type 056A Jiangdao class ​ US$60m
Type 057 $110m
 
Missile Ships Cost
Azmat class FACM* US$22m
Houdong class FACM US$25m
Type 022 Houbei class FAC US$15m
Type 023 Fast Missile Boat $25m
 
Patrol / Coast Guard Cost
1,000t class Type-I cutter US$14m
1,000t class Type-II cutter US$20m
1,500t class cutter US$45m
3,000t class cutter US$65m
Pattani class OPV US$45m
Type 718 class cutter US$30m
Zhaotou II 15,000 ton cutter $60m
 

Submarines

 
SSK Cost
Type 039G Song class US$340m
Type 039G1 Song class US$350m
Type 041 Yuan class US$600m
 
SSN Cost
Type 093 'Shang' class US$1,200m
Type 093G 'Shang' class US$1,400m
Type 095 class US$1,600m
 
SSBN Cost
Type 043 'Q US$750m
Type 094 'Jin' class US$1,500m
Type 096 'Tang' class US$2,500m
 
MSV Cost
Daijang class DSRV US$70m
 

Support Ships

 
Auxiliary Cost
Dajiang class AO US$120m
Dandao class AO not in production
Danlin class AO not in production
Dayun class AOR US$165m
Fuchang class AO US$70m
Fuchi class AOR US$230m
Fuijan class AO US$65m
Fulin class AOC US$45m
Fuqing class AO US$215m
Fusu class AOR US$325m
Fuzhou class AOC US$40m
Hongqi class AOC US$60m
Leizhou class AOC US$50m
Qinghaihu Class AOR US$433m
Shengli class AOC US$40m
Yantai class AOR US$165m
 
Transport Cost
Fuxianhu class Troop Transport US$150m
Qiongsha class troop transport US$96m
Type 904 class transport US$100m
 
Hospital Ship Cost
Daishandao class AH US$125m
Qiongsha class AH US$96m
Shichang class AGF US$225m
 
Icebreaker Cost
Yanbing class icebreaker US$75m
Yanha class icebreaker US$55m
 

MISSILE SYSTEMS EXPORT

 
ICBMs Cost
DongFeng 31 US$12m
DongFeng 31A US$14m
DongFeng 41 US$20m
 
IRBMs Cost
DongFeng 16 US$12m
DongFeng 26 US$15m
 
MRBMs Cost
DongFeng 21D US$6m
DongFeng 25 US$8m
KT-II US$6m
KT-IIA US$6.5m
KT-III US$7.5m
 
SRBMs Cost
B-611 US$6m
Dong Feng 15 US$2.9m
 
Tactical Missiles Notes Cost
CJ-25 Air Launched Cruise Missile, 500kg warhead $900k
DF-10B Ground-launched cruise missile. Speed limited to Mach 4.5 with low-observable features and a more precise guidance system built into the launch vehicle. Range of 1,200km $20m per system, $400k per missile
YJ-200 VLS LAunched Cruise Missile, range of 800km $600k per missile
YJ-22 VLS-launched Antiship Missile, range of 550km $500k per missile
YJ-22A Submarine launched Cruise Missile, range of 550km $550k per missile
YJ-22B Land Attack Cruise Missile launched from shipping containers, range of 700km $5m per system and $600k per missile
YJ-22C Ground-launched Antiship Missile, range of 700km $18m per launcher and $500k per missile

Air Defence

Missile Defence System Summary Cost
Taikong Mubiao Daodan Ballistic Missile Defence Brigade (20 Vehicles) $2.5 bn
Terminal Interceptor Battalion Mobile Modular BMD (10 Massive Vehicles) $1 bn
[HQ-29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants ABM SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $600m
HQ-19 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $400m
HQ-9 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $200m
HQ-7 SHORAD Battery (22 Vehicles) $120m
HQ-7 FM-80_Self-Propelled) Single SHORAD Vehicle $8m
LW-30 Laser Point Vefence Vehicle $12m
DY-90 Towed SHORAD Missile Launcher $2.5m
 

LAND SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Armoured Vehicles

Main Battle Tanks Cost
Type 102 $8m
Type 90-IIM US$4m
Type 96 US$5m
Type 96G US$6m
Type 99 US$2.5m
Type 99A US$4.5m
Type 99A2 US$5m
 
Light Tanks Cost
Type 63A US$2.5m
Type 92A2L US$3.5m
​VT5 ​ US$4m
ZBD2000 (105mm) US$5m
 
Tank Destroyers Cost
PTL02 US$1m
​ZTL09 ​ US$3.5m
 
APCs Cost
Type 92 APC US$1m
ZFB-05 US$400k
 
IFVs Cost
Type 92 IFV US$1.75m
Type 97 IFV US$4m
YW 307 US$500k
ZBD-04 US$4.75m
ZBD-08 US$5.5m
ZBL-09 US$6.25m
ZBD2000 Airborne IFV US$6.5m
ZLC2000 Airborne IFV US$7.25m
 

Artillery

 
Artillery Cost
PLZ-09 155mm SP Howitzer $4.5m
PLZ-07 122mm SP Howitzer
AH-4 Lightweight Towed 155mm US$3m
[PLL-01](military-today.com/artillery/pll_01.htm) 155mm Towed Howitzer US$1.25m
Type 59 howitzer US$750k
Type 60 Field Gun US$600k
Type 66 howitzer US$600k
Type 83 howitzer US$750k
Type 86 howitzer US$1m
Type 89 122mm SP howitzer US$1.2m
 
AA Guns Cost
PGZ-07 US$15m
Type 59 (57mm) US$1.25m
Type 74 (37mm) US$1m
Type 80 US$3m
Type 85 US$1m
Type 87 US$1.5m
Type 90 (35mm) US$2.75m
Type 95 SPAAG US$12.5m
 
ATGM 4x4 Cost
Type 89 ATGM US$2.25m
Type 92 ATGM US$2.25m
 
Heavy Misc Cost
WS2100 Series 6x6 $60k
WS2200 Series 8x8 $140k
WS2300 Series 6x6 Offroad $300k
WS2400 Series 8x8 Offroad $520k
WS2500 Series 10x10 $1.2m
WS2600 Series 8x10 Offroad $1.7m
WS51 and 52 Series $2.4m
TA5380 Series Average $1.9m
 
Light Misc Cost
QL550 US$75k
8M US$1.25m
QD2008 US$1m
VP3 US$1m
BJ2020 US$15k
BJ2022 US$25k
EQ2050 US$20k
NJ2045 US$25k
NJ2046 US$30k
 
 

CIVILIAN PURCHASE INFORMATION

Company Industry
Cosco Group Commercial shipping
China Merchant Holdings int. Port Development
Guangxi LiuGong & XCMG Heavy equipment
CNPC Exploration & Development Company Energy exploration
China Three Gorges Group Renewables (solar, wind, hydro)
China State Grid Corp Power Grid
China Railway Group & China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation Rail
China Railway Corporation High Speed Rail
China National Nuclear Corporation Nuclear energy
 

NUCLEAR REACTOR EXPORTS

Product MWe Cost
CAP1400 1400 US$7.5bn
HCPR-1 1170 US$6.5bn
ACPR-1000+ 1050 US$13.6bn
HTGR-200 200 US$2.2bn
 

High Speed Trains

Model Speed (op/max) Cost
CR400AF/BF 300/468 km/h US$2.1m
CRH380A 350/486 km/h US$1.8m
CRH6 200/346 km/h US$1.2m
 

SATELLITE EXPORTS

Communications Sats Cost
Fenghuo US$525m
Shentong US$125m
Earth Observation Sats Cost
Yaogan Optical US$700m
Yaogan SAR US$1,350m
Huanjing SAR US$1,150m
 

If you would like to place an order for any civilian or military items, this is the only location to buy them.

Credit where it is due to S01780 and Spummydue
submitted by peter_j_ to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]


2020.06.09 13:15 peter_j_ [SUMMARY] We got the kit you need! Chinese Export Catalogue 2029

AERIAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Fighter Jets

 
Nomination Type Cost
J-20 5th Gen Jet Fighter US$72m
J-31 5th Gen Multirole Strike Fighter $60m
Chengdu ​JF-17B Thunder 4th Gen Multirole ​US$38m
Chengdu J-10A Single Seat Multirole US$30m
Chengdu J-10B Upgraded, AESA, IRST US$40m
Chengdu J-10C Upgraded, true 4th+ Gen US$60m
Shenyang J-11A Based on Su-27 US$45m
Shenyang J-11B Indigenous J-11. Also available in twin seat variant US$50m
Shenyang J-15 Carrier Variant of J-11 US$55m
Shenyang J-16 Twin Seat, Twin Engine Strike Jet US$55m
J-8T BVR Interceptor with JL-10A X-band radar, WP-13B-II engines US$25m
 
Light Attack Jets Cost
Guizhou JL-9 US$5m
Guizhou JL-9G US$9m
Hongdu JL-8 US$5m
Hongdu L-15 US$15m
Nanchang Q-5 US$15m
 

UAV and UCAV

There are a lot of them, but here is a list of the best and most exportable ones:
UCAV Type Cost
Hongdu GJ-11 MALE Stealth Jet UCAV, 3,000kg payload $20m
AVIC Cloud Shadow MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CAIG Wing Loon II MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CASC CH-7 HALE UCAV Stealth Jet UCAV, 2,500kg payload, not in production yet $Unknown
Guizhou WZ-2000 MALE Jet UCAV, 80kg payload $9m
UAV Type Cost
SYAC Divine Eagle HALE Recon UAV, with AESA, Optronic cameras and thermal imaging $8m
Guizhou Soar Dragon MALE Recon UAV, AEWAC $9m
GAIC Harrier Hawk MALE SARV $6m
BZK-005 Sea Eagle Maritime Catapult launched Recon UAV $5m
 

Larger Aircraft

 
Bomber Cost
Xian H-6 US$26m
Xian H-6K US$30m
[Xian H-20 $450m
 
Maritime Patrol Cost
​AG-600 (TA-600) ​​US$22m
Y-8 MPA US$15m
Y-8GX6 US$25m
HX-21 $135m
 
Transport Cost
Harbin Y-12 US$5m
Shaanxi Y-8 US$15m
Shaanxi Y-9 US$19m
Shaanxi Y-30 $30m
Xian Y-20A US$160m
 
ISR Cost
KJ-200 AEW US$70m
KJ-2000 AEW US$90m
KJ-3000 AEW US$180m
 
EW/ELINT Cost
Shenyang J-11D US$45m
Shenyang J-16D US$70.00 mln
​Y-9G ​ US$25.00 mln
Y-30G $38m
 
In Air Refuelling Plane Cost
RFY-21 $130m
Y-30Y $55m

Helicopters

Helicopter Type Cost
CAIC Z-10 Attack Helicopter $24m
CAIC Z-18G Utility / Transport $20m
CAIC Z-18J ASW / Naval $24m
CAIC Z-18M MEDEVAC $12m
Harbin Z-19 Light Attack/Eecon $12m
Harbin Z-20 Transport / Utility $10m
CAIG Z-50 Advanced Attack $30m
Avicopter AC-330 Super Heavy Transport $28m
 

NAVAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 
Carriers Cost
Type 002 CV US$1,800m
Type 003 CV US$2,800m
Type 004 CVN US$3,500m
Drone Destroyer $2,000m
 

Amphibious Naval Craft

 
Designation Type Cost
Type 075 class LHA US$750m
Type 081 class LPD US$500m
Type 071 Yuzhao class LPD US$300m
Type 072A class LST US$105m
Type 073 IV Yunshu class LSM US$80m
Type 074A Yubei class LSM US$55m
Jingsah II class LCAC US$15m
Type 726 Yuyi class LCAC US$35m
Type 067 Yunnan class LCU US$3.5m
Type 068 class LCU ​US$5m
Type 271III LCU US$4.5m
Type 271IIIA LCU US$9m
 

Major Surface Combatants

 
Cruisers Cost
Type 055 class US$1,250m
Type 055B class US$1,600m
Type 065 Class US$2,000m
 
Destroyers Cost
Type 051C Luzhou class US$800m
Type 052B Luyang I class US$500m
Type 052C Luyang II class US$800m
Type 052D class US$1,150m
Type 062 Class $1,500m
 
Frigates Cost
Type 053H3 Jiangwei-II class US$200m
Type 054 Jiangkai-I class US$375m
Type 054A Jiangkai-II class US$450m
​Type 054B Jiankai-III class ​ US$500m
Type 054C US$650m
Type 058 Optionally Manned Frigate US$650m
 
Corvettes Cost
Type 056 Jiangdao class US$45m
Type 056A Jiangdao class ​ US$60m
Type 057 $110m
 
Missile Ships Cost
Azmat class FACM* US$22m
Houdong class FACM US$25m
Type 022 Houbei class FAC US$15m
Type 023 Fast Missile Boat $25m
 
Patrol / Coast Guard Cost
1,000t class Type-I cutter US$14m
1,000t class Type-II cutter US$20m
1,500t class cutter US$45m
3,000t class cutter US$65m
Pattani class OPV US$45m
Type 718 class cutter US$30m
Zhaotou II 15,000 ton cutter $60m
 

Submarines

 
SSK Cost
Type 039G Song class US$340m
Type 039G1 Song class US$350m
Type 041 Yuan class US$600m
 
SSN Cost
Type 093 'Shang' class US$1,200m
Type 093G 'Shang' class US$1,400m
Type 095 class US$1,600m
 
SSBN Cost
Type 043 'Q US$750m
Type 094 'Jin' class US$1,500m
Type 096 'Tang' class US$2,500m
 
MSV Cost
Daijang class DSRV US$70m
 

Support Ships

 
Auxiliary Cost
Dajiang class AO US$120m
Dandao class AO not in production
Danlin class AO not in production
Dayun class AOR US$165m
Fuchang class AO US$70m
Fuchi class AOR US$230m
Fuijan class AO US$65m
Fulin class AOC US$45m
Fuqing class AO US$215m
Fusu class AOR US$325m
Fuzhou class AOC US$40m
Hongqi class AOC US$60m
Leizhou class AOC US$50m
Qinghaihu Class AOR US$433m
Shengli class AOC US$40m
Yantai class AOR US$165m
 
Transport Cost
Fuxianhu class Troop Transport US$150m
Qiongsha class troop transport US$96m
Type 904 class transport US$100m
 
Hospital Ship Cost
Daishandao class AH US$125m
Qiongsha class AH US$96m
Shichang class AGF US$225m
 
Icebreaker Cost
Yanbing class icebreaker US$75m
Yanha class icebreaker US$55m
 

MISSILE SYSTEMS EXPORT

 
ICBMs Cost
DongFeng 31 US$12m
DongFeng 31A US$14m
DongFeng 41 US$20m
 
IRBMs Cost
DongFeng 16 US$12m
DongFeng 26 US$15m
 
MRBMs Cost
DongFeng 21D US$6m
DongFeng 25 US$8m
KT-II US$6m
KT-IIA US$6.5m
KT-III US$7.5m
 
SRBMs Cost
B-611 US$6m
Dong Feng 15 US$2.9m
 
Tactical Missiles Notes Cost
CJ-25 Air Launched Cruise Missile, 500kg warhead $900k
DF-10B Ground-launched cruise missile. Speed limited to Mach 4.5 with low-observable features and a more precise guidance system built into the launch vehicle. Range of 1,200km $20m per system, $400k per missile
YJ-200 VLS LAunched Cruise Missile, range of 800km $600k per missile
YJ-22 VLS-launched Antiship Missile, range of 550km $500k per missile
YJ-22A Submarine launched Cruise Missile, range of 550km $550k per missile
YJ-22B Land Attack Cruise Missile launched from shipping containers, range of 700km $5m per system and $600k per missile
YJ-22C Ground-launched Antiship Missile, range of 700km $18m per launcher and $500k per missile

Air Defence

Missile Defence System Summary Cost
Taikong Mubiao Daodan Ballistic Missile Defence Brigade (20 Vehicles) $2.5 bn
Terminal Interceptor Battalion Mobile Modular BMD (10 Massive Vehicles) $1 bn
[HQ-29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants ABM SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $600m
HQ-19 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $400m
HQ-9 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $200m
HQ-7 SHORAD Battery (22 Vehicles) $120m
HQ-7 FM-80_Self-Propelled) Single SHORAD Vehicle $8m
LW-30 Laser Point Vefence Vehicle $12m
DY-90 Towed SHORAD Missile Launcher $2.5m
 

LAND SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Armoured Vehicles

Main Battle Tanks Cost
Type 102 $8m
Type 90-IIM US$4m
Type 96 US$5m
Type 96G US$6m
Type 99 US$2.5m
Type 99A US$4.5m
Type 99A2 US$5m
 
Light Tanks Cost
Type 63A US$2.5m
Type 92A2L US$3.5m
​VT5 ​ US$4m
ZBD2000 (105mm) US$5m
 
Tank Destroyers Cost
PTL02 US$1m
​ZTL09 ​ US$3.5m
 
APCs Cost
Type 92 APC US$1m
ZFB-05 US$400k
 
IFVs Cost
Type 92 IFV US$1.75m
Type 97 IFV US$4m
YW 307 US$500k
ZBD-04 US$4.75m
ZBD-08 US$5.5m
ZBL-09 US$6.25m
ZBD2000 Airborne IFV US$6.5m
ZLC2000 Airborne IFV US$7.25m
 

Artillery

 
Artillery Cost
PLZ-09 155mm SP Howitzer $4.5m
PLZ-07 122mm SP Howitzer
AH-4 Lightweight Towed 155mm US$3m
[PLL-01](military-today.com/artillery/pll_01.htm) 155mm Towed Howitzer US$1.25m
Type 59 howitzer US$750k
Type 60 Field Gun US$600k
Type 66 howitzer US$600k
Type 83 howitzer US$750k
Type 86 howitzer US$1m
Type 89 122mm SP howitzer US$1.2m
 
AA Guns Cost
PGZ-07 US$15m
Type 59 (57mm) US$1.25m
Type 74 (37mm) US$1m
Type 80 US$3m
Type 85 US$1m
Type 87 US$1.5m
Type 90 (35mm) US$2.75m
Type 95 SPAAG US$12.5m
 
ATGM 4x4 Cost
Type 89 ATGM US$2.25m
Type 92 ATGM US$2.25m
 
Heavy Misc Cost
WS2100 Series 6x6 $60k
WS2200 Series 8x8 $140k
WS2300 Series 6x6 Offroad $300k
WS2400 Series 8x8 Offroad $520k
WS2500 Series 10x10 $1.2m
WS2600 Series 8x10 Offroad $1.7m
WS51 and 52 Series $2.4m
TA5380 Series Average $1.9m
 
Light Misc Cost
QL550 US$75k
8M US$1.25m
QD2008 US$1m
VP3 US$1m
BJ2020 US$15k
BJ2022 US$25k
EQ2050 US$20k
NJ2045 US$25k
NJ2046 US$30k
 
 

CIVILIAN PURCHASE INFORMATION

Company Industry
Cosco Group Commercial shipping
China Merchant Holdings int. Port Development
Guangxi LiuGong & XCMG Heavy equipment
CNPC Exploration & Development Company Energy exploration
China Three Gorges Group Renewables (solar, wind, hydro)
China State Grid Corp Power Grid
China Railway Group & China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation Rail
China Railway Corporation High Speed Rail
China National Nuclear Corporation Nuclear energy
 

NUCLEAR REACTOR EXPORTS

Product MWe Cost
CAP1400 1400 US$7.5bn
HCPR-1 1170 US$6.5bn
ACPR-1000+ 1050 US$13.6bn
HTGR-200 200 US$2.2bn
 

High Speed Trains

Model Speed (op/max) Cost
CR400AF/BF 300/468 km/h US$2.1m
CRH380A 350/486 km/h US$1.8m
CRH6 200/346 km/h US$1.2m
 

SATELLITE EXPORTS

Communications Sats Cost
Fenghuo US$525m
Shentong US$125m
Earth Observation Sats Cost
Yaogan Optical US$700m
Yaogan SAR US$1,350m
Huanjing SAR US$1,150m
 

If you would like to place an order for any civilian or military items, this is the only location to buy them.

Credit where it is due to S01780 and Spummydue
submitted by peter_j_ to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]


2020.06.03 19:00 leojg Quiero volver a ver montañas Gandalf! - Mochilerismo 101

Ya van un par de buriceps que me preguntan como es esto de viajar como mochilero, con poca cosa. Que todas tus pertenencias se reduzcan a lo que entra en tu mochila y poder viajar a donde tus pies y tu coraje te lleven(?).
Como ahora mismo me encuentro recorriendo los caminos de la patria, en parte porque la situación mundial no me permite salir afuera, me parece un buen momento para contarles un par de tips por si también quieren agarrar una mochila e irse a saciar su sed de aventura
1- A donde vas?
Hay gente que va a Tres Cruces(o cualquier terminal del mundo) y pregunta por el proximo bus a cualqueir lugar. Yo no, yo busco medianamene que hay de interesante en el país o region a donde quiero ir. En el caso de Uruguay para nosotros es fácil, porque tenemos una idea al menos general de que hay en cada departamento y si vale o no la pena visitarlo. De todas formas, capaz que querés visitar Colonia, pero haciendo una busqueda rápida descubris que Colonia no es solo la ciudad vieja sino que todo el departamento tiene lugares interesantes para ver, como las colonias suizas, Carmelo, etc.
Supongamos que sos un ignorante total del país, en ese caso hace una busqueda rápida en google, Que hay para ver en uruguay? Y listo, ahi tenes para buscar. Alternativamente, estos sitios te van a dar algo de info:
https://www.budgetyourtrip.com/uruguay
https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Uruguay
https://reddit.com/uruguay (shocking right?)
Listo, con eso ya debes saber a donde queres ir.
2- Como vas?
Capaz que queres ir a Villa Serrana, en Lavalleja, tremendo pueblito entre los cerros. Bueno, en Tres Curces no te venden un ticket a Villa Serrana.
Podes buscar en sitios como estos:
https://www.rome2rio.com/
https://urubus.com.uy/?lang=es
Ojo, tomar la data de ahi con pinzas, a veces no es 100% confiable.
Pero pero… y si no aparece nada? Bueno, capaz que hay una linea local y no aparece en esos sitios porque no tienen ni web(en el caso de Villa Serrana es así, sale 2 veces de Minas, si no me equivoco)
Y si no hay nada, bueno el autostop es bastante fácil en uruguay, segun esto:
https://hitchwiki.org/en/Uruguay
3- Que llevas?
Ahora si, llegamos a la mochila, una pequeña intro, por si no tienen nada de idea, las mochilas miden su capacidad en litros, una mochila tipo de escuela anda en 20 o 30 litros. Una mochila para trekking puede llegar hasta como 80 o 90 litros.
Para mochilear no necesitas 90 litros, en verano te diría que con 40 andas bien y en invierno con 50 o 60, según la duración del viaje, yo ahora ando con una de 50 y tengo otra de 66 litros para viajes más largos o a lugares frios.
Lo que vas a llevar depende de vos, pero mas que 1 par de championes(2 capaz, si queres hacer mucho trekking, lleva unos de trekking), 1 de ojotas, 3 busos, 1 buso grueso, 1 campera y 1 o 2 pantalones no precisas, despues si, ropa interior como para una semana, por las dudas.
Hay una regla que dice, pone todo lo que crees que vas a necesitar ordenado en el piso, o arriba de una cama y despues reducilo a la mitad. O sea, si pusiste 4 busos, saca 2.
Generalmente usamos mucha menos ropa de la que pensamos, yo al principio iba con 6 busos, 3 pantalones, etc, al pedo, podes viajar con mucho menos.
Ah y como bien dice la guia del autoestopista espacial, una toalla y una frazadita por las dudas.
Yo laburo remoto, asique también llevo una laptop, teléfonos y una cantidad exagerada de cables, pero me parece que no es necesario.
4- Ya está?... Si ya está.
5- Profit
Bueno, no hay mucho más misterio que eso. Sali, viaja, celebrá como en el interior te podes clavar una milanga mas grande que el plato por mucho menos de lo que te sale en Montevideo.
Note: Lo trate de hacer medio relacionado a Uruguay para que no me lo bajen. Espero que no me lo bajen.
Se puede completar mas, si se puede, hay miles de recursos, blogs, canales de youtube, comunidaes, etc sobre viajes, minimalismo y toda la bola.
submitted by leojg to uruguay [link] [comments]


2020.06.03 09:46 peter_j_ [SUMMARY] Chinese Export Catalogue 2028

AERIAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Fighter Jets

 
Nomination Type Cost
J-20 5th Gen Jet Fighter US$72m
J-31 5th Gen Multirole Strike Fighter $60m
Chengdu ​JF-17B Thunder 4th Gen Multirole ​US$38m
Chengdu J-10A Single Seat Multirole US$30m
Chengdu J-10B Upgraded, AESA, IRST US$40m
Chengdu J-10C Upgraded, true 4th+ Gen US$60m
Shenyang J-11A Based on Su-27 US$45m
Shenyang J-11B Indigenous J-11. Also available in twin seat variant US$50m
Shenyang J-15 Carrier Variant of J-11 US$55m
Shenyang J-16 Twin Seat, Twin Engine Strike Jet US$55m
J-8T BVR Interceptor with JL-10A X-band radar, WP-13B-II engines US$25m
 
Light Attack Jets Cost
Guizhou JL-9 US$5m
Guizhou JL-9G US$9m
Hongdu JL-8 US$5m
Hongdu L-15 US$15m
Nanchang Q-5 US$15m
 

UAV and UCAV

There are a lot of them, but here is a list of the best and most exportable ones:
UCAV Type Cost
Hongdu GJ-11 MALE Stealth Jet UCAV, 3,000kg payload $20m
AVIC Cloud Shadow MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CAIG Wing Loon II MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CASC CH-7 HALE UCAV Stealth Jet UCAV, 2,500kg payload, not in production yet $Unknown
Guizhou WZ-2000 MALE Jet UCAV, 80kg payload $9m
UAV Type Cost
SYAC Divine Eagle HALE Recon UAV, with AESA, Optronic cameras and thermal imaging $8m
Guizhou Soar Dragon MALE Recon UAV, AEWAC $9m
GAIC Harrier Hawk MALE SARV $6m
BZK-005 Sea Eagle Maritime Catapult launched Recon UAV $5m
 

Larger Aircraft

 
Bomber Cost
Xian H-6 US$26m
Xian H-6K US$30m
[Xian H-20 $450m
 
Maritime Patrol Cost
​AG-600 (TA-600) ​​US$22m
Y-8 MPA US$15m
Y-8GX6 US$25m
HX-21 $135m
 
Transport Cost
Harbin Y-12 US$5m
Shaanxi Y-8 US$15m
Shaanxi Y-9 US$19m
Shaanxi Y-30 $30m
Xian Y-20A US$160m
 
ISR Cost
KJ-200 AEW US$70m
KJ-2000 AEW US$90m
KJ-3000 AEW US$180m
 
EW/ELINT Cost
Shenyang J-11D US$45m
Shenyang J-16D US$70.00 mln
​Y-9G ​ US$25.00 mln
Y-30G $38m
 
In Air Refuelling Plane Cost
RFY-21 $130m
Y-30Y $55m

Helicopters

Helicopter Type Cost
CAIC Z-10 Attack Helicopter $24m
CAIC Z-18G Utility / Transport $20m
CAIC Z-18J ASW / Naval $24m
CAIC Z-18M MEDEVAC $12m
Harbin Z-19 Light Attack/Eecon $12m
Harbin Z-20 Transport / Utility $10m
CAIG Z-50 Advanced Attack $30m
Avicopter AC-330 Super Heavy Transport $28m
 

NAVAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 
Carriers Cost
Type 002 CV US$1,800m
Type 003 CV US$2,800m
Type 004 CVN US$3,500m
Drone Destroyer $2,000m
 

Amphibious Naval Craft

 
Designation Type Cost
Type 075 class LHA US$750m
Type 081 class LPD US$500m
Type 071 Yuzhao class LPD US$300m
Type 072A class LST US$105m
Type 073 IV Yunshu class LSM US$80m
Type 074A Yubei class LSM US$55m
Jingsah II class LCAC US$15m
Type 726 Yuyi class LCAC US$35m
Type 067 Yunnan class LCU US$3.5m
Type 068 class LCU ​US$5m
Type 271III LCU US$4.5m
Type 271IIIA LCU US$9m
 

Major Surface Combatants

 
Cruisers Cost
Type 055 class US$1,250m
Type 055B class US$1,600m
Type 065 Class US$2,000m
 
Destroyers Cost
Type 051C Luzhou class US$800m
Type 052B Luyang I class US$500m
Type 052C Luyang II class US$800m
Type 052D class US$1,150m
Type 062 Class $1,500m
 
Frigates Cost
Type 053H3 Jiangwei-II class US$200m
Type 054 Jiangkai-I class US$375m
Type 054A Jiangkai-II class US$450m
​Type 054B Jiankai-III class ​ US$500m
Type 054C US$650m
Type 058 Optionally Manned Frigate US$650m
 
Corvettes Cost
Type 056 Jiangdao class US$45m
Type 056A Jiangdao class ​ US$60m
Type 057 $110m
 
Missile Ships Cost
Azmat class FACM* US$22m
Houdong class FACM US$25m
Type 022 Houbei class FAC US$15m
Type 023 Fast Missile Boat $25m
 
Patrol / Coast Guard Cost
1,000t class Type-I cutter US$14m
1,000t class Type-II cutter US$20m
1,500t class cutter US$45m
3,000t class cutter US$65m
Pattani class OPV US$45m
Type 718 class cutter US$30m
Zhaotou II 15,000 ton cutter $60m
 

Submarines

 
SSK Cost
Type 039G Song class US$340m
Type 039G1 Song class US$350m
Type 041 Yuan class US$600m
 
SSN Cost
Type 093 'Shang' class US$1,200m
Type 093G 'Shang' class US$1,400m
Type 095 class US$1,600m
 
SSBN Cost
Type 043 'Q US$750m
Type 094 'Jin' class US$1,500m
Type 096 'Tang' class US$2,500m
 
MSV Cost
Daijang class DSRV US$70m
 

Support Ships

 
Auxiliary Cost
Dajiang class AO US$120m
Dandao class AO not in production
Danlin class AO not in production
Dayun class AOR US$165m
Fuchang class AO US$70m
Fuchi class AOR US$230m
Fuijan class AO US$65m
Fulin class AOC US$45m
Fuqing class AO US$215m
Fusu class AOR US$325m
Fuzhou class AOC US$40m
Hongqi class AOC US$60m
Leizhou class AOC US$50m
Qinghaihu Class AOR US$433m
Shengli class AOC US$40m
Yantai class AOR US$165m
 
Transport Cost
Fuxianhu class Troop Transport US$150m
Qiongsha class troop transport US$96m
Type 904 class transport US$100m
 
Hospital Ship Cost
Daishandao class AH US$125m
Qiongsha class AH US$96m
Shichang class AGF US$225m
 
Icebreaker Cost
Yanbing class icebreaker US$75m
Yanha class icebreaker US$55m
 

MISSILE SYSTEMS EXPORT

 
ICBMs Cost
DongFeng 31 US$12m
DongFeng 31A US$14m
DongFeng 41 US$20m
 
IRBMs Cost
DongFeng 16 US$12m
DongFeng 26 US$15m
 
MRBMs Cost
DongFeng 21D US$6m
DongFeng 25 US$8m
KT-II US$6m
KT-IIA US$6.5m
KT-III US$7.5m
 
SRBMs Cost
B-611 US$6m
Dong Feng 15 US$2.9m
 
Tactical Missiles Notes Cost
CJ-25 Air Launched Cruise Missile, 500kg warhead $900k
DF-10B Ground-launched cruise missile. Speed limited to Mach 4.5 with low-observable features and a more precise guidance system built into the launch vehicle. Range of 1,200km $20m per system, $400k per missile
YJ-200 VLS LAunched Cruise Missile, range of 800km $600k per missile
YJ-22 VLS-launched Antiship Missile, range of 550km $500k per missile
YJ-22A Submarine launched Cruise Missile, range of 550km $550k per missile
YJ-22B Land Attack Cruise Missile launched from shipping containers, range of 700km $5m per system and $600k per missile
YJ-22C Ground-launched Antiship Missile, range of 700km $18m per launcher and $500k per missile

Air Defence

Missile Defence System Summary Cost
Taikong Mubiao Daodan Ballistic Missile Defence Brigade (20 Vehicles) $2.5 bn
Terminal Interceptor Battalion Mobile Modular BMD (10 Massive Vehicles) $1 bn
[HQ-29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants ABM SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $600m
HQ-19 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $400m
HQ-9 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $200m
HQ-7 SHORAD Battery (22 Vehicles) $120m
HQ-7 FM-80_Self-Propelled) Single SHORAD Vehicle $8m
LW-30 Laser Point Vefence Vehicle $12m
DY-90 Towed SHORAD Missile Launcher $2.5m
 

LAND SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Armoured Vehicles

Main Battle Tanks Cost
Type 102 $8m
Type 90-IIM US$4m
Type 96 US$5m
Type 96G US$6m
Type 99 US$2.5m
Type 99A US$4.5m
Type 99A2 US$5m
 
Light Tanks Cost
Type 63A US$2.5m
Type 92A2L US$3.5m
​VT5 ​ US$4m
ZBD2000 (105mm) US$5m
 
Tank Destroyers Cost
PTL02 US$1m
​ZTL09 ​ US$3.5m
 
APCs Cost
Type 92 APC US$1m
ZFB-05 US$400k
 
IFVs Cost
Type 92 IFV US$1.75m
Type 97 IFV US$4m
YW 307 US$500k
ZBD-04 US$4.75m
ZBD-08 US$5.5m
ZBL-09 US$6.25m
ZBD2000 Airborne IFV US$6.5m
ZLC2000 Airborne IFV US$7.25m
 

Artillery

 
Artillery Cost
PLZ-09 155mm SP Howitzer $4.5m
PLZ-07 122mm SP Howitzer
AH-4 Lightweight Towed 155mm US$3m
[PLL-01](military-today.com/artillery/pll_01.htm) 155mm Towed Howitzer US$1.25m
Type 59 howitzer US$750k
Type 60 Field Gun US$600k
Type 66 howitzer US$600k
Type 83 howitzer US$750k
Type 86 howitzer US$1m
Type 89 122mm SP howitzer US$1.2m
 
AA Guns Cost
PGZ-07 US$15m
Type 59 (57mm) US$1.25m
Type 74 (37mm) US$1m
Type 80 US$3m
Type 85 US$1m
Type 87 US$1.5m
Type 90 (35mm) US$2.75m
Type 95 SPAAG US$12.5m
 
ATGM 4x4 Cost
Type 89 ATGM US$2.25m
Type 92 ATGM US$2.25m
 
Heavy Misc Cost
WS2100 Series 6x6 $60k
WS2200 Series 8x8 $140k
WS2300 Series 6x6 Offroad $300k
WS2400 Series 8x8 Offroad $520k
WS2500 Series 10x10 $1.2m
WS2600 Series 8x10 Offroad $1.7m
WS51 and 52 Series $2.4m
TA5380 Series Average $1.9m
 
Light Misc Cost
QL550 US$75k
8M US$1.25m
QD2008 US$1m
VP3 US$1m
BJ2020 US$15k
BJ2022 US$25k
EQ2050 US$20k
NJ2045 US$25k
NJ2046 US$30k
 
 

CIVILIAN PURCHASE INFORMATION

Company Industry
Cosco Group Commercial shipping
China Merchant Holdings int. Port Development
Guangxi LiuGong & XCMG Heavy equipment
CNPC Exploration & Development Company Energy exploration
China Three Gorges Group Renewables (solar, wind, hydro)
China State Grid Corp Power Grid
China Railway Group & China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation Rail
China Railway Corporation High Speed Rail
China National Nuclear Corporation Nuclear energy
 

NUCLEAR REACTOR EXPORTS

Product MWe Cost
CAP1400 1400 US$7.5bn
HCPR-1 1170 US$6.5bn
ACPR-1000+ 1050 US$13.6bn
HTGR-200 200 US$2.2bn
 

High Speed Trains

Model Speed (op/max) Cost
CR400AF/BF 300/468 km/h US$2.1m
CRH380A 350/486 km/h US$1.8m
CRH6 200/346 km/h US$1.2m
 

SATELLITE EXPORTS

Communications Sats Cost
Fenghuo US$525m
Shentong US$125m
Earth Observation Sats Cost
Yaogan Optical US$700m
Yaogan SAR US$1,350m
Huanjing SAR US$1,150m
 

If you would like to place an order for any civilian or military items, this is the only location to buy them.

Credit where it is due to S01780 and Spummydue
submitted by peter_j_ to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]


2020.05.27 17:50 deusos [Conflict] Like A Dog For No Reason

Like a dog for no good reason

I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity. - Dwight D. Eisenhower
Taking Stock - China is a paper dragon that can still spit fire
The first attack was a success, but not entirely so. Heavy fighting has erupted in Azad Kashmir and stalled our force’s advance. In Gilgit-Baltistan, we were able to secure Skardu and Gilgit in what can only be described as a total victory. Pakistan has faced massive vehicle losses, specifically in regards to their air power, but has given us the signs of a fast-approaching nuclear ultimatum. Their stance is certainly clear enough - we cannot threaten the security of the Pakistani state any further without potentially resulting in a nuclear attack. Ironically, the on-the-ground map of the war provided by the United Nations is rather muddled in the specifics, and we will be forced to use our own data to describe the specifics of our continuing operation.
We have effectively won. We separated China and Pakistan through the liberation of Gilgit. We avoided, at least in this first instance, Pakistani nuclear weapon usage. We showcased ourselves as a rising major power with serious implications into the future. And we did it in a very short time. What remains left to do is to slightly alter our LOC in Azad Kashmir, and continue with liberating the bulk majority of Gilgit-Baltistan.
And deal with China.
The Chinese have now entered the fight, and this deserves pause and analysis. The actual state of China in 2030 is not it’s strongest point, and it is worth noting severe geopolitical factors that will limit their ability to truly project power in this war. Below, we will get into the fine details of the combat operations themselves, but for a moment we need to consider the geostrategic implications of Chinese-Indian aggression.
The last decade has watched as a hypernationalist Chinese government has alienated the international community. While crucial for maintaining support at home, China’s hostile actions towards its major trade partners has caused billions of dollars in FDI to flee, and Western companies to relocate supply chains elsewhere. Billions of dollars in FDI was not the end - tens of billions in supply contracts, Western tech fleeing the country amidst security concerns both from themselves and their country’s governments, and emigration of skilled labor to work in the West away from the prying eye of Beijing have all been following suit, unchecked, for the better part of an entire decade.
It doesn’t stop there. That alone is enough to assume that the Chinese economy might be sputtering right now. But it doesn’t account for China’s outstanding debt, and their demographic issues.
Neither of these can be understated. By 2030, the largest demographic cohort in China is the 40-44 year olds. Men who are 40 and older account for 27% of their population. Including women, 54.7% of the Chinese population is 40 or older. This cohort cannot reasonably be expected to fight in a war of any kind. They can work in service positions throughout a war economy, but even that doesn’t really shape the picture. The older population of China relies on a massive social security blanket, one that is very expensive and one that is very much in use. The Chinese government must pay to keep these retirees and older workers alive, even though time will dictate that they will become more expensive and less economically useful to the war effort as time goes on.
Speaking of payments, nothing has been done in the last decade to alleviate the very real and very present Chinese debt bubble. Not to be confused with China’s debt trap diplomacy - which for some reason for a brief period of time in the 20’s end up turning into a ploy where they simply gave money away - China’s debt bubble is real, and a real issue. Even as early as 2019, total debt-GDP ratio in China topped 300%, and although national debt still sat at 50%, This isn’t an issue that can be swept under the rug. China’s tax base is shortening, their population is aging out, and eventually they will have to pay for it.
We are very much looking at a China that could face internal disaster if it overcommits to war with India, and although that is not our current goal it must be kept in mind if we continue to defeat China on the battlefield. Beijing is not to be undervalued as a warring party - they are still capable of launching immensely powerful attacks. We should focus on guaranteeing localized air superiority, establishing logistical superiority, and denying Chinese ground combatants from resupply or ease of movement.
[M] this is the only dickwaving part of the entire post, i just wanted to include the source to the title quote [/M]
But we are going to defeat China on the battlefield. They are sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers into a maelstrom they do not belong in and cannot stop. Their action in joining the war makes no sense to us nor the international community, and especially none to a civilian population which has been gagged down from protesting amidst economic stagnation and no internal reform. We are going to mow them down and send what few sons they have home in body bags. We will make their people question why they’re involved in such a stupid conflict, and their people will be right. Because this is modern war. And in modern war, there is nothing sweet nor fitting in your dying. You will die like a dog, for no good reason.

The Kashmir War

Logistics and Support - Defeat in Detail
Wars are won long before they are fought, and they’re also won long after they’re fought. Being able to reinforce Gilgit as easily as one can reinforce Kargil is critical to ensuring that India does not lose localized supremacy in the area. We are deploying an additional 350,000 soldiers into Jammu and Kashmir as well as reinforcing all lost numbers, which will bring the total numerical presence of Indian forces in Kashmir to 1,000,000 soldiers. The roughly 30,000 soldiers who took Gilgit will be reinforced to a massive 450,000 man force, and the 150,000 in Azad Kashmir will be pressed up to 300,000. The remaining 250,000 soldiers will remain in Jammu and Kashmir, providing much needed peacekeeping and support roles.
Logistics is the name of the game. Kashmirs’ winters are deadly and we must take all precautions necessary to secure firm supply lines, even during the winter months. The routes previously used to liberate Gilgit and Skardu will be improved to the same standard that the routes in Jammu & Kashmir were before the operation began. This will help solidify our position, as no other country has more than one road into Gilgit.
Improving Gilgit and Skardu airfields is a longer process, but it is critically important. We will reinforce both airfields to be able to hold 4th and 5th gen fighters as well as strategic transports. With Gilgit and Skardu included, we will have 6 local airfields capable of staging fighter jets out of (with even more when nearby states like Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Uttarkhand are included), and that can reinforce ground forces through transport jets. China does not operate any significant airfields in the greater Kashmir region, and Pakistan’s only remaining field is in Muzaffarabad, on the eastern side of the city. We are now committing the full weight of the Indian Engineering Corps and all transport aircraft available to move soldiers where they are needed.
Air War - Localized Superiority
China’s attack would have been detected as it were being staged. The specifics of SILENT HOUSE included large amounts of ELINT and SIGINT equipment sortieing both the Chinese and Pakistani borders for good reason - we knew the Chinese may try something and wanted ample time to counter it. SILENT CURTAIN called for the movement of all 80 of India’s 5th Generation Garuda aircraft into Kashmir, and they are on standby in case of this exact threat.
Now it’s time to talk about China’s ability to project air superiority over Kashmir.
Here is a map of all current PLAAF bases. The closest two bases to Kashmir are in Chengdu and Lanzhou. The J-20 has an effective combat radius of 2,000km, the J-16 1,500. Neither of these are within a comfortable range to arrive on site over Kashmir, provide sustained air superiority, and make it home without a risky amount of fuel usage and a heavy dose of pilot fatigue. There are closer, civilian bases that these aircraft could be staged at shown here. but even these 3-4 closer airfields provide a problem of space. These are not the large international airports of Chengdu and Lanzhou, these are local airfields. It would be veritably impossible to operate a 5th generation aircraft out of them without massive retrofitting, the likes of which we have not seen China attempt at all.
China’s long range air refueling fleet is miniscule - only 13 aircraft in total. With 130 fighters expected to sortie from nearly and beyond full combat range, engage against the Indian Air Force which will be in larger numbers, more well rested, and able to stay on site longer, and face the reality of dug in Indian AAA systems, it is numerically, technically, logistically, and humanly impossible for China to maintain air dominance over Kashmir.
That assumes, of course, that the J-20 is a quality stealth jet. The J-20 has known maneuverability and stealth issues that were never properly corrected during its initial testing and implementation phase. India has been able to detect the jet with ease for a decade. The J-20 is less maneuverable during dogfighting too, as its notoriously underqualified engines lack the supermaneuverability provided in the F-22, F-35, Su-57, and yes, the Garuda. In short and in long, there is simply no way that J-20 and J-16 sorties can provide aerial superiority anywhere within Kashmir’s airspace.
The Chinese may be attempting to mitigate this risk by bringing large numbers of AAA, but our focus on ground operations will cover how even these platforms are damned to underperform.
Thus, the name of the game for Indian air superiority is to hold it at all costs. We will reinforce our air superiority fleet with the total quantity of Tejas Mk I and Mk II aircraft, and resupply all downed Su-30’s. Garuda will be pressed into the front lines once production completes, but at the time we already have all Garuda deployed onto the battlefield. All aircraft losses from the first initial combat press will be replaced where possible, with certain numbers bolstered.
Indian Air-To-Ground is free to fire on all Chinese and Pakistani ground forces attempting to enter Gilgit-Baltistan. Our ELINT and SIGINT aircraft overhead should give ample time to see the ground movements - as there are very few ways into Kashmir - and coordinate appropriately sized strike packages.
Aircraft are additionally cleared to engage Chinese AAA on the Chinese side of the border - we still have plenty of SEAD aircraft operating in the area and their primary task will be to continue suppressing Chinese and Pakistani AAA equipment. One hundred IAI Harop loitering munitions will be deployed to the region to hunt down and destroy Chinese and Pakistani SAM assets as they open fire on Indian air assets.
Aircraft available:
Unit Number Category
IAI Harop 100 Loitering SEAD Munition
SEPECAT Jaguar 79 Ground Attack/SEAD
HAL Garuda 77 Stealth Multirole
Mirage 2000TI 29 Multirole
Sukhoi Su-30MKI 234 Air Superiority
Dassault Rafale 27 Multirole
HAL Tejas Mk. 2 60 Multirole
HAL Tejas Mk. 1A 20 Multirole
HAL Tejas Mk. 1 24 Multirole
MiG-21 Bison 75 Interceptor
MiG-29UPG 30 Air Superiority
Beriev A-50EI 3 AEW&C
EMB-145 Netra 2 AEW&C
Global 5000 2 ELINT
Gulfstream III SRA 1 EW/ELINT
Ilyushin Il-78 6 Aerial Refueling
Gilgit-Baltistan - Rush and Resupply
MAP
We have had a resounding victory in Gilgit-Baltistan. The Pakistani forces fell apart virtually on contact, and even taking Gilgit itself proved far easier than we were hoping. We hold the Karakoram highway from Gilgit to the Chinese border, and all three passages from China proper into Kashmir. Now we have to continue our consolidation, and prepare for the Chinese attack.
You can't move tanks or troops from Aksai Chin into Kashmir because there's no roads. The mountains are some of the steepest in the world, and there are no passages that a tank or car of any kind can make it through. It literally cannot be done. China’s operation specifically focuses on moving its forces through Gilgit Baltistan, so we should not have to worry about any attack through Aksai Chin.
Which leaves the three passages from China proper into Gilgit-Baltistan. The Khunjerab, Mintaka, and Kilik passes are the only three ways that man can move between Chinese territory proper and Kashmir. Mintaka is the pass that hosts the Karakoram Highway - now under Indian control and halfway bombed to hell. The other two passages are not paved at all, and will result in terrible losses should the PLA attempt to move large quantities of troops through it.
Our objective on our eastern flank is to prevent China from making any headway into Kashmir. To accomplish this, we will continue to airstrike the road close to the Chinese border and ensure that any connections to the three passes are destroyed. Secondly, an advanced force of sappers will mine the Karakoram Highway north of Karimabad, making transit nearly impossible. Karimabad itself will host a 100,000 man advanced force, equipped primarily to defend the city with heavy amounts of AAA, standoff and rocket artillery, and of course, local air support through attack helicopters launched from Skardu and Gilgit.
The Chinese operation seems to be a focus on overwhelming force. This is flawed for two primary reasons. Firstly, Indian intelligence assets will be able to detect, identify, and target any Chinese equipment set up to fire on their side of the border - our air cover will be easily capable of countering this. As for their frontal assault, it’s all coming down one road. The Karakoram highway is the only paved road into Gilgit Baltistan - while a tank doesn’t necessarily need to be on a road to move, it does need fuel. And those fuel trucks will need roads. China is pouring forces through a narrow pathway that we have armed and defended, and through which we have aerial superiority.
Back in Gilgit, the city should be made into a total fortress. Multiple rings of defenses should line the Karakorum Highway going northbound, and our best long-range AAA should be positioned on nearby mountains to detect and defend from PAF and PLAAF aircraft. 250,000 soldiers will be stationed in Gilgit with the expressed purpose of holding the city at all costs.
The last 100,000 men forward deployed into Gilgit will be responsible for securing the western flank. 50,000 men are to proceed towards Chilas, where they will take the city and then both destroy and mine the two roads leading into Pakistan. The other 50,000 men will proceed towards Shandur National Park, where they will mine the Gilgit-Chitral road through the park, taking up just to the east in the small town of Phander.
Unit Number Category
S-400 Triumf 7 Batteries SAM/ABM
Akash Two Regiments (250 launchers + 700 missiles each) SAM
Akash Three Squadrons (125 missiles each) SAM
Kub 90 SAM
S-125 Neva/Pechora 100 SAM
S-200 Angara/Vega/Dubna 100 SAM
9K35 Strela-10 150 SAM
Bofors 40mm Gun 500 AAA
ZSU-23-2 500 AAA
9K22 Tunguska 30 SPAA
ZSU-23-4m “Shilka” 30 SPAA
HAL Sinh 60 Attack Helicopter
HAL Rudra 24 Attack Helicopter
HAL Vyagrha 60 Utility Helicopter
HAL Dhruv 40 Utility Helicopter
T90M 300 MBT
T90S “Bhishma” 300 MBT
Varaha 250 Next Gen MBT
T-72 Ajeya 500 MBT
BMP-2 “Sarath” 800 IFV
Abhay 250 IFV
TATA Kestrel 700 APC
2S35 Koalitsiya-IN 100 SPG
S21 Gvozdika 30 SPG
Pinaka MBRL 30 MLRS
Smerch 9K58 MBRL 20 MLRS
BM-21 100 MLRS
M-46 400 Towed Artillery
D-30 200 Towed Artillery
Tuphanu 300 Towed Artillery
Utility Cars and Trucks A lot Transport
Ground Personnel 450,000 Troops
Azad Kashmir - Line in the Sand
Map
Total victory was the stated goal, but things have changed. Pakistan’s use of nuclear weapons is a clear message - if we continue to threaten them, they will do the unthinkable. Our original goal of taking all of Azad Kashmir is still something we look forward to, but at present moment it is something not worth the risk of starting a nuclear confrontation.
Azad Kashmir is different from Gilgit-Baltistan in that it is within a close striking range to Islamabad proper, and thus we have to toe the line much more closely with our actions. Our actions, specifically, should be to reinforce what we have and effectively push the LOC one step closer to the proper border.
We cannot, and will not, be pushing further into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir in Azad Kashmir. We have liberated the northern Neelum Valley Road, We have established a foothold to the south. With the war against China ramping up, it would be unwise for us to press towards a brutal siege against Muzaffarabad or New Mirpur City at this time. The additionally reinforced soldiers will be tasked with constructing the required linkages between our newly controlled land, as well as arming, patrolling, and mining the new LOC.
Unit Number Category
S-400 Triumf 7 Batteries SAM/ABM
Akash Eight Squadrons (125 missiles each) SAM
Kub 60 SAM
9K35 Strela-10 100 SAM
S-125 Neva/Pechora 100 SAM
S-200 Angara/Vega/Dubna 100 SAM
Bofors 40mm Gun 300 AAA
ZSU-23-2 300 AAA
9K22 Tunguska 20 SPAA
ZSU-23-4m “Shilka” 30 SPAA
HAL Sinh 50 Attack Helicopter
HAL Rudra 24 Attack Helicopter
HAL Vyagrha 60 Utility Helicopter
HAL Dhruv 40 Utility Helicopter
T90M 50 MBT
T90S “Bhishma” 50 MBT
Varaha 50 Next Gen MBT
Arjun Mk. 1 50 MBT
Arjun Mk. 2 50 MBT
T-72 Ajeya 1000 MBT
BMP-2 “Sarath” 1000 IFV
Abhay 100 IFV
TATA Kestrel 800 APC
2S35 Koalitsiya-IN 40 SPG
S21 Gvozdika 60 SPG
Pinaka MBRL 12 MLRS
Smerch 9K58 MBRL 20 MLRS
M-46 400 Towed Artillery
D-30 200 Towed Artillery
Tuphanu 200 Towed Artillery
Dhanush 200 Towed Artillery
Utility Cars and Trucks A lot Transport
Ground Personnel 300,000 Troops
Nuclear Contingency and Response
With the entry of China into the Kashmir Conflict, Indian High Command has assessed that the risk of a nuclear exchange has increased dramatically. As a result, the Indian nuclear arsenal and anti-ballistic missile shield has been placed on high alert, with launchers and missiles disseminated throughout the entirety of the country to prevent the complete elimination of the Indian arsenal during a Chinese-Pakistani first strike. Perhaps most importantly, the entire Indian SSBN fleet (two Makara-class SSBNs and four Arihant-class SSBNs) has left port equipped with nuclear-tipped K5 and K6 ballistic missiles. The fleet is currently lingering in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
While the Indian Navy has thus far remained uninvolved in the conflict, the surface fleet has been placed on high alert, and is tasked with identifying and tracking any Chinese naval assets (particularly submarines and especially SSBNs). This task should be assisted by Indian listening posts in the Christmas, Cocos (Keeling), and Andaman Island Chains, which give India surveillance capabilities over both the Sunda Strait, the Straits of Malacca, and the Kra Canal. The Indian Navy will not fire unless fired upon or given updates orders by the Ministry of Defence. [S] In the event that the war goes nuclear, the Indian Navy will be tasked with destroying any and all Chinese nuclear submarines that can be found. [/S]
In the name of preventing a nuclear exchange, India has announced a clarification to its nuclear doctrine. While India maintains its no first use doctrine (and calls upon all nuclear states to take this burden upon themselves), India has clarified that for the duration of this war, India will regard any nuclear attack, tactical or strategic, against Indian assets by China or Pakistan as an attack by both countries, requiring retaliation against both countries. [S] With this new doctrine, India hopes that China will place additional pressure upon Pakistan to prevent a nuclear escalation, as the new doctrine means that a Pakistani nuke launched at India or Indian troops will result in a nuclear exchange between India and China as well. [/S]
As a demonstration of its nuclear capability, and in response to Pakistani nuclear tests, India will detonate a 50 kiloton nuclear warhead at its Pokhran Test Range site. This detonation will be announced 24 hours in advance so as to avoid any Chinese or Pakistani false alarms triggering a retaliatory strike.
submitted by deusos to Geosim [link] [comments]


2020.05.26 03:17 peter_j_ [SUMMARY] Chinese Export Catalogue, 2027

AERIAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Fighter Jets

 
Nomination Type Cost
J-20 5th Gen Jet Fighter US$72m
J-31 5th Gen Multirole Strike Fighter $60m
Chengdu ​JF-17B Thunder 4th Gen Multirole ​US$38m
Chengdu J-10A Single Seat Multirole US$30m
Chengdu J-10B Upgraded, AESA, IRST US$40m
Chengdu J-10C Upgraded, true 4th+ Gen US$60m
Shenyang J-11A Based on Su-27 US$45m
Shenyang J-11B Indigenous J-11. Also available in twin seat variant US$50m
Shenyang J-15 Carrier Variant of J-11 US$55m
Shenyang J-16 Twin Seat, Twin Engine Strike Jet US$55m
J-8T BVR Interceptor with JL-10A X-band radar, WP-13B-II engines US$25m
 
Light Attack Jets Cost
Guizhou JL-9 US$5m
Guizhou JL-9G US$9m
Hongdu JL-8 US$5m
Hongdu L-15 US$15m
Nanchang Q-5 US$15m
 

UAV and UCAV

There are a lot of them, but here is a list of the best and most exportable ones:
UCAV Type Cost
Hongdu GJ-11 MALE Stealth Jet UCAV, 3,000kg payload $20m
AVIC Cloud Shadow MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CAIG Wing Loon II MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CASC CH-7 HALE UCAV Stealth Jet UCAV, 2,500kg payload, not in production yet $Unknown
Guizhou WZ-2000 MALE Jet UCAV, 80kg payload $9m
UAV Type Cost
SYAC Divine Eagle HALE Recon UAV, with AESA, Optronic cameras and thermal imaging $8m
Guizhou Soar Dragon MALE Recon UAV, AEWAC $9m
GAIC Harrier Hawk MALE SARV $6m
BZK-005 Sea Eagle Maritime Catapult launched Recon UAV $5m
 

Larger Aircraft

 
Bomber Cost
Xian H-6 US$26m
Xian H-6K US$30m
[Xian H-20 $450m
 
Maritime Patrol Cost
​AG-600 (TA-600) ​​US$22m
Y-8 MPA US$15m
Y-8GX6 US$25m
HX-21 $135m
 
Transport Cost
Harbin Y-12 US$5m
Shaanxi Y-8 US$15m
Shaanxi Y-9 US$19m
Shaanxi Y-30 $30m
Xian Y-20A US$160m
 
ISR Cost
KJ-200 AEW US$70m
KJ-2000 AEW US$90m
KJ-3000 AEW US$180m
 
EW/ELINT Cost
Shenyang J-11D US$45m
Shenyang J-16D US$70.00 mln
​Y-9G ​ US$25.00 mln
Y-30G $38m
 
In Air Refuelling Plane Cost
RFY-21 $130m
Y-30Y $55m

Helicopters

Helicopter Type Cost
CAIC Z-10 Recon / Light Attack $17m
CAIC Z-18G Utility / Transport $20m
CAIC Z-18J ASW / Naval $24m
CAIC Z-18M MEDEVAC $12m
Harbin Z-19 Attack $29m
Harbin Z-20 Transport / Utility $10m
CAIG Z-50 Advanced Attack $30m
Avicopter AC-330 Super Heavy Transport $28m
 

NAVAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 
Carriers Cost
Type 002 CV US$1,200m
Type 003 CV US$1,500m
Type 004 CVN US$2,500m
Drone Destroyer $2,000m
 

Amphibious Naval Craft

 
Designation Type Cost
Type 075 class LHA US$750m
Type 081 class LPD US$500m
Type 071 Yuzhao class LPD US$300m
Type 072A class LST US$105m
Type 073 IV Yunshu class LSM US$80m
Type 074A Yubei class LSM US$55m
Jingsah II class LCAC US$15m
Type 726 Yuyi class LCAC US$35m
Type 067 Yunnan class LCU US$3.5m
Type 068 class LCU ​US$5m
Type 271III LCU US$4.5m
Type 271IIIA LCU US$9m
 

Major Surface Combatants

 
Cruisers Cost
Type 055 class US$1,250m
Type 055B class US$1,600m
Type 065 Class US$2,000m
 
Destroyers Cost
Type 051C Luzhou class US$800m
Type 052B Luyang I class US$500m
Type 052C Luyang II class US$800m
Type 052D class US$1,150m
Type 062 Class $1,500m
 
Frigates Cost
Type 053H3 Jiangwei-II class US$200m
Type 054 Jiangkai-I class US$375m
Type 054A Jiangkai-II class US$450m
​Type 054B Jiankai-III class ​ US$500m
Type 054C US$650m
Type 058 Optionally Manned Frigate US$650m
 
Corvettes Cost
Type 056 Jiangdao class US$45m
Type 056A Jiangdao class ​ US$60m
Type 057 $110m
 
Missile Ships Cost
Azmat class FACM* US$22m
Houdong class FACM US$25m
Type 022 Houbei class FAC US$15m
Type 023 Fast Missile Boat $25m
 
Patrol / Coast Guard Cost
1,000t class Type-I cutter US$14m
1,000t class Type-II cutter US$20m
1,500t class cutter US$45m
3,000t class cutter US$65m
Pattani class OPV US$45m
Type 718 class cutter US$30m
Zhaotou II 15,000 ton cutter $60m
 

Submarines

 
SSK Cost
Type 039G Song class US$340m
Type 039G1 Song class US$350m
Type 041 Yuan class US$600m
 
SSN Cost
Type 093 'Shang' class US$1,200m
Type 093G 'Shang' class US$1,400m
Type 095 class US$1,600m
 
SSBN Cost
Type 043 'Q US$750m
Type 094 'Jin' class US$1,500m
Type 096 'Tang' class US$2,500m
 
MSV Cost
Daijang class DSRV US$70m
 

Support Ships

 
Auxiliary Cost
Dajiang class AO US$120m
Dandao class AO not in production
Danlin class AO not in production
Dayun class AOR US$165m
Fuchang class AO US$70m
Fuchi class AOR US$230m
Fuijan class AO US$65m
Fulin class AOC US$45m
Fuqing class AO US$215m
Fusu class AOR US$325m
Fuzhou class AOC US$40m
Hongqi class AOC US$60m
Leizhou class AOC US$50m
Qinghaihu Class AOR US$433m
Shengli class AOC US$40m
Yantai class AOR US$165m
 
Transport Cost
Fuxianhu class Troop Transport US$150m
Qiongsha class troop transport US$96m
Type 904 class transport US$100m
 
Hospital Ship Cost
Daishandao class AH US$125m
Qiongsha class AH US$96m
Shichang class AGF US$225m
 
Icebreaker Cost
Yanbing class icebreaker US$75m
Yanha class icebreaker US$55m
 

MISSILE SYSTEMS EXPORT

 
ICBMs Cost
DongFeng 31 US$12m
DongFeng 31A US$14m
DongFeng 41 US$20m
 
IRBMs Cost
DongFeng 16 US$12m
DongFeng 26 US$15m
 
MRBMs Cost
DongFeng 21D US$6m
DongFeng 25 US$8m
KT-II US$6m
KT-IIA US$6.5m
KT-III US$7.5m
 
SRBMs Cost
B-611 US$6m
Dong Feng 15 US$2.9m
 
Tactical Missiles Notes Cost
CJ-25 Air Launched Cruise Missile, 500kg warhead $900k
DF-10B Ground-launched cruise missile. Speed limited to Mach 4.5 with low-observable features and a more precise guidance system built into the launch vehicle. Range of 1,200km $20m per system, $400k per missile
YJ-200 VLS LAunched Cruise Missile, range of 800km $600k per missile
YJ-22 VLS-launched Antiship Missile, range of 550km $500k per missile
YJ-22A Submarine launched Cruise Missile, range of 550km $550k per missile
YJ-22B Land Attack Cruise Missile launched from shipping containers, range of 700km $5m per system and $600k per missile
YJ-22C Ground-launched Antiship Missile, range of 700km $18m per launcher and $500k per missile

Air Defence

Missile Defence System Summary Cost
Taikong Mubiao Daodan Ballistic Missile Defence Brigade (20 Vehicles) $2.5 bn
Terminal Interceptor Battalion Mobile Modular BMD (10 Massive Vehicles) $1 bn
[HQ-29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants ABM SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $600m
HQ-19 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $400m
HQ-9 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $200m
HQ-7 SHORAD Battery (22 Vehicles) $120m
HQ-7 FM-80_Self-Propelled) Single SHORAD Vehicle $8m
LW-30 Laser Point Vefence Vehicle $12m
DY-90 Towed SHORAD Missile Launcher $2.5m
 

LAND SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Armoured Vehicles

Main Battle Tanks Cost
Type 102 $8m
Type 90-IIM US$4m
Type 96 US$5m
Type 96G US$6m
Type 99 US$2.5m
Type 99A US$4.5m
Type 99A2 US$5m
 
Light Tanks Cost
Type 63A US$2.5m
Type 92A2L US$3.5m
​VT5 ​ US$4m
ZBD2000 (105mm) US$5m
 
Tank Destroyers Cost
PTL02 US$1m
​ZTL09 ​ US$3.5m
 
APCs Cost
Type 92 APC US$1m
ZFB-05 US$400k
 
IFVs Cost
Type 92 IFV US$1.75m
Type 97 IFV US$4m
YW 307 US$500k
ZBD-04 US$4.75m
ZBD-08 US$5.5m
ZBL-09 US$6.25m
ZBD2000 Airborne IFV US$6.5m
ZLC2000 Airborne IFV US$7.25m
 

Artillery

 
Artillery Cost
PLZ-09 155mm SP Howitzer $4.5m
PLZ-07 122mm SP Howitzer
AH-4 Lightweight Towed 155mm US$3m
[PLL-01](military-today.com/artillery/pll_01.htm) 155mm Towed Howitzer US$1.25m
Type 59 howitzer US$750k
Type 60 Field Gun US$600k
Type 66 howitzer US$600k
Type 83 howitzer US$750k
Type 86 howitzer US$1m
Type 89 122mm SP howitzer US$1.2m
 
AA Guns Cost
PGZ-07 US$15m
Type 59 (57mm) US$1.25m
Type 74 (37mm) US$1m
Type 80 US$3m
Type 85 US$1m
Type 87 US$1.5m
Type 90 (35mm) US$2.75m
Type 95 SPAAG US$12.5m
 
ATGM 4x4 Cost
Type 89 ATGM US$2.25m
Type 92 ATGM US$2.25m
 
Heavy Misc Cost
WS2100 Series 6x6 $60k
WS2200 Series 8x8 $140k
WS2300 Series 6x6 Offroad $300k
WS2400 Series 8x8 Offroad $520k
WS2500 Series 10x10 $1.2m
WS2600 Series 8x10 Offroad $1.7m
WS51 and 52 Series $2.4m
TA5380 Series Average $1.9m
 
Light Misc Cost
QL550 US$75k
8M US$1.25m
QD2008 US$1m
VP3 US$1m
BJ2020 US$15k
BJ2022 US$25k
EQ2050 US$20k
NJ2045 US$25k
NJ2046 US$30k
 
 

CIVILIAN PURCHASE INFORMATION

Company Industry
Cosco Group Commercial shipping
China Merchant Holdings int. Port Development
Guangxi LiuGong & XCMG Heavy equipment
CNPC Exploration & Development Company Energy exploration
China Three Gorges Group Renewables (solar, wind, hydro)
China State Grid Corp Power Grid
China Railway Group & China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation Rail
China Railway Corporation High Speed Rail
China National Nuclear Corporation Nuclear energy
 

NUCLEAR REACTOR EXPORTS

Product MWe Cost
CAP1400 1400 US$7.5bn
HCPR-1 1170 US$6.5bn
ACPR-1000+ 1050 US$13.6bn
HTGR-200 200 US$2.2bn
 

High Speed Trains

Model Speed (op/max) Cost
CR400AF/BF 300/468 km/h US$2.1m
CRH380A 350/486 km/h US$1.8m
CRH6 200/346 km/h US$1.2m
 

SATELLITE EXPORTS

Communications Sats Cost
Fenghuo US$525m
Shentong US$125m
Earth Observation Sats Cost
Yaogan Optical US$700m
Yaogan SAR US$1,350m
Huanjing SAR US$1,150m
 

If you would like to place an order for any civilian or military items, this is the only location to buy them.

Credit where it is due to S01780 and Spummydue
submitted by peter_j_ to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]


2020.05.18 19:55 peter_j_ [SUMMARY] Chinese Export Catalogue 2026 (Now with more updated missiles!)

AERIAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Fighter Jets

 
Nomination Type Cost
J-20 5th Gen Jet Fighter US$72m
J-31 5th Gen Multirole Strike Fighter $60m
Chengdu ​JF-17B Thunder 4th Gen Multirole ​US$38m
Chengdu J-10A Single Seat Multirole US$30m
Chengdu J-10B Upgraded, AESA, IRST US$40m
Chengdu J-10C Upgraded, true 4th+ Gen US$60m
Shenyang J-11A Based on Su-27 US$45m
Shenyang J-11B Indigenous J-11. Also available in twin seat variant US$50m
Shenyang J-15 Carrier Variant of J-11 US$55m
Shenyang J-16 Twin Seat, Twin Engine Strike Jet US$55m
J-8T BVR Interceptor with JL-10A X-band radar, WP-13B-II engines US$25m
 
Light Attack Jets Cost
Guizhou JL-9 US$5m
Guizhou JL-9G US$9m
Hongdu JL-8 US$5m
Hongdu L-15 US$15m
Nanchang Q-5 US$15m
 

UAV and UCAV

There are a lot of them, but here is a list of the best and most exportable ones:
UCAV Type Cost
Hongdu GJ-11 MALE Stealth Jet UCAV, 3,000kg payload $20m
AVIC Cloud Shadow MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CAIG Wing Loon II MALE UCAV, 400kg payload $15m
CASC CH-7 HALE UCAV Stealth Jet UCAV, 2,500kg payload, not in production yet $Unknown
Guizhou WZ-2000 MALE Jet UCAV, 80kg payload $9m
UAV Type Cost
SYAC Divine Eagle HALE Recon UAV, with AESA, Optronic cameras and thermal imaging $8m
Guizhou Soar Dragon MALE Recon UAV, AEWAC $9m
GAIC Harrier Hawk MALE SARV $6m
BZK-005 Sea Eagle Maritime Catapult launched Recon UAV $5m
 

Larger Aircraft

 
Bomber Cost
Xian H-6 US$26m
Xian H-6K US$30m
[Xian H-20 $450m
 
Maritime Patrol Cost
​AG-600 (TA-600) ​​US$22m
Y-8 MPA US$15m
Y-8GX6 US$25m
HX-21 $135m
 
Transport Cost
Harbin Y-12 US$5m
Shaanxi Y-8 US$15m
Shaanxi Y-9 US$19m
Shaanxi Y-30 $30m
Xian Y-20A US$160m
 
ISR Cost
KJ-200 AEW US$70m
KJ-2000 AEW US$90m
KJ-3000 AEW US$180m
 
EW/ELINT Cost
Shenyang J-11D US$45m
Shenyang J-16D US$70.00 mln
​Y-9G ​ US$25.00 mln
Y-30G $38m
 
In Air Refuelling Plane Cost
RFY-21 $130m
Y-30Y $55m

Helicopters

Helicopter Type Cost
CAIC Z-10 Recon / Light Attack $17m
CAIC Z-18G Utility / Transport $20m
CAIC Z-18J ASW / Naval $24m
CAIC Z-18M MEDEVAC $12m
Harbin Z-19 Attack $29m
Harbin Z-20 Transport / Utility $10m
CAIG Z-50 Advanced Attack $30m
Avicopter AC-330 Super Heavy Transport $28m
 

NAVAL SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Amphibious Naval Craft

 
Designation Type Cost
Type 075 class LHA US$750m
Type 081 class LPD US$500m
Type 071 Yuzhao class LPD US$300m
Type 072A class LST US$105m
Type 073 IV Yunshu class LSM US$80m
Type 074A Yubei class LSM US$55m
Jingsah II class LCAC US$15m
Type 726 Yuyi class LCAC US$35m
Type 067 Yunnan class LCU US$3.5m
Type 068 class LCU ​US$5m
Type 271III LCU US$4.5m
Type 271IIIA LCU US$9m
 

Major Surface Combatants

 
Destroyers Cost
Type 051C Luzhou class US$800m
Type 052B Luyang I class US$500m
Type 052C Luyang II class US$800m
Type 052D class US$1,150m
Type 055 class US$1,750m
 
Frigates Cost
Type 053H3 Jiangwei-II class US$200m
Type 054 Jiangkai-I class US$375m
Type 054A Jiangkai-II class US$500m
​Type 054B Jiankai-III class ​ US$650m
 
Corvettes Cost
Type 056 Jiangdao class US$45m
Type 056A Jiangdao class ​ US$60m
Type 057 $110m
 
Missile Ships Cost
Azmat class FACM* US$22m
Houdong class FACM US$25m
Type 022 Houbei class FAC US$15m
Type 023 Fast Missile Boat $25m
 
Patrol / Coast Guard Cost
1,000t class Type-I cutter US$14m
1,000t class Type-II cutter US$20m
1,500t class cutter US$45m
3,000t class cutter US$65m
Pattani class OPV US$45m
Type 718 class cutter US$30m
Zhaotou II 15,000 ton cutter $60m
 

Submarines

 
SSK Cost
Type 039G Song class US$340m
Type 039G1 Song class US$350m
Type 041 Yuan class US$600m
 
SSN Cost
Type 093 'Shang' class US$1,200m
Type 093G 'Shang' class US$1,400m
Type 095 class US$1,600m
 
SSBN Cost
Type 043 'Q US$750m
Type 094 'Jin' class US$1,500m
Type 096 'Tang' class US$2,500m
 
MSV Cost
Daijang class DSRV US$70m
 

Support Ships

 
Auxiliary Cost
Dajiang class AO US$120m
Dandao class AO not in production
Danlin class AO not in production
Dayun class AOR US$165m
Fuchang class AO US$70m
Fuchi class AOR US$230m
Fuijan class AO US$65m
Fulin class AOC US$45m
Fuqing class AO US$215m
Fusu class AOR US$325m
Fuzhou class AOC US$40m
Hongqi class AOC US$60m
Leizhou class AOC US$50m
Qinghaihu Class AOR US$433m
Shengli class AOC US$40m
Yantai class AOR US$165m
 
Transport Cost
Fuxianhu class Troop Transport US$150m
Qiongsha class troop transport US$96m
Type 904 class transport US$100m
 
Hospital Ship Cost
Daishandao class AH US$125m
Qiongsha class AH US$96m
Shichang class AGF US$225m
 
Icebreaker Cost
Yanbing class icebreaker US$75m
Yanha class icebreaker US$55m
 

MISSILE SYSTEMS EXPORT

 
ICBMs Cost
DongFeng 31 US$12m
DongFeng 31A US$14m
DongFeng 41 US$20m
 
IRBMs Cost
DongFeng 16 US$12m
DongFeng 26 US$15m
 
MRBMs Cost
DongFeng 21D US$6m
DongFeng 25 US$8m
KT-II US$6m
KT-IIA US$6.5m
KT-III US$7.5m
 
SRBMs Cost
B-611 US$6m
Dong Feng 15 US$2.9m
 
Tactical Missiles Notes Cost
CJ-25 Air Launched Cruise Missile, 500kg warhead $900k
DF-10B Ground-launched cruise missile. Speed limited to Mach 4.5 with low-observable features and a more precise guidance system built into the launch vehicle. Range of 1,200km $20m per system, $400k per missile
YJ-200 VLS LAunched Cruise Missile, range of 800km $600k per missile
YJ-22 VLS-launched Antiship Missile, range of 550km $500k per missile
YJ-22A Submarine launched Cruise Missile, range of 550km $550k per missile
YJ-22B Land Attack Cruise Missile launched from shipping containers, range of 700km $5m per system and $600k per missile
YJ-22C Ground-launched Antiship Missile, range of 700km $18m per launcher and $500k per missile

Air Defence

Missile Defence System Summary Cost
Taikong Mubiao Daodan Ballistic Missile Defence Brigade (20 Vehicles) $2.5 bn
Terminal Interceptor Battalion Mobile Modular BMD (10 Massive Vehicles) $1 bn
[HQ-29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-9#Variants ABM SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $600m
HQ-19 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $400m
HQ-9 SAM Battery (8 Launchers) $200m
HQ-7 SHORAD Battery (22 Vehicles) $120m
HQ-7 FM-80_Self-Propelled) Single SHORAD Vehicle $8m
LW-30 Laser Point Vefence Vehicle $12m
DY-90 Towed SHORAD Missile Launcher $2.5m
 

LAND SYSTEMS EXPORTS

 

Armoured Vehicles

Main Battle Tanks Cost
Type 102 $8m
Type 90-IIM US$4m
Type 96 US$5m
Type 96G US$6m
Type 99 US$2.5m
Type 99A US$4.5m
Type 99A2 US$5m
 
Light Tanks Cost
Type 63A US$2.5m
Type 92A2L US$3.5m
​VT5 ​ US$4m
ZBD2000 (105mm) US$5m
 
Tank Destroyers Cost
PTL02 US$1m
​ZTL09 ​ US$3.5m
 
APCs Cost
Type 92 APC US$1m
ZFB-05 US$400k
 
IFVs Cost
Type 92 IFV US$1.75m
Type 97 IFV US$4m
YW 307 US$500k
ZBD-04 US$4.75m
ZBD-08 US$5.5m
ZBL-09 US$6.25m
ZBD2000 Airborne IFV US$6.5m
ZLC2000 Airborne IFV US$7.25m
 

Artillery

 
Artillery Cost
PLZ-09 155mm SP Howitzer $4.5m
PLZ-07 122mm SP Howitzer
AH-4 Lightweight Towed 155mm US$3m
[PLL-01](military-today.com/artillery/pll_01.htm) 155mm Towed Howitzer US$1.25m
Type 59 howitzer US$750k
Type 60 Field Gun US$600k
Type 66 howitzer US$600k
Type 83 howitzer US$750k
Type 86 howitzer US$1m
Type 89 122mm SP howitzer US$1.2m
 
AA Guns Cost
PGZ-07 US$15m
Type 59 (57mm) US$1.25m
Type 74 (37mm) US$1m
Type 80 US$3m
Type 85 US$1m
Type 87 US$1.5m
Type 90 (35mm) US$2.75m
Type 95 SPAAG US$12.5m
 
ATGM 4x4 Cost
Type 89 ATGM US$2.25m
Type 92 ATGM US$2.25m
 
Heavy Misc Cost
WS2100 Series 6x6 $60k
WS2200 Series 8x8 $140k
WS2300 Series 6x6 Offroad $300k
WS2400 Series 8x8 Offroad $520k
WS2500 Series 10x10 $1.2m
WS2600 Series 8x10 Offroad $1.7m
WS51 and 52 Series $2.4m
TA5380 Series Average $1.9m
 
Light Misc Cost
QL550 US$75k
8M US$1.25m
QD2008 US$1m
VP3 US$1m
BJ2020 US$15k
BJ2022 US$25k
EQ2050 US$20k
NJ2045 US$25k
NJ2046 US$30k
 
 

CIVILIAN PURCHASE INFORMATION

Company Industry
Cosco Group Commercial shipping
China Merchant Holdings int. Port Development
Guangxi LiuGong & XCMG Heavy equipment
CNPC Exploration & Development Company Energy exploration
China Three Gorges Group Renewables (solar, wind, hydro)
China State Grid Corp Power Grid
China Railway Group & China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation Rail
China Railway Corporation High Speed Rail
China National Nuclear Corporation Nuclear energy
 

NUCLEAR REACTOR EXPORTS

Product MWe Cost
CAP1400 1400 US$7.5bn
HCPR-1 1170 US$6.5bn
ACPR-1000+ 1050 US$13.6bn
HTGR-200 200 US$2.2bn
 

High Speed Trains

Model Speed (op/max) Cost
CR400AF/BF 300/468 km/h US$2.1m
CRH380A 350/486 km/h US$1.8m
CRH6 200/346 km/h US$1.2m
 

SATELLITE EXPORTS

Communications Sats Cost
Fenghuo US$525m
Shentong US$125m
Earth Observation Sats Cost
Yaogan Optical US$700m
Yaogan SAR US$1,350m
Huanjing SAR US$1,150m
 

If you would like to place an order for any civilian or military items, this is the only location to buy them.

Credit where it is due to S01780 and Spummydue
submitted by peter_j_ to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]


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